Previous Colloquia:

Family Goals and Behavior in an International Comparative Analysis

16 May 2022

Alicia Adsera, Princeton University

Abstract:

We aim to understand how family goals/values impact family behavior (especially union formation and fertility). We designed a survey to collect information on family goals that includes novel vignettes of family profiles that individuals are asked to evaluate in terms of their "success" and desirability. Family profiles vary by marital status, children, family investments and interactions, educational aspirations and intra-household specialization. We use online panels in Italy, Korea, Norway, Singapore, Spain, Japan, China and the US. Many of these countries have some of the lowest fertility rates in the world, but very different institutional settings, and family formation processes (including nonmarital unions and childbearing). A better understanding of family goals should allow us to theoretically integrate the ways in which mechanisms governing micro-level intimate family contexts scale up to (partially) explain macro-level trends in family patterns.

 

About the presenter:

Alicia Adserà is a Senior Research Scholar and Lecturer in Economics at the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs and director of graduate studies at the Office of Population Research  (Princeton University). Her research interests are economic demography, development and political economy. She works on the interplay between economics and fertility as well as on migration. She holds a PhD in Economics from Boston University. Previously, she was a tenured Associate Professor (University of Illinois at Chicago) and Research Affiliate at the Population Research Center (University of Chicago).


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The Mechanism Between Mortality, Population Growth and Ageing of the Population in the European Lower and Upper Middle Income Countries

11 May 2022

Goran Miladinov

Abstract:

This paper analyses the effect of mortality rates under-five and adult mortality) and population growth on the population ageing in a pooled sample of nine LUMIs European countries. The analysis is implemented in terms of Pooled least squares with cross-section fixed effects methodology.  The novelty used within this research is White two-way cluster standard errors & covariance. This study is based on a database from the World Bank and UN covering the period 1995–2019. Results are consistent with the notion that the increasing ageing process within these countries may be a consequence of the negative impact of population growth and from the influence of adult mortality. The research results are making available quantitative analysis and indights and therefore confirm the presence of solid ties of the mechanism between mortality, population growth and population ageing across these European LUMIs. There was a clear point that mortality acceleration will depend primarily on the level of population growth.

 

About the presenter:

Goran Miladinov has Ph.D. in demography from Faculty of Economics at “Ss. Cyril and Methodius” University in Skopje, Macedonia. Currently, he is working independently as a researcher-demographer. His main research interests include demography, population economics, applied econometrics and statistics for business and economics, and development economics. He also has previous teaching experience in statistics, econometrics and some other management courses as well as job experience in R&D statistics at the State Statistics Offi ce in Skopje. Besides, Goran Miladinov has many other research contributions.


Presentation

Video on Youtube


On the Momentum of Pseudo-Stable Populations

09 May 2022

Roland Rau, Max-Planck-Institute for Demographic Research

Abstract:

Stable population theory remains the standard model for the analytical study of population dynamics. It assumes a closed female population with time-invariant but age-specific fertility and mortality. We begin with a quick refresher about the transient and long-term effects of these assumptions (e.g., the intrinsic rate of growth and the age structure) as well as the classic case of population momentum. Pseudo-stable populations relax the strict fertility assumption: It allows fertility to decline at a constant rate. We show analytically and via simulations how births, population size, population momentum and other characteristics develop in this scenario with varying fertility transition speeds.

 

About the presenter:

Roland Rau is Professor of Demography at the University of Rostock and Senior Research Scientist at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. His main research interests are at the intersection of demography, epidemiology and statistics. He fell in love with demography about 25 years ago when he attended his first demography course which focused on population dynamics and stable population theory. The love for mathematical demography is still there but Roland devotes too little time on it. Roland hopes that his current collaboration with Gustav Feichtinger will change this for the better.


Presentation

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Russian Demographic Datasheet 2022: Regional Diversity Today and in the Future

09 February 2022

Sergei Scherbov, IIASA
Sergey Shulgin, RANEPA

Abstract:

The work is performed in a framework of IIASA-RANEPA project: “Short and long term consequences of COVID-19 on population dynamics in Russia and its regions” funded by IIASA and the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR). Conventional and probabilistic projections for Russia and it regions constitute the main results of the project. Russian Demographic datasheet 2022 is being developed based on those projections. We are developing probabilistic projections for 85 administrative regions of Russia considering urban and rural populations. Projections are based on long-term scenarios for fertility, mortality, and migration until 2050 developed by participants of the project. Regional demographic diversity in Russia is very high and especially in longevity. Those differences have a strong effect on population distribution by age and sex. The datasheet will also include regional estimates of excess mortality in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic where a high level of diversity is also observed.

About the presenter:

Sergei Scherbov is Principal Research Scholar and Project Leader at IIASA’s Population and Just Societies Program.
Sergey Shulgin is vice-director at International Research Laboratory for Demography and Human Capital at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) at Moscow (Russia).


Assessing Population Health: A Closer Look at the Healthy Life Years indicator

19 January 2022

Markus Sauerberg
Federal Institute for Population Research, Wiesbaden, Germany

Abstract:

During my time at the VID, I explored the measurement of population health from a methodological point of viewwith a particular focus on the Healthy Life Years (HLY) indicator. HLY extends classic period life expectancy (LE) by taking into account the health dimension in survivorship. However, HLY is less reliable as compared to LE. For instance, HLY values are showing more uctuations over time
and countries with high LE levels do not necessarily rank also high in terms of HLY. Accordingly, it is worthwhile to take a closer look at the HLY indicator. I examined HLY with respect to its underlying
health and mortality components. Additionally, I tested the impact of population’s educational composition on HLY. While all factors can play a role in specic situations, the health information appears as being the most important driver for the observed HLY estimates.

About the presenter:

Markus studied social sciences and demography at the University of Rostock. After participating in the European Doctoral School of Demography in Rome, he moved to Vienna and joinedMarc Luy’s research group "Health & Longevity" at the VID. Within his ERC project on the estimation sensitivity of the HLY indicator, he wrote his PhD thesis and successfully nished it in the beginning
of 2021. Since January 2022, he is living in Wiesbaden to work on Pavel Grigoriev’s ERC project on regional disparities in cause-specic mortality in Europe hosted at the Federal Institute for Population Research in Germany.


Presentation

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2021


Gendered Experiences of Widowhood and Depression Across Europe: The Role of Loneliness and Financial Resources from a Longitudinal Perspective

23 November 2021

Alina Schmitz
TU Dortmund

Abstract:

Numerous studies document the detrimental consequences of widowhood on mental health. Yet widowhood is – especially for women – a central experience of ageing so that it has been questioned whether women adapt to widowhood more easily. Previous research has provided mixed answers, reecting both methodological and substantive issues, such as differences in statistical modeling and study samples. Furthermore, prior research largely ignores the societal context, although the social consequences of widowhood may vary according to macrosocial conditions. Thus, the mental health consequences of widowhood may both be gendered and context-specic. Based on longitudinal data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), this study analyses the  gendered experiences of widowhood and depressive symptoms in four European regions. A special focus lies on the contribution of loneliness and reduced nancial resources to the detrimental effect of widowhood on mental health.

About the presenter:

Alina Schmitz is a post doctoral researcher working at Technische Universität Dortmund, Chair for Social Structure and Sociology of Ageing Societies. Her research focuses on social inequalities in (mental) health and wellbeing within a cross-country comparative perspective. She is interested in the mechanisms through which gender and socioeconomic status affect health and wellbeing across the life course, as well as in the role of contextual factors for healthy ageing. The presented work is part of her dissertation on gender inequalities in old age depression.

presentation


From the Stork to Fertility Apps

19 July 2021

Ross Barker
Austrian Academy of Sciences

Abstract:

The market for smartphone apps tracking fertility has grown in recent years. These apps brand themselves as empowering their users to reach their reproductive goals, claiming to help achieve a pregnancy more easily than through conventional medical channels. This paper offers the first comprehensive quantification of fertility tracking app users. Using data collected from Google Play Store and Apple App Store, we calculate the most downloaded apps, and the global distribution of use. We use a log-log model fitted on the Google Play Store data to predict the Apple App Store number of installations. Our findings show that 74% of downloads are for just three of 28 apps. The majority of the reviews are left by users in North America, Northern Europe, and Australia; but it is noteworthy that downloads are also widespread in the Global South. Ongoing work aims to investigate the most discussed topics in the reviews.

About the presenter:

Ross Barker is a pre-doctoral research assistant in the Vienna Institute of Demography, jointly part of the Demography of Austria research group and the Family and Fertility research group, joining the BIRTH-LIFE project in September 2020. His work focuses on the intention to have a child, using survey data and web-based data. He intends him-self to find new sources of data to explore how the digital revolution is affecting the intention to have a child, and how increased use of mobile phone apps affects the ability to realise those intentions.


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Covid-19, Social-Distancing and Lock-Downs in a simple Ramsey Economy: The role of networks

15 July 2021

Torben Klarl
University of Bremen

Abstract:

We develop a microfounded network-based SIS model where network connections vary between members. This model is embedded into a standard Ramsey Economy. We study the optimal lockdown policy for a planner who wants to control fatalities of the Covid-19 epidemic while minimizing consumption costs of the lock-down. We show that the optimal lock-down policy depends not only on the fraction of susceptible and infected persons but, importantly, on the average degree node of the network, which is a measure of social distancing. Not accounting for this would lead to biased policy recommendations and to welfare losses. In an extension, we expand our a setting where the agents do not fully take into account the effects of social distancing due to rational inattention motives.


About the presenter:

Torben Klarl currently works at the Department of Business and Eco-nomics at the University of Bre-men. He is also affliated with the BIGSSS (University of Bremen) and O’Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs, Indiana University, Bloomington. Torben’s research focus is on various topics in applied macroeconomics such as sustainability, health, and innovation. More information can be found here.


Video on Youtube

 


MicroWELT – Microsimulation of Disaggregated National Transfer Accounts for the Comparative Study of Welfare State Regimes

18 May 2021

Martin Spielauer
Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO)

Abstract:

This colloquium introduces MicroWELT, a microsimulation platform developed alongside the Horizon 2020 WELTRANSIM (Welfare Transfer Simulation) project. MicroWELT projects the interactions between welfare state regimes, welfare transfers and population ageing, accounting for educational change, life expectancy differentials and changing family patterns. Beyond the WELTRASNIM project, microWELT provides a versatile platform already used in various projects related to health, employment and care. MicroWELT integrates detailed socio-demographic projections with disaggregated National Transfer Accounts (NTAs). We study how disaggregating NTAs by family type and education affects NTA indicators and generational accounts. Our results show that indicators based on disaggregated data can give a very distinct picture of the economic effects of population ageing.


About the presenter:

Martin Spielauer is Senior Economist at the Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO). He has 20 years of experience developing dynamic microsimulation models for the study of socio-demographic change, employment, health, social insurance, pensions and care in various countries. He is the lead developer of the microWELT model presented in this colloquium. As consultant of The World Bank, he leads the development of Dynamis-Pop, a portable model for population, education and health applications in developing countries.


Video on Youtube

 


Baby bust in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic? First results from the new STFF data series

21 April 2021

Tomáš Sobotka & Kryštof Zeman
Wittgenstein Centre (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna)

Abstract:

Past evidence on fertility responses to external shocks, including economic recessions and the out-breaks of infectious diseases, show that people of-ten put their childbearing plans on hold in uncertaintimes. We study the most recent data on monthly birth trends to analyse the initial fertility responses to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Ourresearch, based on new Short-Term Fertility Fluctu-ations (STFF) data series, embedded in the HumanFertility Database, shows the initial signs of the ex-pected “birth recession”. Monthly number of births in many countries have fallen sharply since October2020, often bringing about a clear reversal of theprevious trend. Across 17 countries with lower uc-tuations in births, births fell on average by 5.1% in November 2020, 6.5% in December 2020 and 8.9% in January 2021, compared with the same monthof the previous year. Spain sustained the sharpest drop in the number of births among the analysed countries, with the number of births plummeting by 20% in December 2020 and January 2021. Thecombined effect of rising mortality and falling birthrates is disrupting the balance of births and deaths in many countries, pushing natural population in-crease to record low levels.


About the presenters:

Tomáš Sobotkaleads the researchgroup Fertility and Family at theVienna Institute of Demography (OeAW). He also serves as an external lecturer at the Charles University in Prague and since 2021 as Editor of the Vienna Yearbook of Population Research. Kryštof Zeman is a research scientist with main focus on the Human Fertility Database project at the Department of Demography (Universityof Vienna). The presented work was created incollaboration with Aiva Jasilioniene, Ainhoa Alustiza Galarza, DmitriJdanov and László Németh from the Max Planck Institute for Demo-graphic Research (MPIDR).


Presentation Part I (Zeman)

Presentation Part II (Sobotka)


Born Once, Die Once: Lifetable Relationships for Fertility

9 March 2021

Annette Baudisch & Jesús-Adrián Alvarez
Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics

Abstract:

Everyone dies, once. This basic truth empowers formal mortality research. Similarly, everyone is born, once. This truth has not been fully exploited to benefit formal fertility research. Baudisch and Stott (2019) recently advanced the idea of an offspring population - yet unborn - awaiting the event of birth, introducing a novel survivorship concept for birth.
Formalizing the idea of ’birth survival’, here we define the underlying random variable and derive the central ’triplet’ of survival analysis functions - the hazard, density, and survival. We derive a straightforward framework to capture age-specific patterns of birth, analogous to classical life table functions. Based on age-specific birth counts, we construct a ’birth table’ and meaningful summary measures such as ’birth expectancy’ and associated measures of spread.
We advance a new framework to compare birth schedules across populations and to reveal macrolevel patterns and constraints. Our approach enables method transfer from mortality to fertility research, which can create an integrated framework to study birth and death for the same focal individual. Thereby, insights into the intertwined relationships between birth and death become possible. This, we envision, will open an entirely unexplored line of research.


About the presenter:

Professor Annette Baudisch is Vice Director at the Danish Centre for Demo-graphic Research | CDem within the Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics | CPop. As mathematician and demographer by training, her research advances concepts, theories and methods to study age-patterns of mortality and fertility. Changing the question of “why we age” to “why we age, but other species do not”, and creating the pace-shape framework of aging are her award-winning contributions to science.