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Thu, 4 JulyVegard Skirbekkdetails to be announced 

 


Previous Colloquia:

Childbearing desires and models of “good” parenthood among U.S. young adults

4 June 2024

Sarah Hayford
Ohio State University

Abstract:

Abstract: After many years of stability, birth rates in the United States have declined to their lowest recorded level. This decline has been attributed in part to increasing economic precarity, particularly among young adults, coupled with high demands for investment in children. Still, most young people in the U.S. want to have children at some point. Understanding young people’s plans and goals for childbearing is important for predicting future demographic trends. It can also shed light on the social meanings that young people assign to parenthood. In this talk, I draw on data from in-depth interviews with childless young adults to describe how young people envision “good” parenting and the extent to which these ideals are related to plans for childbearing. Results suggest that young people feel a responsibility to provide emotional support as well as economic support to potential future children. The perceived emotional demands of parenting serve as a motivation to delay parenthood.


About the presenter:

Sarah Hayford is Professor of Sociology and Director of the Institute for Population Research at Ohio State University. She studies childbearing, family formation, and reproductive health, primarily in the United States and sub-Saharan Africa, with a focus on desires and intentions.


video on youtube | presentation


Dynamic Population Estimates for Low- and Middle Income Countries based on Mobile Phone Data

15 May 2024

Roland Hosner
Flowminder Foundation

Abstract:

While mobile phone data constitute a promising new data source for granular population statistics, they remain partial in terms of population coverage, and prone to representation biases which are difficult to measure and correct for in the absence of independent auxiliary data. The use of mobile phone data to estimate changes of sub-regional population counts over time often relies on a series of assumptions (e.g. the assumption that movements observable for mobile phone users are similar to the movements of the general population. Mobile phone users differ from the general population in many (socio-demographic) characteristics. Flowminder has developed and applied a methodology to produce estimates of internal migration and sub-regional population change in Ghana, Haiti and the DRC. These dynamic population estimates can be used for a wide range of use cases, from the health sector, humanitarian work, disaster preparedness to official statistics.


About the presenter:

Roland Hosner is a sociologist, migration researcher and statistician, currently working on the estimation of internal mobility and bias-adjustment of statistics derived from mobile phone data. He is Flowminder’s Senior Statistician and leads all work on survey design and analysis, as well as on data triangulation of mobile phone data, survey and census data, to produce mobility and population estimates for Haiti, the DRC and Ghana.


video on youtube | presentation


Exploring the long-term effects of temperature on population health in Spain using individual mortality data.

11 April 2024

Diego Ramiro-Fariñas
Spanish National Research Council

Abstract:

In this presentation, we delve into a comprehensive analysis of temperature's enduring influence on population health, drawing insights from extensive retrospective analyses of mortality data across different administrative levels in Spain. Firstly, we explore the intricate relationship between temperature and mortality, dissecting cause-specific mortality data to unveil the effects of heat and cold on the residents of Madrid over the past century. By focusing on a single city, we uncover localized trends and patterns that provide valuable insights into the broader dynamics of temperature-related health impacts. Furthermore, our analysis extends beyond typical temperature variations to scrutinize the risks posed by extreme events such as heatwaves and cold snaps. By examining mortality trends during these episodes, we gain a deeper understanding of the added effects of extreme temperatures on population health throughout Spain.


About the presenter:

Dr. Diego Ramiro-Fariñas, Director of the Institute of Economics, Geography and Demography and Full Professor of Demography at the Spanish National Research Council. He is a former president of the Iberian Association of Historical Demography, chaired the Historical Demography Panel at IUSSP, and serves on various editorial boards of prestigious demographic journals.


video on youtube | presentation


Healthy Lifestyles, Body Weight and Fitness: A Theoretical Investigation of Eating Choices and Physical Activity

3 April 2024

Davide Dragone
University of Bologna

Abstract:

We propose a theoretical model examining the relationship between rational eating, physical exercise, and obesity. We show that the variety of different individual lifestyles observed in eating and physical activity can be rational outcomes. Exploring intertemporal patterns of body weight and exercise, we examine the role of individual characteristics, time constraints, and budget limitations, providing insights into the impact of policy interventions targeting eating and exercise choices. We show that opting for a sedentary lifestyle can be a rational decision, a novel finding not present in the rational eating literature. The interaction between physical inactivity, body weight, and fitness condition generates a spectrum of lifestyles over the lifecycle, ranging from monotonic paths to oscillatory behavior, mirroring empirical observations of individual behaviors and physical conditions. We also show the possible existence of multiple equilibria and of multiple indifferent lifestyles. The former refers to the possibility of reaching different states of health and body weight, depending on the individual initial conditions. The latter refers to trajectories of eating and exercising behavior with the same initial and terminal conditions, that yield the same utility flow, and yet correspond to different lifestyles.


About the presenter:

Davide Dragone is Professor of Economics at the Department of Economics of the University of Bologna. He holds a BA in Economics at the Bocconi University, an MA in Economics at Universitat Pompey Fabra, and a PhD in Economics at the University of Bologna. His research activity is focused on intertemporal decision-making applied to Health Economics, Oligopoly Theory and Experimental Economics. He has worked on the economics of obesity, addiction, and sex work. He is Associate Editor of the Journal of Health Economics and Health Economics.


video on youtube | presentation


Using hazard models and dynamic microsimulation to model aggregate trends in period fertility: a consideration of potential and challenges.

2 April 2024

Karel Neels
University of Antwerp, Belgium

Abstract:

The period TFR is the most widely used aggregate indicator of period fertility, feeding directly into commonly used aggregate models of population dynamics. Although a myriad of factors affect the tempo and quantum of fertility, the aggregate nature of the period TFR and the fact that it solely considers age as the relevant time clock make it ill-suited to quantify the impact of various determinants on trends in period fertility, let alone the impact of anticipated changes in such determinants on future trends in period fertility. In contrast, hazard models can link tempo and quantum of various life course transitions to potential determinants at the individual, household and contextual levels, suggesting that individual-based models (IBMs) may be better suited to model aggregate fertility trends. Using population-wide longitudinal microdata for Belgium and a late entry design for the period 2001-2010, a compartmental hazard model of entry into parenthood and parity progression is combined with a dynamic microsimulation model to generate maternity histories for individual women aged 15-50 between 2011-2070. By aggregating simulated maternity histories, IBMs can be used to quantify the impact of anticipated changes in various determinants on aggregate fertility measures such as the period TFR.


About the presenter:

Karel Neels is Full Professor of Social Statistics and Demography at the University of Antwerp (Belgium). His work has considered the effects of education, labour market trajectories, economic cycles and family policies on entry into parenthood and parity progression in both native and migrant populations, with a specific focus on (multivariate) modelling of period fertility trends.


video on youtube | presentation


Demographic Resilience: Building a Platform for Ukraine's Demographic Future during Post-War Reconstruction

29 February 2024

Dmytro Shushpanov
National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine

Abstract:

Ukraine's demographic landscape has undergone significant changes due to the war, which not only led to substantial human casualties but also disrupted the fundamental components of demographic stability, such as birth and death rates, migration, and the overall health of the population. In light of these challenges, building demographic resilience becomes crucial for the country's recovery and its long-term development after the war. This involves creating robust systems and policies that can ensure a stable and healthy population, as well as support economic and social development.

During the presentation, key aspects of demographic resilience will be highlighted; an analysis of population dynamics and demographic processes before the war and changes during 2014-2023, as well as forecasts for the future up to 2050; regional demographic changes; the impact of demographic shifts on the labor market, healthcare system, and social security. A special role is given to strategies for enhancing Ukraine's demographic resilience after the war.


About the presenter:

Professor Dmytro Shushpanov is the head of the Department of Demographic Modeling and Forecasting at the Institute for Demography and Life Quality Problems of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (Kyiv, Ukraine). His research focuses on studying the social determinants of health, morbidity, and mortality of the population, as well as developing effective demographic policy. The collaboration with VID is associated with a research project aimed at addressing challenges and opportunities related to Ukraine's demographic future in the European context, developing a comprehensive program that will promote demographic resilience in Ukraine, drawing on the experience and best practices of Austria.


video on youtube | presentation


A Demographic perspective on forced migration with a special focus on Afghan refugees

28 February 2024

Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi
Academy Fellow, Vienna Institute of Demography

Abstract:

International migration has always been an important issue for research and policy in almost every society and globally. Discussions and studies of migration are focused primarily on voluntary migration, and little attention is given to the reasons, consequences, and potential of forced migration. Yet, forced migration, especially refugees, makes up a significant proportion of international moves, most of it being south-south in nature.  The number of forcibly displaced persons in the world surpassed 108 million by the end of 2022 and there is no evidence that the scale and severity of forced migration are being reduced.  A vast majority (76%) of the displaced population live in low and middle-income countries.  While Syria and Afghanistan have been the top refugee-sending countries for decades, Ukraine and Gaza have also become sources of population displacement. In addition to a large-scale population displacement due to war and conflicts, a significant number of refugees are environmentally driven.  Despite the increasing scale and complexity of population displacement, forced migration is still a neglected and under-researched topic within Demography. This presentation illustrates the current situation of global population displacement by region with an emphasis on population displacement within and from Afghanistan. The need for research and training programs on the demography of forced migration as well as policy implications for the host countries of a sizable number of refugees are discussed.

About the presenter:

Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi is an Academy Fellow at the Vienna Institute of Demography, Professor of Demography, University of Tehran (on leave), Guest Research Scholar at the International Institute of Applied System Analysis (IIASA), and Honorary Professor, School of Demography, the Australian National University. He has conducted research and widely published on Iran’s fertility transition, international and forced migration, Muslim demography, and population policies. His current research focuses on fertility declines and diversity among Muslim populations in Europe.   Abbasi has served as Director of the Iran National Institute of Population Research; President of Asian Population Association, the President of the Population Association of Iran, and is a council member of the IUSSP. He has received several scientific prizes including the 2011 United Nations Population Award.


video on youtube | presentation


Modelling the size and dynamics of Mexican cartels

14 February 2024

Rafael Prieto-Curiel
Complexity Science Hub, Vienna

Abstract:

Latin America is home to only 8% of the world's population, but roughly one in three homicides worldwide occur in the region. Part of the violence suffered is explained by large conflicting cartels fighting to control portions of territory or profitable markets. Despite immense losses in terms of members suffered by cartels over the last decade due to internal conflict against each other as well as incapacitation efforts from the state, Mexican drug cartels manage to compensate for their losses. We show that recruitment largely drives the ability of cartels to recover. Combining recruitment, incarceration, conflict and saturation, we construct a system of coupled differential equations, one for each active cartel. We leverage the increasing number of homicides in Mexico and the incapacitation effect (i.e., imprisonment rates) for the past decade to estimate the size of active cartels. Our results suggest that security policies oriented to arrest criminals will have a negligible effect compared to policies to prevent individuals from being recruited by cartels. Tackling cartel recruitment has a triple effect: first, it lowers the number of cartel members, reducing the violence it can create by having fewer killers. Second, it lowers the number of targets, so fewer people are vulnerable to suffering more violence. And third, it reduces the cartel's capacity for future recruitment.

About the presenter:

Rafael Prieto-Curiel is a Faculty Member at the Complexity Science Hub, working on violence, mobility, migration and urban dynamics. He is working for the OECD and for the World Bank, where he is doing a spatial and demographic analysis of African cities. Rafael Prieto-Curiel is the Scientific Advisor of Aleph. Before he was at the Mathematical Institute of the University of Oxford,  He earned an MSc in Statistics and a PhD in Maths and Security and Crime at University College London UCL.


video on youtube |


Infection Risk at Work, Automatability, and Employment.

17 January 2024

Klaus Prettner
WU (Vienna University of Economics and Business)

Abstract:

We propose a model of production featuring the trade-off between employing workers versus employing robots and analyze the extent to which this trade-off is altered by the emergence of a highly transmissible infectious disease. Since workers are - in contrast to robots - susceptible to pathogens and also spread them at the workplace, the emergence of a new infectious disease should reduce demand for human labor. According to the model, the reduction in labor demand concerns automatable occupations and increases with the viral transmission risk. We test the model's predictions using Austrian employment data over the period 2015-2021, during which the COVID-19 pandemic increased the infection risk at the workplace substantially. We find a negative effect on occupation-level employment emanating from the higher viral transmission risk in the COVID years. As predicted by the model, a reduction in employment is detectable for automatable occupations but not for non-automatable occupations.

About the presenter:

Klaus Prettner is a Professor of Economics (especially Macroeconomics and Digitalization) at the Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU). His research is primarily concerned with the interrelations between economic growth and inequality, the economic consequences of automation, and the impacts of demographic developments on long-run economic outcomes. Klaus Prettner has published in journals such as the Journal of Monetary Economics, The Economic Journal, Journal of Economic Literature, Journal of Economic Growth, Journal of Health Economics, Research Policy, Journal of Urban Economics, Health Affairs, and The BMJ. He obtained his Ph.D. in Economics in 2009 from the University of Vienna.


video on youtube | presentation


2023


The Future and the Potential of Mass Education: What can ‘Thick Description’ tell Us?

24 November 2023

Alaka M. Basu
Department of Sociology, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA

Abstract:

Paul Ehrlich, an author of the 1968 doomsday tract, The Population Bomb, recently acquired new fame for his mellower (compared to his earlier emphasis on population control) recommendation to increase female education to bring down population growth rates in poor countries. This recommendation is not his brainchild; it follows from the near universal empirical demonstration that mass education comes with a host of desirable demographic and socioeconomic outcomes. I subject these universal findings from the positivist methods of social science and demography, to what may be loosely called, after Clifford Geertz, some ‘thick description’. My focus will be on a specific context (mass education in India) and the meaning of education in this context. I look at some ground accounts of different kinds of and levels of education in India and how the meanings attached to these differ across social groups and change over time. I reflect on how these differences and trends might affect the trajectory of educational growth in India, as well as its continuing potential to dictate future demographic and socioeconomic change. Overall, the quantitative findings on this are too robust to be contradicted by such thick description, but some important notes of caution do follow from my focus on India. These notes may or may not apply to other parts of the world, but that is a matter to be resolved by more locally embedded and ‘subjective’ analyses from these other places.

About the presenter:

Alaka Basu is a Social Demographer with publications in the areas of reproductive health, gender, child health, the politics of population policy.  She served on the boards of PAA, IUSSP, The Population Council and The Population Reference Bureau, was the chair of the IUSSP Scientific Committee on Anthropological Demography, a member of the Committees on Reproductive Health and on Population Projections of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences and the Lancet-Guttmacher Commission on Sexual and Reproductive Health and Rights. She is on the Advisory Boards of Population and Development Review, Genealogy, and The Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, and the series editor of the Policy Briefs of the Sociology of Development section of the American Sociological Association.


 


The Effect of Parental Leave Benefit on Fertility and Female Employment

22 November 2023

Jungho Kim
Ajou University

Abstract:

The paper examines the implications of expanding parental leave benefits in South Korea, one of the major policy responses to low fertility rates. The study focuses on female employees who gave birth between 2010 and 2022, registered in the National Employment Insurance database. Preliminary findings suggest that an increase in parental leave benefits has had a favorable impact on women's utilization of leave, their employment status, and fertility decisions. More specifically, when the monthly benefit increases by KRW 100,000 (equivalent to EUR 71), there is a 1.8 percentage point increase in the uptake of leave by mothers, along with an extension of the desired leave duration by 10.0 days. In addition, the percentage of mothers who return to work and subsequently have another child within three years of their birth increases by 0.3 percentage points and 0.4 percentage points, respectively. Furthermore, the study reveals substantial heterogeneous effects across wage groups, firm sizes, and industries, highlighting the need for policy interventions aimed at reducing disparities in effective access to parental leave among different demographic groups.

About the presenter:

Dr. Jungho Kim is a professor in economics at Ajou University in Korea and currently visiting VID. He holds Ph.D. in Economics at Brown University, and his research interests are in the empirical analysis of household behavior and the program evaluation regarding fertility, labor, health and consumption in developing countries. He is currently working on the consequences of the expansion of family policy, COVID-19, and deworming programs in Korea.
 


video on youtube  | presentation


What Level of Migration Is Required to Achieve Zero Population Growth in the Shortest Possible Time? Examples in Asian countries

15 November 2023

Meimanat Hosseini-Chavoshi
University of Melbourne

Abstract:

Stalling fertility at below replacement level is led to population decline. McDonald and Hosseini have shown that this progression is halted most rapidly if the population takes on a quasi-stationary age structure through achieving a constant annual number of births.  The novel approach is to estimate the level of immigration that would be required to maintain a constant annual number of births in the long term. The study suggests that, for all examined countries except Australia, no reasonable level of immigration could produce a quasi-stationary population if fertility remains at the country's 2020 level. The constraining factors are the current population size, fertility level and the extent to which the governments accept permanent immigrants to the country. If fertility were to increase over 15–20 years to 1.7 births and the country was accepting of relatively large numbers of permanent immigrants, the quasi-stable outcome becomes potentially viable for all countries except China.

About the presenter:

Meimanat Hosseini-Chavoshi is a CEPAR Senior Research Fellow at the Demography and Ageing Unit of the School of Population and Global Health, the University of Melbourne. She is currently working on forecasting births exploring the trends and patterns of fertility and the role of migration and education on the future of ageing and fertility in Australia and Iran. Gendered later life disability and health condition and reviewing the methodology and models of population projections are another area of her working research plan.


Implications of India’s Demographic Change on Families

25 October 2023

K S James
Senior Research Fellow, IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Abstract:

Unlike the experience of many other countries, India’s demographic changes is unconventional and has its own specificities. As a result, the implications of demographic transition in India will be different. While the implications in terms of demographic dividend potential is widely discussed, there was limited attention on the family change due to demographic changes. This descriptive paper presents a demographic profiling of family change in India using multiple data sources. Our findings suggest that insignificant but noticeable emerging traits of family change in India. However, given its unconventional path of demographic transition, the changes are weaker relative to what was observed in developed countries.

About the presenter:

K S James is a visiting senior research scholar at IIASA. He was previously, the Director and Senior Professor at the IIPS, Mumbai, India. He holds a postdoctoral training from Harvard University, USA and Ph.D from JNU, New Delhi. He works extensively on demographic changes with focus on population and development in India. He has published widely on demographic transition and demographic dividend in India.


video on youtube  | presentation


Day Care for Ukrainian Refugee Families: Effects on Employment, Well-Being and Integration

4 October 2023

Katharina Spieß
Federal Institute for Population Research (BIB), Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz, IZA Bonn

Abstract:

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has irreversibly changed the lives of Ukrainians, and triggered a major migration flow to other countries, with more than one million refugees arriving in Germany. This refugee population disproportionally includes women and children, making access to day care services a pressing policy priority. The effects of day care services on maternal employment has been a long-standing theme in the literature, which has documented the long-term effects on children’s development and on mothers’ earnings trajectories. However, evidence on refugee populations is scarce, so little is known about the potential of day care in supporting mothers’ employment, integration and well-being in the context of forced migration.
Our analysis is based on a unique panel data set of Ukrainian refugees arriving in Germany following the Russian invasion (IAB-BiB/FReDA-BAMF-SOEP Survey of Ukrainian refugees). Based on this large and representative data, the paper traces the evolution of children’s access day care services and the employment and integration trajectories of their mothers during their first year in Germany. The empirical approach is based on the observation that most refugees moved to relatives and friends in Germany. The geographic dispersion results in substantial regional differences in the availability of early education and care services that vary by the age of children. We exploit the variation across regions and the age of the youngest child within IV strategies to study effects of facilitated access to early education and care services on mothers’ employment, well-being and integration.       
                                                        
Our results show a significant effect of regional day care availability on children’s enrolment in early education and care, and a significant effect on maternal employment and on the participation in language and integration classes of about 7 to 30 ppt. To check whether unobserved regional characteristics might drive the strong link, we use mothers of older children in the same regions as a placebo group which supports a causal interpretation of our main results. The findings have important policy implications, as they suggest that investing in early education and care services effectively promotes the integration of refugee mothers into the labor market and society, ultimately enhancing their well-being.

About the presenter:

Prof. Dr. C. Katharina Spiess is Director of the Federal Institute for Population Research (BiB). She holds the professorship of population economics at Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz.    
C. Katharina Spiess studied economics at the University of Mannheim. In 1996, she earned her doctorate degree at Ruhr University in Bochum. She then worked as project manager at Prognos AG in Basel and Berlin. In 2000, she moved to DIW Berlin, where she worked at the research-based infrastructure unit of the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) until 2012. In 2005, she completed her habilitation (second thesis) at the Technical University of Berlin. From 2006 to 2021, she held a University Professorship for Family and Education Economics at Freie Universität Berlin. She headed the Department of Education and Family at the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) between 2012 and 2021. Her research focuses on population studies, particularly on education and family issues. Her work has been published in well-known field journals, such as the Journal for Population Economics, Journal of Heath Economics, Labour Economics, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, and Economics of Education Review. She is a member of various research networks, expert groups, and commissions, including the Scientific Advisory Board for Family Issues at the Federal Ministry for Family Affairs and one of the Scientific Advisory Boards of the Federal Ministry for Education and Research.


Can family policy influence the transition to parenthood in turbulent times - a post-communist case study

20 September 2023

Zsolt Spéder
Hungarian Demographic Research Institute & Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Pécs

Abstract:

We examine the impact of family policies on becoming a parent in Hungary in 1985–2016. The central question is whether we could expect family policy measures to influence childbearing behaviour at a time, when profound socio-economic changes were working on the one hand and a general a postponement in family formation were taking place on the other hand. Using event-history analysis, we explored how family policy regimes, individual and macro-level factors influenced the birth of the first child. Family policy measures are operationalised as policy periods. Two economic indicators (inflation, employment rates) are selected as measures for societal upheaval. Macro level indicator of postponement is also included. Finally, we addressed that family policy measures may operate differently across social groups. The analysis is based on the data of the Hungarian GGS.Results confirm, that profound family policy changes, the shift from universal to means-testing measures and the abolition of the earnings-related child care allowance do have, although moderate and structured effects during turbulent times. However, macro level conditions (inflation, female employment, postponement) mattered, influenced transition risks significantly.

About the presenter:

Director of the Hungarian Demographic Research Institute during more than two decades; founder and currently head of the Doctoral School of Demography and Sociology, University Pécs; founding member and currently active participant of the Generation and Gender Programme, chair of the GGP’s Council of Partners. Doing research on various aspects of fertility. Several analysis on determinants of fertility intentions and realisation, and on social and cross-national differences in within. Highlighting the specificities of fertility behaviour people with dual status working and studying. Analyses on the construction of fatherhood in current time Longstanding interested in the impact and effectiveness of social policy.


Cancer screening (non-)attendance: Determinants, barriers and motivations

13 September 2023

Anna Altová
Charles University, Prague

Abstract:

Population-based cancer screening has been shown to lower cancer mortality. Therefore, the European Union recommends implementing screening programmes in healthcare systems. The presented study investigates the complexity of cancer screening attendance and non-attendance among Czech and European women using a mixed-methods approach. First, data from EHIS 2019 are used to estimate attendance rates in European countries and investigate educational inequalities in attendance. Second, data from health insurance are used to have a closer look on attendance rates in Czechia. Third, data from representative questionnaire survey serve for finding reasons for non-attendance and whether they differ by socioeconomic and demographic variables. Lastly, semi-structured interviews are used to get an even better understanding of the reasons for non-attendance. Having a better understanding of women who are non-attendees in screening could help the screening attendance and lower the cancer burden.

About the presenter:

Anna Altová is a PhD student in the Department of Demography and Geodemography, Faculty of Science, Charles University. She has a background in demography and social epidemiology and has always been interested in health and prevention. In her PhD project, she focusses on screening attendance, especially among Czech women (breast and cervical screening). She is an EDSD 2019/20 alumna and also one of the organisers of the Young Demographers Conference.


video on youtube  | Presentation


Updating Global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) Population and Human Capital Projections

17 August 2023

Samir KC
IIASA/WIC, Shanghai University

Abstract:

We update the population and human capital components of the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) at the global level, considering the most recent baseline information. While the long-term assumptions based on extensive analysis and expert solicitations remain unchanged, we modify only the trend component. The first set of SSPs was based on demographic data through 2012. The population structures by age, sex, and education of the base year (2010) have since changed for most countries, mainly due to more recent data and reliable information. The mortality situation has improved in many countries affected by HIV/AIDS and among children in countries with higher mortality. The impact of COVID-19 on demographic trends must be addressed. In many countries, fertility rates have fallen faster than expected. International migration has been irregular and volatile as usual. These changes are reflected in the new update, with some improvements in operationalization.

About the presenter:

Samir KC is Leader of the project 'Modelling Human Capital Formation' at the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. KC's master's degree in statistics is from Tribhuvan University, Nepal (1997). Subsequently, he taught university statistics in Kathmandu and worked as a biostatistician at the Nepal Health Research Council. KC received his PhD from the University of Groningen, the Netherlands (2009) and has worked as a Research Scholar at the World Population Program at IIASA since 2005.


video on youtube | Presentation


Exploring the causes of and implications from rapid growth in Australia’s Indigenous population

26 July 2023

Andrew Taylor
Charles Darwin University - Northern Insitute, Australia

Abstract:

The Indigenous population of Australia has grown at a very rapid pace in recent decades, above that which is possible through additions from births alone. The primary cause has been large numbers of people choosing to identify as Indigenous in the Australian Census when previously they did not. There is now a range of data from which we can explain and contextualise this non-demographic growth including examining characteristics like age and socio-economic variables to observe differences between those who consistently identify as Indigenous and those who change their nominated status over time. In this talk I will tease out nuances around this major demographic trend through the lens of a demographer but with socio-cultural transitions in mind. I will also demonstrate future spatial variations in growth through population projections. As Australia goes to a referendum on changing its constitution to provide an Indigenous voice to Parliament, this talk emphasises that identity can be fluid and complex. It also brings into question the way Indigeneity is collected in official Australian datasets like the five-yearly Census.

About the presenter:

Andrew grew up on the lands of the Larrakia people in the Northern Territory of Australia, and still works there today at Charles Darwin University’s Northern Institute. Prior to academia, he worked at the Australian Bureau of Statistics including in the national Indigenous statistics area and on the five-yearly Census. His research focuses on the causes and consequences of demographic changes for sparsely populated parts of Australia and elsewhere, with a focus on the Northern Territory.


video on youtube | Presentation


Cheating Death: Beating the odds to longer survival

28 June 2023

Vanessa di Lego
Vienna Institute of Demography

Abstract:

As people live longer, it becomes a less exceptional achievement to reach very old age. Research on extreme survival has mostly focused on exceptional, record-breaking individuals to investigate the limits of longevity. We instead frame the problem as how many times does somebody need to cheat death in order to reach a specific target age and beat the odds of dying, given the average mortality experience of their cohort. We postulate that the probability to consecutively attain one’s expected age at death converges to e−1, as the number of times one beats the odds of dying increases. We confirm this result for very different mortality schedules, both simulated and historical. Beating the odds of dying in order to reach a target age can be interpreted as the probability of reaching a new life. Consequently, the number of lives needed to reach a target age can be expressed as a simple logarithm transform of the probability to reach this age. By assessing the odds of beating one’s expected age at death, we address longstanding demographic questions in a novel way, for example how many times did Jeanne Calment beat the odds of dying before becoming the oldest person to have ever lived. This approach is connected to Jim Vaupel’s seminal work on resuscitation and second-chance models, as well as his lifelong effort in modelling and understanding extreme longevity.

About the presenter:

I am a formal demographer researching the methodological challenges in accurately estimating health and mortality differentials. I also research the longevity of specific subgroups and selection in mortality studies.  In 2018, I joined the Health and Longevity research group headed by Dr. Marc Luy at the Vienna Institute of Demography as a research scientist. In the framework of the ERC project “Levels and Trends of Health Expectancy: Understanding its Measurement and Estimation Sensitivity’’, I mainly perform sensitivity analysis of healthy life expectancy indicators regarding different measurement and estimation methods  and its implications for healthy ageing. I am also interested in interdisciplinary research and epistemological concerns in the field of population studies, such as limits of our methods and disciplinary boundaries and also improving the outreach of demography among younger scholars.

I hold a bachelor degree in Social Sciences from the Minas Gerais State University in Brazil, and a Master’s and Doctorate degree in Demography from the Centre of Development and Regional Planning (CEDEPLAR-UFMG, Brazil).


video on youtube | Presentation


Who can access medically assisted reproduction and how is legislation related to public opinion in European countries?

21 June 2023

Marie Caroline Compans
University of Vienna

Abstract:

Since the 1980s, European countries have witnessed the rapid development of medically assisted reproduction (MAR). Depending on the regulations in place, assisted reproductive technologies can contribute to the diversification of family forms that deviate from the dominant reproductive norm – i.e., procreation within a different sex (married) couple. We examine the timing and extent of legislative changes in 36 European countries regarding access to MAR for single women and lesbian couples; and the relationship with opinions on assisted reproduction, solo motherhood and same-sex parenthood measured with the European Values Study (2008–10 & 2017–20). While attitudes towards same-sex parents are closely related to legislation, access for single women seems less driven by public opinion towards solo motherhood. Cross-country variations in the acceptance of same-sex parenthood explain regional differences in how laws have shifted towards more permissiveness.  

About the presenter:

Marie-Caroline Compans is a postdoctoral researcher in demography at the University of Vienna. Within the ERC project “BIC.Late”, she is particularly interested in contextual aspects likely to influence trends in late fertility and assisted reproduction. The presented paper is a joint work with Hannah Zagel, Head of the Research Group “Varieties of reproduction regimes” at WZB Berlin.


video on youtube | Presentation


Partners’ relative resources and the transition to second birth in Austria

14 June 2023

Alessandra Trimarchi
Co-Authors: Nadia Steiber, Rudolf Winter-Ebmer, Caroline Berghammer

Abstract:

Fertility research is increasingly focusing on couples, especially on how the combination of partners’ characteristics affect parity progression. Analyses with register data, however, remain scarce and mostly limited to Nordic European countries. In this paper, we use a dataset derived from Austrian social security records and the birth register covering first births in the period 1990-2007, and parity progression in the follow-up. We test whether the observed positive effect of couples’ education is explained by partners’ joint or relative resources. Specifically, we apply cure models to analyse differential effects of partners’ resources on the timing and quantum of second  births. Results show that couples where both partners have a tertiary degree have a higher probability to have the second child relative to other pairings. Instead, differentials in the timing of second births are minor. This finding also holds when controlling for partners’ resources.

About the presenters:

Alessandra Trimarchi is a postdoctoral researcher and a lecturer at the Department of Sociology of the University of Vienna since 2021. Previously, she worked at the French National Institute of Demography (Ined), and at the Catholic University of Leuven (KU Leuven). In 2016, she obtained a PhD in Demography jointly granted by Sapienza University of Rome and KU Leuven. Her research focuses on the association between socioeconomic resources and reproductive behaviour, and its implications for the reproduction of social inequalities in Europe.


Presentation


Cinedemography, population that films and filmed population: gender and racial hierarchies at the contemporary Brazilian film production

06 June 2023

Paula Alves de Almeida, National School of Statistical Sciences – Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Abstract:

Cinema reflects the hierarchies of the society in which it is inserted. There are relations between those who film and those who are filmed: directors (and other key functions) and characters – the population that films and the filmed population. This work draws a panorama of the Brazilian cinematographic production, under the perspectives of gender and color/race. The low representation of women and blacks in the movies reinforces existing gender and ethnic-racial inequalities in society. Cinema has been considered for a long time as an object and also as a research method of study by different fields of knowledge. However, on the possibilities of relation between Cinema and Demography there are very few works. This research also suggests the film analysis as a method of researching themes studied by demography, outlining a reflection on the possibilities of work in the broad and complex relations between Demography and Cinema.

About the presenter:

Paula Alves is Bachelor in Cinema Studies, Master in Population Studies and Social Research and PhD in Population, Territory and Public Statistics. Actually she is a postdoctoral fellow at the Brazilian National School of Statistical Sciences. She is also director, curator and producer of the Femina – International Women´s Film Festival, in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil), which is going to hold its 14th edition in 2023.


video on youtube | Presentation


A microsimulation model for population projections in official statistics

10 May 2023

Pauline Pohl, Philip Slepecki and Martin Spielauer
(Statistics Austria, WIFO)

Abstract:

The cohort-component method is the predominant approach for population projections in official statistics. It is computationally simple, does not require a broad range of input data, and is well-established in the literature. However, it cannot account for complex and dynamic demographic processes, model interactions, or produce detailed results concerning individual-level characteristics. Statistics Austria has implemented a microsimulation model to overcome these limitations. To mitigate the effect of this methodological break on the comparability of projection results over time, we start by replicating the cohort-component method results and introducing new model features stepwise. As a first step, we incorporate a model of international migration, which explicitly accounts for the place of birth grouped into detailed country clusters. In addition, emigration risks are modeled by the duration of residence. The model will be gradually refined and it can be extended with additional modules for education, employment, health and other socioeconomic characteristics.

About the presenters:

Pauline Pohl leads the population projections team at Statistics Austria. She previously worked as an applied econometrician at the Ger-man Economic Institute in Cologne and as a junior researcher at the Economica Institute of Economic Research in Vienna. She holds an MSc in Economics from the University of Vienna.

Philip Slepecki is currently working on the microsimulation model for population projections at Statistics Austria as well as on demographic indicators. He has previously worked in the banking sector in credit risk modelling as well as in data science consulting. He holds a Master's degree in Econometrics from Tilburg University.

Martin Spielauer is a senior economist at WIFO, developing dynamic microsimulation models. In two EU-funded projects, he leads the implementation of the comparative microWELT model for welfare transfers in the context of aging. He is a project partner for the Slovenian pension model and supports the microsimulation implementation of population projections at Statistics Austria. He previously consulted for the World Bank and gained international experience at Statistics Canada and the Max Planck Institute. He holds a Ph.D. from the University of Vienna. He is the organizer of the 9th World Congress of the International Microsimulation Association, see call here: 9th World Congress of the International Microsimulation Association.


video on youtube | Presentation


Population Catastrophe: Explosion, Implosion, and Replacement

05 April 2023

David N. Weil
Brown University and National Bureau of Economic Research

Abstract:

Worries about the size and composition of the population have occupied scholars, governments, and popular discourse for more than a century.  In the early 20th century, concern focused on the low fertility of social classes or ethnic groups viewed as having superior attributes.  After World War II, the dominant fear was catastrophic overpopulation in poor countries.  More recently, sub-replacement fertility and population aging have become salient issues in a large number of countries. These worries arise from a common source: the end of the homeostatic demographic regime of high mortality and high fertility that described human population for most of history.  This lecture tells the story of this demographic transformation, including its economic, social, and cultural dimensions.  It is a sprawling story that encompasses technological change, feminism, eugenics, science fiction, nationalism, the rise of the welfare state, and the private decisions of billions of individuals.

About the presenter:

David N. Weil is the James and Merryl Tisch Professor of Economics at Brown University and a research as-sociate of the National Bureau of Economic Research. Weil has written widely on various aspects of economic growth and his textbook on the topic has been translated into six languages. He has also written on assorted topics in demographic and health economics including the population aging, Social Security, and the gender wage gap. He received his Ph.D. from Harvard University in 1990.


video on youtube | Presentation


Constructing a subnation al database of fertility in low- and middle-income countries to study the impacts of climate change

29 March, 2023

Côme Cheritel
Paris School of Economics

Abstract:

Climate change may directly or indirectly affect reproductive health and fertility. The few existing studies on the impact of climate variability or extreme climatic events on fertility present inconsistent findings with negative climatic conditions leading to an increase in fertility on the one hand, and fertility decline on the other. To date, there are no comprehensive cross-national empirical studies on the impacts of global warming on. To perform such analysis, harmonised data for a large number of countries are required. In particular, data with a temporal and spatial granularity allowing matching of local climatic conditions with the outcome of interest i.e., fertility, are needed. Such data, however, are not yet readily available given a lack of data structure that is suitable (or easily adaptable) to deal with this problem. While the census data can be used to derive fertility statistics, the data are collected over a rather large time interval – often every 10 years – making it impossible to detect the effects of climate change on fertility behavior in a robust manner. Likewise, fertility statistics are mainly available on a national scale, which masks regional heterogeneities that are of relevance to capturing the local climate change impacts. In order to address this issue, we produce a database of age-specific fertility rate at the subnational level on a monthly, quarterly and annual basis. To do so, we use Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) available for ~90 low- and middle-income countries. Since the DHS provide individual records of births, we are able to exploit this information to estimate sub-national level fertility statistics over a long period of time with a high temporal frequency. In addition, the compilation of several DHS surveys for a particular country help reduce uncertainties in the estimation of fertility statistics.

 

About the presenter: Côme Cheritel is a PhD student in Economics at Paris School of Economics under the supervision of Katheline Schubert and Raya Muttarak. He is also a visiting researcher at IIASA in the Migration and Sustainable Development research group of the Population and Just Societies department. With an academic background in engineering, physics and economics, Côme is interested in the links between climate change, population dynamics and the economy. Thus, he studies the links between uncertainty and optimal decarbonisation strategies, the impact of population structure and ageing on future greenhouse gas emissions, and finally the impact of global warming on fertility in developing countries.


 


Environmentally induced migration in the coastal regions of Bangladesh: Existing scenario and post-Covid implications on livelihood and food security

27 February, 2023

Mehdi Azam,
Macquarie Business School

Abstract:

This study analyses various factors that have an impact on environmental and socio-economic changes and thereby people’s displacement and migration. Data from empirical research with local people from 2011 and follow-up focus group discussions and interviews in 2022 were used. The study identifies that shifting traditional land use patterns from rice farming to shrimp cultivation has generated environmental and socioeconomic transformation. A significant decrease in household resilience has shifted vulnerable people away from their regional contexts, ranging from 1 to 28 weeks. The situation has further worsened because of the Covid-19-induced lockdown and restrictions since seasonal migrants had to return home. So far, governance of migration has not been effectively mainstreamed in the current policy regimes, which presents a concern. The study recommends that transformation strategies may help to diversify sources of income and approve the financial situation of many local dwellers.

 

About the presenter:Mehdi’s research focuses on environmental migration, climate change adaptation and governance, land use change, and climate movement strategies in Bangladesh and Australia. He has been involved in several collaborative research projects and is currently part of a collaborative project with the University of Education Freiburg, Germany. He has published research papers as book chapters and referred journals and presented papers at international conferences. Mehdi is currently working at Macquarie University, Australia and is a Stream Member of the Environmental Humanities Research Group


video on youtube  | Presentation


Housing Expenditures and Fertility in the United Kingdom

23 February, 2023

Brian Buh,
Vienna Institute of Demography, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital 

Abstract:

Homemaking is an important precursor to children. However, housing prices in the United Kingdom have skyrocketed, leading to more young families foregoing homeownership and staying in private rent. Expensive housing undercuts the ability to obtain affordable, adequate, and stable housing, needed to have (another) child. On the other hand, homemaking and homeownership is an investment in the future. Couples preparing for children may view their housing needs very differently than those without fertility desires. In this study, I examine the relationship between household-level housing expenditure and the likelihood of first, second, and third birth. I find evidence that families invest in housing to have children. However, this is mitigated by other factors like women’s relationship with the labour market and overcrowding. The association appears to be parity specific, with negative relationship appearing between higher housing expenditure and second and third birth. Families being priced out of the local market, unable to find adequate housing, may delay additional children or ultimately decrease family size.

 

About the presenter:

Brian Buh is a research assistant on the BIRTHLIFE project at the Vienna Institute of Demography. He is a doctoral student in demography at the University of Vienna. He is interested in the competing and complementary life course, specifically around issues of family formation, employment, housing, income, and meso-level factors.


video on youtube  


Temperature and Seasonality Related Infectious Disease Mortality Among Infants. A Retrospective Time-Series Study of Sweden, 1868-1892

14 February, 2023

Johan Junkka and Maria Hiltunen, Centre for Demographic and Ageing Research, Umeå University 

Abstract:

Climate conditions, such as ambient temperature, are crucial to infants’ vulnerability to infectious diseases. However, little is known about how climate conditions affect infectious disease

mortality among infants in high mortality settings. The aim was to investigate the association between ambient temperature, seasonality and cause-specific infant mortality. We applied a retrospective study design using parish register data from Sweden covering the period 1868-1892 in combination with daily temperature data. Mortality due to water- and foodborne diseases, airborne infectious diseases, and other causes were modelled as a function of temperature exposure in the previous 14 days using distributed lagged non-linear models. We found that airborne infectious disease mortality was not related to cold temperatures while water- and foodborne infections were associated with high temperatures. The increased vulnerability to infectious diseases of infants at high temperatures is a significant future risk, given the expected global warming in the coming decades.

 

About the presenter:

Johan Junkka is an assistant professor in historical demography at the Centre for Demographic and Ageing Research, Umeå university, Sweden. Junkka’s research covers a wide range of demographic issues regarding fertility, social networks, mortality, disability and climate conditions. He uses a combination of longitudinal historical population records and modern register data to study the impact of disability on different aspects of life-course, or how climate conditions such as temperature affects health inequalities over the past centuries.


video on youtube   |  poster


Intersecting Inequities in Energy Consumption, Decent Living Standards, and Risk of Climate Change Exposure in Ghana, India, and Brazil

7 February, 2023

Setu Pelz, Shonali Pachauri & Caroline Zimm: Intersecting Inequities in Energy Consumption, Decent Living Standards, and Risk of Climate Change Exposure in Ghana, India, and Brazil

Abstract:

Literature linking residential energy consumption, human development and climate change risk is growing but is largely concentrated at the aggregate level. We combine consumer expenditure microdata for two time periods from Brazil (2002/2017), Ghana (2005/2017) and India (2004/2011) with a spatial climate exposure

dataset (SSP2, 1.5dC, 2030) to identify intersecting inequities across the income distribution and across space. We first describe the dual challenge of energy access and affordability among poorer households and extend this analysis to include private mobility, identifying dramatic and consistent shifts towards private mobility fossil fuel consumption among the upper deciles. Second, we operationalize the decent living standards, a multi-dimensional measure of human wellbeing, across the income deciles. This highlights the strength of this framework in identifying deprivations among poorer households using standard publicly available microdata. Thirdly, we link achievement of decent living standards with climate risk, identifying both spatially and by income level an acutely vulnerable population requiring climate adaptation policy support.

About the presenter:

Setu Pelz joined IIASA in 2022 as a research scholar in the Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) Program. He works on the analysis and modeling of energy poverty, access, demand, and transitions, with a particular focus on regions of the Global South and vulnerable communities globally. Prior to joining IIASA, Pelz pursued his PhD with the

Department of Energy and Environmental Management at Europa Universitat Flensburg, Germany. His research interests include energy access, just transitions, and sustainable development.


video on youtube   |  poster


2022


The Place of Demography in Global Development Discourse in the 21st Century

21 November, 2022

Alex Ezeh: The Place of Demography in Global Development Discourse in the 21st Century

Abstract:

Throughout much of the 2nd half of the 20th Century, demographic concerns were at the core of most discourses on global development. It formed a critical component of the priorities of multilateral and bilateral agencies as well as private foundations. The focus was centered around rapid population growth in poorer countries and support for family planning programs accounted for at least three-quarters of the total support for population-related  activities. Demographic tools and methods were applied to understand the complex relationships between population change and development outcomes. By the end of the 20th Century, however, the relevance of demography to global development had virtually disappeared. Yet, today, population change ranks alongside climate crisis and growing inequality as existential threats to our current civilization. In this lecture, I offer some thoughts on what happened to demography and why it remains key to improvements in human wellbeing in both rich and poor countries.

About the presenter:

Dr. Ezeh is Dornsife Professor of Global Health at the Dornsife School of Public Health, Drexel University. His work focuses on urban health, population change, and models to strengthen knowledge-based institutions. Previously, he served as the founding Executive Director of the African Population and Health Research Center and he initiated and directed the Consortium for Advanced Research Training in Africa. He serves on numerous international and non-profit boards, including the UN High-Level Advisory Board for Economic and Social Affairs, and currently co-chairs a new Lancet Commission on Adolescent Health and Wellbeing.


video on youtube   Presentation  


Future Directions for (Cross-disciplinary)Collaborations in Demography

18 Oktober, 2022

Annette Baudisch: Future Directions for (Cross-disciplinary) Collaborations in Demography

Abstract:

The purpose of this colloquium is twofold. First, to communicate new directions of research at the Danish Center for Population Research in Odense to explore potential areas of common interest with researchers at WIC. These include, among others, research on fertility, regional demography, and the interplay between demography and climate change. And second, to present recent results on mortality patterns and the rate of aging in humans, primates, and other species to discuss if and how existing theories and modeling within evolutionary demography, optimization approaches across disciplines and other approaches may help explain emerging regularities and apparent constraints on the rate of aging.

About the presenter:

Professor Annette Baudisch is Director of Research at the Danish Centre for Demographic Research within the Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics | CPop at
the University of Southern Denmark, Odense. Her research advances concepts, theories and methods to study age-patterns of mortality and fertility. Changing the question of “why we age” to “why we age, but some species do not”, and framing the pace-shape concepts of aging are her award-winning contributions to science. She recently acquired an ERC consolidator grant based on her recently developed Born once – Die once approach.


Covid-19, the Russo-Ukrainian War, the Global Sustainable Development Project, and Post-Twin Crises Demography

27 September, 2022

Landis MacKellar: Covid-19, the Russo-Ukrainian War, the Global Sustainable Development Project, and Post-Twin Crises Demography

Abstract:

In this essay, the author submits that the global sustainable development project as currently conceived is foundering and that the twin crises of Covid-19 and the Russo-Ukrainian War have driven a stake through its heart. The old battle yells of equality, equity, and No One Left Behind will be insucient to revive it. Yet, another global sustainable development project must emerge. What can we learn from the currently failing one? What lessons are we learning, and how can these inform post-2030 sustainable development?

About the presenter:

Landis MacKellar is an economist and lawyer whose research and writing have spanned demography, the economics of the social sector, and natural resource and environmental economics including climate change. From 2013–2021, he was editor of Population and Development Review. Mr. MacKellar has long been associated, formally or informally, with the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA, www.iiasa.ac.at) in Vienna.


Ukrainian Refugees in Vienna: Socio-Demographic Characteristics and Return Intentions

21 September, 2022

Judith Kohlenberger, Isabella Buber-Ennser, and Olena Tarasiuk: Ukrainian Refugees in Vienna: Socio-Demographic Characteristics and Return Intentions

Abstract:

As of July 2022, almost six million Ukrainians have ed the ongoing war to European host countries. Neighbouring countries like Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary, but also Western European countries, most notably Germany and Austria, have accepted thousands of refugees and are providing shelter. Two large surveys were conducted simultaneously between April and June in Vienna and Kraków to nd out about sociodemographic characteristics, return intentions, attitudes and values. In the presentation we focus in Ukrainians in Vienna and discuss dierences and similarities with Ukrainians surveyed in Kraków. Results suggest a highly selective, (upper) urban Ukrainian middle-class in Austria and, to a lesser degree, in Poland, who had resources to travel, work, and study abroad before the war. The farther Ukrainian refugees moved from their home country, the higher their educational attainment, which correlates with their socio-economic background and impacts return intentions.

About the presenter:

Judith Kohlenberger is a postdoctoral researcher at the Institute for Social Policy, Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU). Isabella Buber-Ennser is leader of the research group "Demography of Austria (DoA)" at the Vienna Institute of Demography (VID). Olena Tarasiuk is a research scholar at IIASA in the Population and Just Societies Program.


Video on youtube


Parental Leave and Day-care Policy, Take-up Consequences and Changing Normative Beliefs: Evidence from Two Survey Experiments

6 September, 2022

Marie-Fleur Philipp: Parental Leave and Day-care Policy, Take-up Consequences and Changing Normative Beliefs: Evidence from Two Survey Experiments

Abstract

Family policies convey normative assumptions about what is considered desirable in paid work and family care. This study conceptualises and investigates how priming with brief media report-like information on existing parental leave and day care policy entitlements and the economic consequences of their uptake may change personal normative beliefs about parental work-care arrangements. The data stem from two survey experiments implemented in the German GESIS Panel and the German Family Panel (pairfam). Priming respondents with information on parental leave and day-care policies as well as the consequences of take-up changes normative beliefs towards stronger egalitarianism regarding couples’ division of labour. However, the priming effects are strongly dependent on relative earnings constellations in the case of the division of parental leave. Further, effects vary by respondents’ gen-der and parenthood status.

About the presenter:

Marie-Fleur Philipp is a doctoral student in sociology at the University of Tübingen. She is interested in gender relations and inequalities within the family, and in the interplay between work-family policies and social norms. She also works on the

role of family structure in gender socialization and the development of gender ideologies.
 


Projections of Skills-Adjusted Human Capital and the Effect of COVID-19 on Adult Skills

22 June, 2022

Caner Özdemir, Zonguldak Bülent Ecevit University, Turkey

Abstract:

Together with colleagues at the Human Capital Data Lab, we extend Skills-in-Literacy Adjusted Mean Years of Schooling (SLAMYS), a recently released human capital indicator. Estimates of SLAMYS between 1970 and 2015 have shown that being in school does not necessarily mean learning. Moreover, the gap between years of schooling and SLAMYS varies considerably between countries. Using both international student assessment data and international adult skills data, we extend SLAMYS until 2050 for 45 countries, applying projections for the working-age population in 5-year-time-periods from 2015 to 2050. Our projections indicate a further widening global gap in learning and in adult skills. We also incorporate the learning loss during the school closures due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Projections indicate that COVID-related skill loss may eliminate progress gained in the last 20-30 years. Our projections call for urgent action to mitigate learning losses due to school closures during the pandemic.

About the presenter:

Caner Özdemir is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Labor Economics and Industrial Relations at Zonguldak Bülent Ecevit University, Turkey. He had his BSc in Statistics and MSc in Social Policy from Middle East Technical University, Turkey where he also got his PhD in Sociology. He teaches and publishes on topics including sociology of education, social inequalities, and social mobility. He is a participating member of ISA Research Committee on Social Stratification and ESA Research Network on Sociology of Education.


Video on Youtube


Macroeconomic Consequences of the Substituability between Natives and Immigrants in the Labor Market

1 June 2022

Hippolyte d'Albis, Paris School of Economics

Abstract:

Previous empirical studies have concluded that natives are not infinitely substitutable to immigrants in the labor market. In this article, we first explore the macroeconomic consequences of this fact with a neoclassical growth model. We show that the employment rate increases with the immigration rate if and only if the share of immigrants in the population is below a threshold. This condition is shown to be key for the dynamic analysis of both capital and income per capita. Most notably, steady-state income per capita increases with the immigration rate if and only if the share of immigrants is below the aforementioned threshold. Using a panel of OECD countries for 1985-2018, we then provide an empirical assessment of the impact of migration on employment rate, which suggests that the share of immigrants in the population is actually below the theoretical theshold

About the presenter:

Hippolyte d’Albis is a senior researcher at CNRS, specialized in economic demography. He is also professor at the Paris School of Economics, director of the École HED –a graduate school of demography–, president of the Cercle des économistes, director of the French team of the National Transfer Accounts network, co-director of the French Regional Database, associate editor of the Journal of Demographic Economics and the Journal of the Economics of Ageing and member of the editorial advisory board of the Public Finance Review.


An Epidemic of Uncertainty

31 May 2022

Jenny Trinitapoli, University of Chicago

Abstract:

After a four-decades-long battle against HIV, the standard global-health metrics have started to point to good news: new infections are down, prevalence has stabilized, life-saving antiretroviral drugs are widely available, mother-to-child transmission is lower than ever, and AIDS-related mortality has declined. But in the wake of pandemic AIDS, an epidemic of uncertainty persists. In Malawi, adult prevalence of HIV has been steady at roughly 14% since 2000; yet at any given point in time, half the young-adult population doesn’t know their HIV status. I argue that AIDS-related uncertainty is measurable, pervasive, and impervious to biomedical solutions. The consequences of uncertainty are pertinent to multiple domains of life including relationship stability, fertility, health, and well-being. Even as HIV is transformed from a progressive, fatal infection to a chronic and manageable condition, the accompanying epidemic of uncertainty remains central to understanding social life in this part of the world.

About the presenter:

Jenny Trinitapoli is an Associate Professor in the Department of Sociology at the University of Chicago, where she also directs the Center for International Social Science Research. Her training is in two areas: social demography & the sociology of religion. Bridging these two fields, her work features the demographer’s characteristic concern with data quality and denominators and an insistence on connecting demographic processes to questions of meaning.


Family Goals and Behavior in an International Comparative Analysis

16 May 2022

Alicia Adsera, Princeton University

Abstract:

We aim to understand how family goals/values impact family behavior (especially union formation and fertility). We designed a survey to collect information on family goals that includes novel vignettes of family profiles that individuals are asked to evaluate in terms of their "success" and desirability. Family profiles vary by marital status, children, family investments and interactions, educational aspirations and intra-household specialization. We use online panels in Italy, Korea, Norway, Singapore, Spain, Japan, China and the US. Many of these countries have some of the lowest fertility rates in the world, but very different institutional settings, and family formation processes (including nonmarital unions and childbearing). A better understanding of family goals should allow us to theoretically integrate the ways in which mechanisms governing micro-level intimate family contexts scale up to (partially) explain macro-level trends in family patterns.

 

About the presenter:

Alicia Adserà is a Senior Research Scholar and Lecturer in Economics at the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs and director of graduate studies at the Office of Population Research  (Princeton University). Her research interests are economic demography, development and political economy. She works on the interplay between economics and fertility as well as on migration. She holds a PhD in Economics from Boston University. Previously, she was a tenured Associate Professor (University of Illinois at Chicago) and Research Affiliate at the Population Research Center (University of Chicago).


Video on Youtube


The Mechanism Between Mortality, Population Growth and Ageing of the Population in the European Lower and Upper Middle Income Countries

11 May 2022

Goran Miladinov

Abstract:

This paper analyses the effect of mortality rates under-five and adult mortality) and population growth on the population ageing in a pooled sample of nine LUMIs European countries. The analysis is implemented in terms of Pooled least squares with cross-section fixed effects methodology.  The novelty used within this research is White two-way cluster standard errors & covariance. This study is based on a database from the World Bank and UN covering the period 1995–2019. Results are consistent with the notion that the increasing ageing process within these countries may be a consequence of the negative impact of population growth and from the influence of adult mortality. The research results are making available quantitative analysis and indights and therefore confirm the presence of solid ties of the mechanism between mortality, population growth and population ageing across these European LUMIs. There was a clear point that mortality acceleration will depend primarily on the level of population growth.

 

About the presenter:

Goran Miladinov has Ph.D. in demography from Faculty of Economics at “Ss. Cyril and Methodius” University in Skopje, Macedonia. Currently, he is working independently as a researcher-demographer. His main research interests include demography, population economics, applied econometrics and statistics for business and economics, and development economics. He also has previous teaching experience in statistics, econometrics and some other management courses as well as job experience in R&D statistics at the State Statistics Offi ce in Skopje. Besides, Goran Miladinov has many other research contributions.


On the Momentum of Pseudo-Stable Populations

09 May 2022

Roland Rau, Max-Planck-Institute for Demographic Research

Abstract:

Stable population theory remains the standard model for the analytical study of population dynamics. It assumes a closed female population with time-invariant but age-specific fertility and mortality. We begin with a quick refresher about the transient and long-term effects of these assumptions (e.g., the intrinsic rate of growth and the age structure) as well as the classic case of population momentum. Pseudo-stable populations relax the strict fertility assumption: It allows fertility to decline at a constant rate. We show analytically and via simulations how births, population size, population momentum and other characteristics develop in this scenario with varying fertility transition speeds.

 

About the presenter:

Roland Rau is Professor of Demography at the University of Rostock and Senior Research Scientist at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. His main research interests are at the intersection of demography, epidemiology and statistics. He fell in love with demography about 25 years ago when he attended his first demography course which focused on population dynamics and stable population theory. The love for mathematical demography is still there but Roland devotes too little time on it. Roland hopes that his current collaboration with Gustav Feichtinger will change this for the better.


Video on Youtube


Russian Demographic Datasheet 2022: Regional Diversity Today and in the Future

09 February 2022

Sergei Scherbov, IIASA
Sergey Shulgin, RANEPA

Abstract:

The work is performed in a framework of IIASA-RANEPA project: “Short and long term consequences of COVID-19 on population dynamics in Russia and its regions” funded by IIASA and the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR). Conventional and probabilistic projections for Russia and it regions constitute the main results of the project. Russian Demographic datasheet 2022 is being developed based on those projections. We are developing probabilistic projections for 85 administrative regions of Russia considering urban and rural populations. Projections are based on long-term scenarios for fertility, mortality, and migration until 2050 developed by participants of the project. Regional demographic diversity in Russia is very high and especially in longevity. Those differences have a strong effect on population distribution by age and sex. The datasheet will also include regional estimates of excess mortality in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic where a high level of diversity is also observed.

About the presenter:

Sergei Scherbov is Principal Research Scholar and Project Leader at IIASA’s Population and Just Societies Program.
Sergey Shulgin is vice-director at International Research Laboratory for Demography and Human Capital at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) at Moscow (Russia).


Assessing Population Health: A Closer Look at the Healthy Life Years indicator

19 January 2022

Markus Sauerberg
Federal Institute for Population Research, Wiesbaden, Germany

Abstract:

During my time at the VID, I explored the measurement of population health from a methodological point of viewwith a particular focus on the Healthy Life Years (HLY) indicator. HLY extends classic period life expectancy (LE) by taking into account the health dimension in survivorship. However, HLY is less reliable as compared to LE. For instance, HLY values are showing more uctuations over time
and countries with high LE levels do not necessarily rank also high in terms of HLY. Accordingly, it is worthwhile to take a closer look at the HLY indicator. I examined HLY with respect to its underlying
health and mortality components. Additionally, I tested the impact of population’s educational composition on HLY. While all factors can play a role in specic situations, the health information appears as being the most important driver for the observed HLY estimates.

About the presenter:

Markus studied social sciences and demography at the University of Rostock. After participating in the European Doctoral School of Demography in Rome, he moved to Vienna and joinedMarc Luy’s research group "Health & Longevity" at the VID. Within his ERC project on the estimation sensitivity of the HLY indicator, he wrote his PhD thesis and successfully nished it in the beginning
of 2021. Since January 2022, he is living in Wiesbaden to work on Pavel Grigoriev’s ERC project on regional disparities in cause-specic mortality in Europe hosted at the Federal Institute for Population Research in Germany.


Presentation

Video on Youtube

 


2021


Gendered Experiences of Widowhood and Depression Across Europe: The Role of Loneliness and Financial Resources from a Longitudinal Perspective

23 November 2021

Alina Schmitz
TU Dortmund

Abstract:

Numerous studies document the detrimental consequences of widowhood on mental health. Yet widowhood is – especially for women – a central experience of ageing so that it has been questioned whether women adapt to widowhood more easily. Previous research has provided mixed answers, reecting both methodological and substantive issues, such as differences in statistical modeling and study samples. Furthermore, prior research largely ignores the societal context, although the social consequences of widowhood may vary according to macrosocial conditions. Thus, the mental health consequences of widowhood may both be gendered and context-specic. Based on longitudinal data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), this study analyses the  gendered experiences of widowhood and depressive symptoms in four European regions. A special focus lies on the contribution of loneliness and reduced nancial resources to the detrimental effect of widowhood on mental health.

About the presenter:

Alina Schmitz is a post doctoral researcher working at Technische Universität Dortmund, Chair for Social Structure and Sociology of Ageing Societies. Her research focuses on social inequalities in (mental) health and wellbeing within a cross-country comparative perspective. She is interested in the mechanisms through which gender and socioeconomic status affect health and wellbeing across the life course, as well as in the role of contextual factors for healthy ageing. The presented work is part of her dissertation on gender inequalities in old age depression.

presentation


From the Stork to Fertility Apps

19 July 2021

Ross Barker
Austrian Academy of Sciences

Abstract:

The market for smartphone apps tracking fertility has grown in recent years. These apps brand themselves as empowering their users to reach their reproductive goals, claiming to help achieve a pregnancy more easily than through conventional medical channels. This paper offers the first comprehensive quantification of fertility tracking app users. Using data collected from Google Play Store and Apple App Store, we calculate the most downloaded apps, and the global distribution of use. We use a log-log model fitted on the Google Play Store data to predict the Apple App Store number of installations. Our findings show that 74% of downloads are for just three of 28 apps. The majority of the reviews are left by users in North America, Northern Europe, and Australia; but it is noteworthy that downloads are also widespread in the Global South. Ongoing work aims to investigate the most discussed topics in the reviews.

About the presenter:

Ross Barker is a pre-doctoral research assistant in the Vienna Institute of Demography, jointly part of the Demography of Austria research group and the Family and Fertility research group, joining the BIRTH-LIFE project in September 2020. His work focuses on the intention to have a child, using survey data and web-based data. He intends him-self to find new sources of data to explore how the digital revolution is affecting the intention to have a child, and how increased use of mobile phone apps affects the ability to realise those intentions.


Video on Youtube

 


Covid-19, Social-Distancing and Lock-Downs in a simple Ramsey Economy: The role of networks

15 July 2021

Torben Klarl
University of Bremen

Abstract:

We develop a microfounded network-based SIS model where network connections vary between members. This model is embedded into a standard Ramsey Economy. We study the optimal lockdown policy for a planner who wants to control fatalities of the Covid-19 epidemic while minimizing consumption costs of the lock-down. We show that the optimal lock-down policy depends not only on the fraction of susceptible and infected persons but, importantly, on the average degree node of the network, which is a measure of social distancing. Not accounting for this would lead to biased policy recommendations and to welfare losses. In an extension, we expand our a setting where the agents do not fully take into account the effects of social distancing due to rational inattention motives.


About the presenter:

Torben Klarl currently works at the Department of Business and Eco-nomics at the University of Bre-men. He is also affliated with the BIGSSS (University of Bremen) and O’Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs, Indiana University, Bloomington. Torben’s research focus is on various topics in applied macroeconomics such as sustainability, health, and innovation. More information can be found here.


Video on Youtube

 


MicroWELT – Microsimulation of Disaggregated National Transfer Accounts for the Comparative Study of Welfare State Regimes

18 May 2021

Martin Spielauer
Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO)

Abstract:

This colloquium introduces MicroWELT, a microsimulation platform developed alongside the Horizon 2020 WELTRANSIM (Welfare Transfer Simulation) project. MicroWELT projects the interactions between welfare state regimes, welfare transfers and population ageing, accounting for educational change, life expectancy differentials and changing family patterns. Beyond the WELTRASNIM project, microWELT provides a versatile platform already used in various projects related to health, employment and care. MicroWELT integrates detailed socio-demographic projections with disaggregated National Transfer Accounts (NTAs). We study how disaggregating NTAs by family type and education affects NTA indicators and generational accounts. Our results show that indicators based on disaggregated data can give a very distinct picture of the economic effects of population ageing.


About the presenter:

Martin Spielauer is Senior Economist at the Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO). He has 20 years of experience developing dynamic microsimulation models for the study of socio-demographic change, employment, health, social insurance, pensions and care in various countries. He is the lead developer of the microWELT model presented in this colloquium. As consultant of The World Bank, he leads the development of Dynamis-Pop, a portable model for population, education and health applications in developing countries.


Video on Youtube

 


Baby bust in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic? First results from the new STFF data series

21 April 2021

Tomáš Sobotka & Kryštof Zeman
Wittgenstein Centre (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna)

Abstract:

Past evidence on fertility responses to external shocks, including economic recessions and the out-breaks of infectious diseases, show that people of-ten put their childbearing plans on hold in uncertaintimes. We study the most recent data on monthly birth trends to analyse the initial fertility responses to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Ourresearch, based on new Short-Term Fertility Fluctu-ations (STFF) data series, embedded in the HumanFertility Database, shows the initial signs of the ex-pected “birth recession”. Monthly number of births in many countries have fallen sharply since October2020, often bringing about a clear reversal of theprevious trend. Across 17 countries with lower uc-tuations in births, births fell on average by 5.1% in November 2020, 6.5% in December 2020 and 8.9% in January 2021, compared with the same monthof the previous year. Spain sustained the sharpest drop in the number of births among the analysed countries, with the number of births plummeting by 20% in December 2020 and January 2021. Thecombined effect of rising mortality and falling birthrates is disrupting the balance of births and deaths in many countries, pushing natural population in-crease to record low levels.


About the presenters:

Tomáš Sobotkaleads the researchgroup Fertility and Family at theVienna Institute of Demography (OeAW). He also serves as an external lecturer at the Charles University in Prague and since 2021 as Editor of the Vienna Yearbook of Population Research. Kryštof Zeman is a research scientist with main focus on the Human Fertility Database project at the Department of Demography (Universityof Vienna). The presented work was created incollaboration with Aiva Jasilioniene, Ainhoa Alustiza Galarza, DmitriJdanov and László Németh from the Max Planck Institute for Demo-graphic Research (MPIDR).


Presentation Part I (Zeman)

Presentation Part II (Sobotka)


Born Once, Die Once: Lifetable Relationships for Fertility

9 March 2021

Annette Baudisch & Jesús-Adrián Alvarez
Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics

Abstract:

Everyone dies, once. This basic truth empowers formal mortality research. Similarly, everyone is born, once. This truth has not been fully exploited to benefit formal fertility research. Baudisch and Stott (2019) recently advanced the idea of an offspring population - yet unborn - awaiting the event of birth, introducing a novel survivorship concept for birth.
Formalizing the idea of ’birth survival’, here we define the underlying random variable and derive the central ’triplet’ of survival analysis functions - the hazard, density, and survival. We derive a straightforward framework to capture age-specific patterns of birth, analogous to classical life table functions. Based on age-specific birth counts, we construct a ’birth table’ and meaningful summary measures such as ’birth expectancy’ and associated measures of spread.
We advance a new framework to compare birth schedules across populations and to reveal macrolevel patterns and constraints. Our approach enables method transfer from mortality to fertility research, which can create an integrated framework to study birth and death for the same focal individual. Thereby, insights into the intertwined relationships between birth and death become possible. This, we envision, will open an entirely unexplored line of research.


About the presenter:

Professor Annette Baudisch is Vice Director at the Danish Centre for Demo-graphic Research | CDem within the Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics | CPop. As mathematician and demographer by training, her research advances concepts, theories and methods to study age-patterns of mortality and fertility. Changing the question of “why we age” to “why we age, but other species do not”, and creating the pace-shape framework of aging are her award-winning contributions to science.