Empirical insights into computer modelling and simulations in various policy areas

Computer models increasingly provide knowledge for decisions in politics and society. The project, funded by the Innovation Fund of the Austrian Academy of Sciences, reflected the role of computer-based modeling and simulation in policy advice.

Computational modelling has gained increasing relevance for supporting political and societal decision-making on a range of complex and controversial questions. However, the proliferation of computational modelling in policy advice is hardly acknowledged and reflected upon in public and scholarly debates on scientific policy advice. The project contributed to opening the ‘black box’ of modelling in policy advice and provided empirical insights into computer modelling and simulations as epistemic and political instruments and practices.

The project provided a systematic overview of the epistemic characteristics of computational modelling and simulations in different policy areas. The main modelling approaches were identified and classified along their methodological approach, scale, scope, disciplinary and institutional configurations as well as their linking to specific policy issues.

Beyond the systematic overview, the project strived for a profound understanding of how computational models and simulations are used in advisory contexts in different policy areas. Against the background of recent assaults on the authority of science, the project particularly asked how credibility and legitimacy claims are ensured in the interaction and communication between scientists, political, and societal stakeholders.

The project "CoMoPa" provided empirical insights into the inner world of modelling and simulation; it revealed how scientific evidence is produced and legitimacy maintained and how the exceptional position of scientific knowledge can be justified in the digital age.

"All Watched Over by Machines of Loving Grace: Computational Modelling in Policy Advice" (by Richard Brautigan)

Publications

  • Diversification, integration, and opening: developments in modelling for policy. / Bauer, Anja; Capari, Leo; Fuchs, Daniela et al.
    In: Science and Public Policy, Vol. 50, No. 6, 24.07.2023, p. 977-987.

    Closely-associated with calls for evidence-based policy-making, computer models are increasingly used to support public policies on a wide range of complex and controversial issues, ranging from energy and trade policies to regulating chemicals. In this article, we discuss three trends in modelling for policy and their implications for the authority of models in policy-making. First, we observe the proliferation of models and the differentiation of respective modelling landscapes and communities, resulting in intensified competition for political authority and early path dependencies in their political use. Second, different models are increasingly coupled or integrated into complex model frameworks, raising questions of comprehensibility and accountability. Third, modelling for policy experiences calls for transparency and opening that should serve scientific demands of replicability and verifications as well as political demands of legitimacy. In conclusion, we emphasise the continuous relevance of social scientific analyses of modelling for policy.

  • The politics of models: Socio-political discourses in modeling of energy transition and transnational trade policies. / Udrea, Titus; Capari, Leo; Bauer, Anja.
    In: Science and Public Policy, Vol. 32, No. 1, 23.03.2023, p. 49-55.

    In this article, we discuss the (re)production of socio-political discourses in two modeling communities, energy transition and transnational trade. Methodologically, we build on bibliometric and qualitative analyses of academic articles. Our analyses show how models structure epistemic communities and are closely linked to specific discourses. The modeling of the energy transition is driven by and contributes to discourses on mitigating climate change and access to energy. Different trade models address either multilateral or regional trade, yet in each case favoring international trade. Overall, we illustrate how the ‘politics of models’ does not only concern their use at the science-policy interface, but is already inscribed in their development, application, and scientific exploitation. These analyses may help experts, policy makers, and the public to better assess the knowledge claims and evidence politics of computer modeling.

  • Modeling for nano risk assessment and management: The development of integrated governance tools and the potential role of technology assessment. / Bauer, Anja; Fuchs, Daniela.
    In: TATuP - Technikfolgenabschätzung Theorie und Praxis, No. 32(1), 23.03.2023, p. 18-23.

    In nano risk governance, we observe a trend toward coupling and integrating a variety of computational models into integrated risk governance tools. This article discusses the development and design of such integrated tools as ‘nano risk governance imaginaries in the making.’ Using an illustrative example, the SUNDS tool, we show how the tool manifests conceptual shifts from risk to innovation governance, a technocratic evidence culture based on the quantification of risks, and an envisioned application in industrial innovation management. This conceptualization runs the risk of narrowing the view of nano risks and cementing the widely lamented democratic deficit in risk governance. We therefore conclude that the development and application of integrated governance tools are highly relevant for technology assessment (TA) and TA should actively engage in their development processes.

  • Between control and independence: computational modelling within EC's trade sustainability impact assessments. / Udrea, Titus; Bauer, Anja.
    In: Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal, Vol. 40, No. 6, 23.08.2022, p. 10.
  • Jenseits von Wahrheitsmaschinen. / Riedlinger, Denise.
    In: ITA-NewsFeed, No. www.oeaw.ac.at/ita/news, 08.03.2021.
  • Die Politik im Datendschungel. / Riedlinger, Denise.
    In: ITA-NewsFeed, No. www.oeaw.ac.at/ita/news, 12.01.2021.
  • Modelling which future? ITA-Dossier no. 51 (January 2021; Authors: Daniela Fuchs, Anja Bauer, Leo Capari, Tituts Udrea). / Capari, Leo; Bauer, Anja; Fuchs, Daniela et al.
    2 p. Wien. 2021. (ITA-Dossiers).

    -> Computer models support policy with important orientational knowledge in various areas. -> Computer models do not only create knowledge, but also (re-)produce social values and world views. They should therefore be widely discussed in science, policy, and by the public. > Key challenges for computational modelling in policy advice are its increasing complexity, a lack of transparency, and ensuring the credibility and communication of models and their significance

  • Welche Zukunft modellieren? ITA-Dossier Nr. 51 (Dezember 2020; AutorInnen: Anja Bauer, Daniela Fuchs, Leo Capari, Tituts Udrea). / Capari, Leo; Bauer, Anja; Fuchs, Daniela et al.
    2 p. Wien. 2020. (ITA-Dossiers).

    -> Computermodelle unterstützen die Politik mit wichtigem Orientierungswissen in unterschiedlichsten Bereichen. -> Computermodelle schaffen nicht nur Wissen, sondern (re-)produzieren auch gesellschaftliche Werte und Weltbilder. Sie sollten daher breit in Wissenschaft, Politik und Öffentlichkeit diskutiert werden. -> Zentrale Herausforderungen für Computermodellierung in der Politikberatung sind zunehmende Komplexität, mangelnde Transparenz, Sicherstellung der Glaubwürdigkeit und Kommunikation von Modellen sowie ihrer Aussagekraft.

  • Politik(beratung) aus dem Computer. Gastkommentar. / Bauer, Anja.
    In: APA Science-Dossier 'Die simulierte Forschung', No. 28.6.2018, 28.06.2018.
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Conference Papers/Speeches

  • Brussels

    The politics of models: socio-political discourses in the modelling of energy transition and transnational trade policies; EU Conference on modelling for policy support

    Capari, L. (Speaker), Udrea, T.-I. (Speaker), Fuchs, D. ((Co-)Author) & Bauer, A. ((Co-)Author)

    26 Nov 2019

  • Bratislava

    New Methods for TA -Computational Content Analysis: Experiences, Potentials and Challenges

    Udrea, T.-I. (Speaker), Fuchs, D. (Speaker), Capari, L. (Speaker) & Bauer, A. (Speaker)

    5 Nov 2019

  • Bratislava

    "Limits to ... predictive power” –policy advice in the age of computational modelling

    Bauer, A. (Speaker), Capari, L. (Speaker), Fuchs, D. (Speaker) & Udrea, T.-I. (Speaker)

    4 Nov 2019

  • Bratislava

    Using Automated Text Analysis Methods to Uncover Socio-Political Narratives within Computer Modelling and Simulations (CMS)

    Capari, L. (Speaker), Udrea, T.-I. (Speaker), Fuchs, D. ((Co-)Author) & Bauer, A. ((Co-)Author)

    4 Nov 2019

  • Bratislava

    The socio-political narratives of computer models: Insights from the modelling of trade policies, energy systems and the risks of nanotechnologies

    Fuchs, D. (Speaker), Bauer, A. ((Co-)Author), Capari, L. ((Co-)Author) & Udrea, T.-I. ((Co-)Author)

    4 Nov 2019

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Duration

06/2018 - 05/2020

Project team

Funding