An Overabundance of Low-density Neptune-like Planets
We present a uniform analysis of the atmospheric escape rate of Neptune-like planets with estimated radius and mass (restricted to Mp < 30 M⊕). For each planet, we compute the restricted Jeans escape parameter, Λ, for a hydrogen atom evaluated at the planetary mass, radius, and equilibrium temperature. Values of Λ ≲ 20 suggest extremely high mass-loss rates. We identify 27 planets (out of 167) that are simultaneously consistent with hydrogen-dominated atmospheres and are expected to exhibit extreme mass-loss rates. We further estimate the mass-loss rates (Lhy) of these planets with tailored atmospheric hydrodynamic models. We compare Lhy to the energy-limited (maximum-possible high-energy driven) mass-loss rates. We confirm that 25 planets (15 per cent of the sample) exhibit extremely high mass-loss rates (Lhy > 0.1 M⌖ Gyr−1), well in excess of the energy-limited mass-loss rates. This constitutes a contradiction, since the hydrogen envelopes cannot be retained given the high mass-loss rates. We hypothesize that these planets are not truly under such high mass-loss rates. Instead, either hydrodynamic models overestimate the mass-loss rates, transit-timing-variation measurements underestimate the planetary masses, optical transit observations overestimate the planetary radii (due to high-altitude clouds), or Neptunes have consistently higher albedos than Jupiter planets. We conclude that at least one of these established estimations/techniques is consistently producing biased values for Neptune planets. Such an important fraction of exoplanets with misinterpreted parameters can significantly bias our view of populations studies, like the observed mass–radius distribution of exoplanets for example.