Special issue on:

Population and Climate Change

(Vol. 22)

Guest editors: Roman Hoffmann, Liliana Andriano, Marion Borderon, Kathryn Grace, Tobias Rüttenauer, and Erich Striessnig

Managing editor: Maria Winkler-Dworak



Research Articles

Temperature- and seasonality-related infectious disease mortality among infants: A retrospective time-series study of Sweden, 1868–1892


Impact of urban outdoor thermal conditions on selected hospital admissions in Novi Sad, Serbia


Projecting environmental impacts with varying population, affluence and technology using IPAT– Climate change and landuse scenarios


Details & Abstracts


Research Articles


Temperature- and seasonality-related infectious disease mortality among infants: A retrospective time-series study of Sweden, 1868–1892

Johan Junkka, Centre for Demographic and Ageing Research, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
Maria Hiltunen, Centre for Demographic and Ageing Research, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 22, 2024, pages (tbd - online-first)
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi: 10.1553/p-33g4-pgab

cite as:
Junkka, J., and Hiltunen, M. (2024). Temperature- and seasonality-related infectious disease mortality among infants: A retrospective time-series study of Sweden, 1868–1892. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 22. https://doi.org/10.1553/p-33g4-pgab 

first online: 01.02.2024

Abstract:

Climate conditions, such as ambient temperatures, play a crucial role in infants' vulnerability to infectious diseases. However, little is known about how climate conditions, such as temperatures and seasonality, affect infectious disease mortality among infants in high mortality settings. The aim of our study was to investigate the association between cause-specific infant mortality and ambient temperatures and seasonality. We applied a retrospective study design using parish register data from Sweden covering the 1868–1892 period in combination with daily temperature data. Mortality due to water- and foodborne diseases, airborne infectious diseases and other causes was modelled as a function of temperature exposure in the previous 14 days using distributed lagged non-linear models. We found that airborne infectious diseasemortality was not related to cold temperatures, but rather to seasonality. The summer peaks in mortality due to water- and foodborne infections were associated with high temperatures, and not with seasonality. The increased vulnerability of infants to infectious diseases at high temperatures is a significant future risk, given that global temperatures are projected to rise in the coming decades.

Keywords: temperature; seasonality; Infectious disease; infant mortality; retrospective study

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Impact of urban outdoor thermal conditions on selected hospital admissions in Novi Sad, Serbia

Daniela Arsenovic, University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Sciences, Novi Sad, Serbia
Stevan Savic, University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Sciences, Novi Sad, Serbia
Dragan Miloševic, Wageningen University, Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen, Netherlands
Zorana Lužanin, University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Sciences, Novi Sad, Serbia
Milena Kojic, Institute of Economic Sciences, Belgrade, Serbia
Ivana Radic, University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Medicine, Novi Sad, Serbia and Institute of Public Health of Vojvodina, Novi Sad, Serbia
Sanja Harhaji, University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Medicine, Novi Sad, Serbia and Institute of Public Health of Vojvodina, Novi Sad, Serbia
Miodrag Arsic, Institute of Public Health of Vojvodina, Novi Sad, Serbia

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 22, 2024, pages (tbd - online-first)
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi: 10.1553/p-m53z-m2eh

cite as:
Arsenovic, D., Savic, S., Miloševic, D., Lužanin, Z., Kojic, M., Radic, I., Harhaji, S., and Arsic, M. (2024). Impact of urban outdoor thermal conditions on selected hospital admissions in Novi Sad, Serbia. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 22. https://doi.org/10.1553/p-m53z-m2eh

first online: 01.02.2024

Abstract:

Climate change has been recognized as an important issue in public health, with particular concerns being raised about the effects of heat and cold extremes on health, and about seasonal changes over the year and their associations with increased mortality and hospitalizations. This paper explored the relationship between physiological equivalent temperature (PET) and cardiovascular and respiratory hospital admissions in Novi Sad (Serbia) with the aim of assessing the impact of urban outdoor thermal conditions on health. Analysis was performed using daily data on cardiovascular and respiratory hospital admissions by gender covering the period from January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2017. For the same period, PET was calculated using data from two urban meteorological network stations. The association between PET and hospital admissions was examined using a generalized additive model (GAM) combined with a distributed lag non-linearmodel (DLNM). The study found a non-linear relationship between PET and cardiovascular and respiratory hospital admissions, with a larger impact during the cold period of the year. The findings also indicated that under conditions of high PET, the cumulative RR increased for cardiovascular admissions (for males) and respiratory admissions (for females). People with pre-existing respiratory diseases were found to be more vulnerable under conditions of extremely low and moderately low PET, with a greater effect at lag 0–14 days. By contrast, for people with cardiovascular diseases, low PET was linked to a decrease in hospital admissions, with the risk being lowest at lag 0 and 0–3 days.

Keywords: hospital admission; physiological equivalent temperature; cardiovascular diseases; respiratory diseases; Serbia

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Projecting environmental impacts with varying population, affluence and technology using IPAT – Climate change and land use scenarios

Emma Engström, Institute for Futures Studies, Stockholm, Sweden and Department of Urban Planning and Environment, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden
Martin Kolk, Institute for Futures Studies, Stockholm, Sweden and Stockholm University Demography Unit, Department of Sociology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 22, 2024, pages (tbd - online-first)
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi: 10.1553/p-n5en-z38a

cite as:
Engström, E., and Kolk, M. (2024). Projecting environmental impacts with varying population, affluence and technology using IPAT – Climate change and land use scenarios. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 22. https://doi.org/10.1553/p-n5en-z38a 

first online: 01.02.2024

Abstract:

We theoretically explore the interrelations between population (P), affluence (A) and technology (T) for various environmental impacts (I ) using IPAT-type modelling. To illustrate the differences across environmental dimensions, climate and land use impacts are modelled. We use middle-of-the-road projections for population and per capita income and different forecasting methods for technology, including extrapolations of historical trends, models based on stochastic IPAT (STIRPAT) and predictions in the literature. The different approaches are compared within the IPAT framework. We also explore the consequences of alternative trajectories for P, A and T, and we discuss the implications of these trajectories for reaching global goals based on our modelling. The findings are analysed in light of three theories in environmental sociology, each of which places a different emphasis on the different components of IPAT. We argue that the large amount of technological mitigation assumed in many forecasts makes affluence and population relatively irrelevant for climate change. However, we also consider it likely that both factors will be determinants of land use impact in the 21st century.

Keywords: IPAT; environmental Kuznets curve (EKC); green growth; human ecology; STIRPAT model; land use impact

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Supplementary Files: Supplementary material