Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2015
Special issue on:
Demographic differential vulnerability to climate-related disasters
(Vol. 13)
Guest editors: Raya Muttarak and Leiwen Jiang
Managing Editor: Bilal Barakat
Table of contents
Introduction
What can demographers contribute to the study of vulnerability?
Demographic Debate
Why are so few demographers working on population and climate change?
Engagement of demographers in environmental issues from a historical perspective
The next best time for demographers to contribute to climate change research
Will climate change shift demography’s ‘normal science’?
Barriers to involvement of Chinese demographers in climate change research
Population dynamics and climate change: A challenging frontier for the intrepid demographer
Two statements on population and sustainable development produced by global scientific panels in 2002 and 2012
Refereed Articles
Differential mortality from extreme climate events
Differential mortality patterns from hydro-meteorological disasters: Evidence from cause-of-death data by age and sex
Daily mortality changes in Taiwan in the 1970s: An examination of the relationship between temperature and mortality
Spatial patterns of social vulnerability to weather and climate Extremes
Assessing the effectiveness of a social vulnerability index in predicting heterogeneity in the impacts of natural hazards: Case study of the Tropical Storm Washi flood in the Philippines
Social vulnerability to floods in two coastal megacities: New York City and Mumbai
Differential risk perceptions and climate actions
Who perceives what? A demographic analysis of subjective perception in rural Thailand
Who is concerned about and takes action on climate change? Gender and education divides among Thais
Forecasting future societies’ vulnerability and adaptive capacity through the lens of human capital
Future differential vulnerability to natural disasters by level of education
The demography of human development and climate change vulnerability: A projection exercise
A four-dimensional population module for the analysis of future adaptive capacity in the Phang Nga province of Thailand
Details & Abstracts
What can demographers contribute to the study of vulnerability?
Raya Muttarak (corresponding author), Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human
Capital (IIASA, VID/̈ÖAW, WU), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Vienna Institute of Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna, Austria
Wolfgang Lutz, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/̈ÖAW, WU), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Vienna Institute of Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU), Vienna, Austria
Leiwen Jiang, Asian Demographic Research Institute (ADRI), Shanghai University, Shanghai, China and National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 13, 2015, pages 1-13
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2015s001
Engagement of demographers in environmental issues rom a historical perspective
Peter McDonald,Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University, Acton ACT 0200,Australia
Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 13, 2015, pages 15-17
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2015s015
The next best time for demographers to contribute to climate change research
Anastasia J. Gage, Department of Global Community Health and Behavioral Sciences, TulaneUniversity School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, New Orleans, LA 70112, USA
Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 13, 2015, pages 19-22
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2015s019
Will climate change shift demography’s ‘normal science’?
Lori M. Hunter (corresponding author), Institute of Behavioral Science, University of ColoradoBoulder, USAJane Menken, Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado Boulder, USA
Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 13, 2015, pages 23-28
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2015s023
Barriers to involvement of Chinese demographers in climate change research
Xizhe Peng (corresponding author), Research Center for Population and Development Policies,Fudan University, Shanghai, China
Qin Zhu, Research Center for Population and Development Policies, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 13, 2015, pages 29-31
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2015s029
Population dynamics and climate change: A challenging frontier for the intrepid demographer
Adrian C. Hayes, School of Demography, Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200,Australia
Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 13, 2015, pages 33-36
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2015s033
Two statements on population and sustainable development produced by global scientific panels in 2002 and 2012
Wolfgang Lutz, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/̈ÖAW, WU), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Vienna Institute of Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU), Vienna, Austria
Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 13, 2015, pages 37-45
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2015s037
Differential mortality patterns from hydro-meteorological disasters: Evidence from cause-of-death data by age and sex
Emilio Zagheni, Department of Sociology and eScience Institute, University of Washington, Seattle, USA
Raya Muttarak, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/̈OAW, WU), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Vienna Institute of Demography,Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna, Austria
Erich Striessnig (corresponding author), Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/̈ÖAW, WU), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Vienna Institute of Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna, Austria
Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 13, 2015, pages 47-70
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2015s047
Abstract:
This paper evaluates the heterogeneous impact of hydro-meteorological disasters on populations along the dimensions of age, sex, and human development. The analysis is based on previously untapped cause-of-death data over the period 1995– 2011 that were obtained from the WHO mortality database, and were based on the civil registration records of 63 countries/territories. Using these data, we evaluate patterns of mortality related to meteorological disasters in the spirit of model life tables.We observe that mortality rates from hydro-meteorological disasters for men are consistently higher than for women across all age groups, and that the differential by sex is larger for adults than for young children or the elderly. Furthermore, the sex differential in mortality becomes smaller with improvements in human development. Comparing our disaster fatalities with those recorded in the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT), we find that the number of deaths from hydro-meteorological disasters was underestimated in the WHO database, especially in the case of highimpact events. In the paper we discuss issues of data quality and data harmonisation for the study of the differential demographic impact of natural disasters. One of our main goals is to stimulate an interdisciplinary debate in this area.
Daily mortality changes in Taiwan in the 1970s: An examination of the relationship between temperature and mortality
Zhongwei Zhao (corresponding author), Australian Demographic and Social Research Institute,Australian National University, 9 Fellows Road, Acton ACT 2601, AustraliaYuan Zhu, Research School of Finance, Actuarial Studies & Statistics, College of Business andEconomics, Australian National University, AustraliaEdwardJow-Ching Tu, Senior consultant, Asian Demographics and Retired Faculty of Hong KongUniversity of Sciences and Technology, Hong Kong
Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 13, 2015, pages 71-90
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2015s071
Abstract:
Growing evidence indicates that world temperatures have increased in recent history, and that this trend is likely to continue in the future. The rise in global temperatures has been accompanied by an increase in extreme weather events, which often have devastating environmental, economic, demographic, and social effects. As concern about the impact of climate change has grown in recent years, there has been a considerable increase in the number of studies published on the effects of extreme temperatures. However, detailed, systematic, and historical investigations into the relationship between temperature and mortality relationship are still difficult to find. This study fills some of these gaps. By examining the impact of extreme temperatures on mortality in Taiwan in the 1970s, our aim is to answer the following questions: (1) Is a lower or a higher temperature recorded in winter or summer related to higher daily mortality? (2) Is mortality higher in particular years with extreme temperatures than it is in the corresponding periods of other years with normal temperatures? (3) Finally, if more extreme temperatures are indeed associated with higher mortality, what kinds of people tend to face higher mortality risks? This study shows that variations in daily mortality were related to changes in temperature in Taiwan over the study period. Cold temperatures in the winter, hot temperatures in the summer, and unusually cold or hot temperatures were all associated with higher mortality. In comparison with other times of the year, the proportions of people who died at old or very young ages were relatively high during cold periods. The proportions of deaths caused by cardiovascular diseases were also relatively high, and these deaths contributed to the high mortality levels in winter time. Meanwhile, during the hot periods relatively high proportions of children and young people died of injuries or poisoning, and relatively high proportions of people died of respiratory diseases; both of these causes of death were closely related to mortality increases in the summer. In comparison with recent decades, however, these patterns were more observable in the 1970s, when the public health and the socioeconomic development levels in Taiwan were not as advanced as they are today.
Assessing the effectiveness of a social vulnerability index in predicting heterogeneity in the impacts of natural hazards: Case study of the Tropical Storm Washi flood in the Philippines
J. Andres F. Ignacio (corresponding author), Environmental Science for Social Change, Grace T. Cruz, Population Institute, University of the Philippines, Quezon City, PhilippinesFernando Nardi, Universit`a per Stranieri di Perugia, ItalySabine Henry, Department of Geography, University of Namur, Belgium
Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 13, 2015, pages 91 - 121
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2015s091
Abstract:
As global warming and climate change predictions become increasingly certain,there is mounting pressure to gain a better understanding of disaster risk. Climate change is seen as a major contributing factor in the recent increases in the losses and damages attributed to hazard extremes. Vulnerability is one of the key components of risk. Yet identifying who the vulnerable segments of the population are, and to which specific hazards different groups are vulnerable, remains a challenge.Measuring social vulnerability has become an active area of research, with scholars attempting to capture the differential vulnerabilities of the population exposed to certain hazards. To address these research challenges, we developed in this study social vulnerability indices at the most basic level of governance in the Philippines using raw, individual-level census data for the entire country. Our goal in conducting this research is to establish relationships between the derived vulnerability measurements and flood exposure and the impacts of coastal flash floods triggered by Tropical Storm Washi in the southern Philippines in December2011. We find that exposure rather than vulnerability appears to play a greater role in the magnitude of the losses and damages resulting from this particular type o fhazard at the localized scale.
Social vulnerability to floods in two coastalmegacities: New York City and Mumbai
Alex de Sherbinin (corresponding author), Center for International Earth Science Information Network(CIESIN), The Earth Institute, Columbia University, Guillem Bardy, ́Ecole Polytechnique, Paris, France
Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 13, 2015, pages 131-165
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2015s131
Abstract:
In this paper we assess differential exposure to flooding in two coastal mega cities, New York and Mumbai, both of which suffered major flood-related disasters in the past decade. Specifically, we examine whether the most exposed populations are also the most socially vulnerable. First, we developed Social Vulnerability Indices(SoVIs) for each city with census data. We then overlaid the SoVI scores onto flood extent maps for Hurricane Sandy (New York, October 2012) and the Mumbaiflash floods (July 2005), as well as for the evacuation zones for New York, to examine patterns of differential exposure. Our results suggest a degree of differential exposure in New York, especially in the highest flood risk areas, and provide fairly clear evidence for differential exposure in Mumbai. However, differences in the input resolution and confidence in the data sets for Mumbai make the results more uncertain. The paper concludes with a discussion of the policy implications and the data needs for urban spatial vulnerability assessments.
Who perceives what? A demographic analysis ofsubjective perception in rural Thailand
Jacqueline Meijer-Irons, Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology, University of Washington
Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 13, 2015, pages 167-191
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2015s167
Abstract:
Rural households that rely on natural resources for their livelihoods are expected to face increased vulnerability due to climate variability. A number of empirical papers have assessed the impact of environmental shocks on these households,including demographic research that has investigated the impact of shocks on migration. To date, few studies have explicitly modeled how individual and household characteristics influence a household respondent’s subjective perceptions of environmental or other shocks. My paper uses a unique panel dataset from rural Thailand to predict a respondent’s probability of attributing a reduction in income to an environmental shock based on household composition and income, as well as on community-level eeffcts. Preliminary results suggest that household composition influences respondents’ perceptions of environmental risk, and that policies aimed at vulnerable communities should consider the life courses of the households within a given community.
Who is concerned about and takes action on climate change? Gender and education divides among Thais
Raya Muttarak (corresponding author), Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human
Capital (IIASA, VID/̈ÖAW, WU), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Vienna
Institute of Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna, Austria
Email: muttarak(at)iiasa.ac.at
Thanyaporn Chankrajang, Faculty of Economics, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand
Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 13, 2015, pages 193-220
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2015s193
Abstract:
Using data from Opinions about the Environment and Global Warming 2010, anationally representative survey of 3900 adults, this study investigates demographicdifferentials in levels of concern about climate change and climate-relevantbehaviours. The factor analysis of 11 environmentally friendly and carbon emissionsreduction behaviours identifies two main factors that underlie climate-relevantbehaviours: (1) efforts to save electricity and water, and (2) technical andbehavioural changes. The multivariate analyses show that women and individualswith higher education are more likely than others to worry a great deal about globalwarming, and to make technical and behavioural changes. It may be the case thateducation is positively correlated with making technical and behavioural changes,but not with making efforts to save electricity or water, because the former set ofactions require more effort and knowledge to pursue, while the latter set of actionsare commonly undertaken for economic reasons. Having concerns about globalwarming and having experienced environmental problems are also associated withan increased adoption of climate-relevant behaviours.
Future differential vulnerability to naturaldisasters by level of education
Erich Striessnig (corresponding author), Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global HumanCapital (IIASA, VID/ ̈OAW, WU), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), ViennaInstitute of Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna, Austria
Elke Loichinger, College of Population Studies, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand
Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 13, 2015, pages 221-240
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2015s221
Abstract:
The present paper looks at the implications of anticipated changes in populationsize and composition for the projected number of deaths from natural disastersBuilding on empirical evidence from cross-country time series of factors associatedwith natural disaster fatalities since 1970 in 174 countries, the paper first highlightsthe major role of education in enabling people to cope with weather extremes in thepast. Using the five demographic scenarios implied by the Shared SocioeconomicPathways (SSPs), which include trajectories for the future of educational expansion,this evidence is translated in the second part of the paper into projections of thenumber of deaths from climate-related extreme natural events for six major worldregions. Assuming constant hazard, we demonstrate the importance of including inassessments of future vulnerability not only the projected population size but thefull population heterogeneity by age, sex and level of education.
The demography of human development andclimate change vulnerability: A projection exercise
Jesus Crespo Cuaresma (corresponding author), Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and GlobalHuman Capital (IIASA, VID/ÖAW, WU), Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU),Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis(IIASA), Vienna, Austria
Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 13, 2015, pages 241-261
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2015s241
Abstract:
We propose a methodological framework aimed at obtaining projections of theHuman Development Index (HDI) that can be used to assess the degree ofvulnerability of future societies to extreme climatic events. By combining recentdevelopments in the modeling and projection of population by age, sex, andeducational attainment, our modeling set-up ensures that the different componentsof the HDI are projected using a self-contained, consistent modeling effort. Wedevelop scenarios that correspond to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)developed in the context of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),and thus present a projection framework that can be used to expand the evaluationof the potential mitigation and adaptation challenges associated with climate changein general, and with vulnerability to natural disasters in particular.
A four-dimensional population module for theanalysis of future adaptive capacity in thePhang Nga province of Thailand
Elke Loichinger (corresponding author), College of Population Studies, Chulalongkorn University,Visid Prajuabmoh Building, Bangkok 10330, Thailand
Samir KC, Asian Demographic Research Institute (ADRI), Shanghai University, Shanghai, China,Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/ ̈OAW, WU),International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
Wolfgang Lutz, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/ ̈OAW,WU), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Vienna Institute of Demography,Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU), Vienna, Austria
Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 13, 2015, pages 263-287
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2015s263
Abstract:
In this paper we describe an innovative aspect of the population module in thecontext of an ongoing comprehensive modelling effort to assess future population-environment interactions through specific case studies. A particular focus of ourstudy is the vulnerability of coastal populations to environmental factors andtheir future adaptive capacity. Based on the four-dimensional cross-classificationof populations by age, sex, level of education, and labour force participation,our approach builds on a recent body of research that has critically assessed therole of demographic differentials as determinants of differential vulnerability andadaptive capacity. We use Phang Nga, a province in the south of Thailand that wasseverely affected by the tsunami in 2004, to describe current levels of educationalattainment and investigate past trends, which in turn serve as input for detailededucation projections. These education projections, in combination with projectionsof economic activity and household survey results about disaster preparedness,feed into further analysis of future adaptive capacity. Given our specifications andassumptions, we find that the educational composition of the province’s labour forcewill shift towards higher levels, and that the population of Phang Nga will be betterprepared for future disasters.
