Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2022

Paola Di Giulio, Vienna Institute of Demography (OeAW), Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna), Vienna, Austria
Anne Goujon, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna), Vienna, Austria
Guillaume Marois, Asian Demographic Research Institute, Shanghai University, Shanghai, China

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 20, 2022, pages 1-11
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2022.int01

cite as:
Di Giulio, P., Goujon, A., Marois, G. (2022). The population aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic in 20 papers: an introduction. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 20. https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.int01

first online: 13.12.2022

Abstract:

The introduction to the 2022 Special Issue presents the 20 articles that discuss the demographic aspects and the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. It synthesises the main findings from the contributions, emphasising the demographic, social and economic characteristics that influenced the spread of infections and determined the number of deaths. We highlight the specific focus on measurement issues, often with a comparative framework across several countries, and at the regional level as well, both within and beyond Europe. We also summarise the impact of the measures imposed to contain the spread of the virus, such as lockdowns. Moreover, we explore the impact of the pandemic on the quality of relationships, the intention and the motivation to have children, and realised fertility. In addition, we present the authors’ broader reflections on the risks faced by different communities of individuals, and the potential consequences for their life trajectories, including in relation to other current risks that overlap with the pandemic (recent armed conflicts), and for the achievability of the Sustainable Development Goals themselves.

Keywords: COVID-19; demographic impact; mortality, infections; fertility; eco-nomic impact; social impact

PDF

Karl Ulrich Mayer, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin, Germany, and Yale University, New Haven,USA

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 20, 2022, pages 15-37
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2022.per01

cite as:
Mayer, K. U. (2022). Aspects of a sociology of the pandemic: Inequalities and the life course. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 20. https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.per01

first online: 28.07.2022

Abstract:

Over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, the contributions of the social sciences to discussions about pandemic management have become more visible and more significant. In this essay, I review major aspects of a sociology of the pandemic. After providing an overview of the potential contributions of the different fields of sociology (the “toolbox” of sociology), I discuss two main domains: first, social inequalities and how they relate to the process of the spread of COVID-19 from exposure and infection, and to the consequences of the pandemic in the wider population; and, second, the potential long-term effects of the pandemic on the life course.

Keywords: COVID-19; pandemic; social inequality; life course; social networks; social norms

PDF

F. Landis MacKellar, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 20, 2022, pages 39-81
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2022.per02

cite as:
MacKellar, F. L., (2022). COVID-19, the Russo-Ukrainian War, the global sustainable development project and post-crises demography. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 20. https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.per02

first online: 13.12.2022

Abstract:

The global sustainable development project as currently conceived is foundering, and the twin crises of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russo-Ukrainian War have driven a stake through its heart. Some of the reasons for this failure are fundamental design flaws, while others are practical. The resources to bring the project – or its successor, and any other global sustainable development project of similar design and ambition that might emerge – to a successful conclusion do not exist, and never did. What lessons are we learning, and how can they inform post-2030 sustainable development goals? In this essay, the effects of the catastrophes of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the global sustainable development project are enumerated, SDG by SDG, with special attention being paid to the implications for demography. In closing, recommendations for reforms of the
project are presented, as are some suggestions for the field of demography in the changed global context. The most concrete, feasible immediate recommendations are to make up recently lost ground, specifically in the areas of vaccination and education; and to reform the profoundly flawed international asylum and refugee system.

Keywords: sustainable development; COVID-19; Russian invasion of Ukraine; demography

PDF

David A. Sánchez-Páez, Centre for Demographic Research (DEMO), Université Catholique de Louvain. Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 20, 2022, pages 85-106
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res1.1

cite as:
Sánchez-Páez, D. (2021). Effects of income inequality on COVID-19 infections and deaths during the first wave of the pandemic: Evidence from European countries. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 20. https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res1.1

first online: 03.08.2021

Abstract:

Evidence from research on infectious diseases suggests that income inequality is related to higher rates of infection and death in disadvantaged population groups.
Our objective is to examine whether there was an association between income inequality and the numbers of cases and deaths during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in European countries. We determined the duration of the first wave by first smoothing the number of daily cases, and then using a LOESS regression to fit the smoothed trend. Next, we estimated quasi-Poisson regressions. Results from the bivariate models suggest there was a moderate positive association between the Gini index values and the cumulated number of infections and deaths during the first wave, although the statistical significance of this association disappeared
when controls were included. Results from multivariate models suggest that higher numbers of infections and deaths from COVID-19 were associated with countries having more essential workers, larger elderly populations and lower health carecapacities.

Keywords: COVID-19; income inequality; first wave; European countries

PDF

Miguel Sánchez-Romero Vienna Institute of Demography (OeAW), Wittgenstein Centre of Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna), Vienna, Austria and International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 20, 2022, pages 107-141
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res1.2

cite as:
Sánchez-Romero, M. (2022). Assessing the generational impact of COVID-19 using National Transfer Accounts (NTAs). Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 20. https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res1.2

first online: 25.01.2022

Abstract:

An important aspect of the current COVID-19 crisis is that not all age groups are equally affected by the pandemic. To account for the generational impact of COVID-19, a dynamic overlapping generations model with realistic demography, human capital and NTAs is constructed. The COVID-19 crisis is modelled through two unexpected and temporary negative shocks: an economic shock that reduces labour income, and a demographic shock that increases the mortality hazard rates of those infected. The model is applied to 12 countries for which full NTA data are available. Results are presented for two extreme fiscal policies: one in which governments compensate workers for 0% (without fiscal support) of their total labour income losses due to the pandemic, and another in which governments compensate workers for 100% (with fiscal support) of these losses. In addition, I analyse the impact of these policies on public debt. The results show that COVID-19 is affecting the
financial situations of people aged 25 to 64 and their children more than those of older people. By compensating workers for their income losses, the economic impact of COVID-19 has been more evenly distributed across cohorts, reducing the burden on people aged zero to 64, and increasing the burden on people aged 65 and older. Moreover, the simulation results show that a 1% decline in labour income leads to an average increase in the debt-to-total labour income ratio of between 1.2% (without fiscal policy) and 1.6% (with fiscal policy).

Keywords: COVID-19; National Transfer Accounts; overlapping generations; lifecycle model, generational accounts; debt

PDF

Supplementary files:  supplementary material | Summary of NTA country profiles

Luis Rosero-Bixby (corresponding author), University of Costa Rica, San Pedro, SJ, Costa Rica
Tim Miller, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nation

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 20, 2022, pages 143-166
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res1.3

cite as:
Rosero-Bixby, L. and Miller, T. (2021). The mathematics of the reproduction number R for Covid-19: A primer for demographers. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 20. https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res1.3

first online: 15.12.2021

Abstract:
The reproduction number R is a key indicator used to monitor the dynamics of Covid-19 and to assess the effects of infection control strategies that frequently have high social and economic costs. Despite having an analog in demography’s “net reproduction rate” that has been routinely computed for a century, demographers may not be familiar with the concept and measurement of R in the context of Covid-19. This article is intended to be a primer for understanding and estimating R in demography. We show that R can be estimated as a ratio between the numbers of new cases today divided by the weighted average of cases in previous days. We present two alternative derivations for these weights based on how risks have changed over time: constant vs. exponential decay. We then provide estimates of these weights, and demonstrate their use in calculating R to trace the course of the first pandemic year in 53 countries.

PDF

Supplementary Files:  Data Set (Excel)  |   Data Set (DTA)

Patrizio Vanella* (corresponding author), Department of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research (HZI), Brunswick, Germany and Chair of Empirical Methods in Social Science and Demography, University of Rostock
Germany
Christian Wiessner*, Institute of Medical Biometry and Epidemiology, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf (UKE), Hamburg, Germany
Anja Holz ***, Institute of Medical Biometry and Epidemiology, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf (UKE), Hamburg, Germany
Gérard Krause***, Department of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research (HZI), Brunswick, Germany and German Center for Infection Research (DZIF), Brunswick, German
Annika Möhl***, Institute of Medical Biometry and Epidemiology, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf (UKE), Hamburg, Germany
Sarah Wiegel ***, Institute of Medical Biometry and Epidemiology, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf (UKE), Hamburg, Germany
Berit Lange**, Department of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research (HZI), Brunswick, Germany and German Center for Infection Research (DZIF), Brunswick, German
Heiko Becher**,  Institute of Medical Biometry and Epidemiology, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf (UKE), Hamburg, Germany

* Shared first authors
** Shared last authors
*** In alphabetical order

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 20, 2022, pages 167-193
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res1.4

cite as:
Vanella, P., Wiessner, C., Holz, A., Krause, G., Möhl, A., Wiegel, S., Lange, B. and Becher, H. (2022). Pitfalls and solutions in case fatality risk estimation – A multi-country analysis on the effects of demographics, surveillance, time lags between case reports and deaths and healthcare system capacity on COVID-19 CFR estimates. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 20. doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res1.4

first online: 15.2.2022

Abstract:
Across European countries, there have been large differences in COVID-19 case fatality risk (CFR) estimates, and considerable variation in these estimates over time. CFR estimates vary depending on both the method used for estimation and country-specific characteristics. While crude methods simply use cumulative total numbers of cases and deaths, the CFR can be influenced by the demographic characteristics of the cases, the case detection rates, the time lags between the reporting of infections and deaths and infrastructure characteristics, such as healthcare capacities. We use publicly available weekly data for 11 European countries on the COVID-19 case and death numbers by age group for the year 2020. Moreover, we use data on national weekly test rates to adjust the case numbers, and to investigate the effects of different time lags between the reporting of cases and deaths on the estimation of CFRs. Finally, we describe the association between case fatality rates and the demand for hospital and intensive care unit beds for COVID-19 cases, while taking into account national bed capacities. The crude CFR estimates differ considerably across the investigated countries. In the crude international CFR time series, the differences are smaller when adjusting for the demographics of the cases. Differences in testing policies significantly affect the CFR estimates as well. However, the question of precisely how these testing procedures should be adjusted requires further investigation. Lag adjustments of CFRs do not lead to improvements in estimates of COVID-19 CFRs, and no connection between hospital capacities and CFRs can be found for the countries included in our study.

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic; epidemiological surveillance; case fatality risk; demographics; vulnerable populations; testing policy; healthcare; public health

PDF

Daniela Bellani, (corresponding author) Department of Political and Social Sciences, Scuola Normale Superiore, Florence, Italy
Daniele Vignoli, Department of Statistics, Computer Science, Applications “G. Parenti”, University of Florence, Florence, Italy

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 20, 2022, pages 195-221
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res1.5

cite as:
Bellani, D., Vignoli, D. (2022)  COVID-19 and relationship quality: Emotional, paid work and organizational spheres Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 20. https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res1.5

first online: 16.03.2022

Abstract:
This study contributes to the growing literature on the repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic for family functioning, with a special focus on couples’ relationship quality. We advance an analytical model that emphasizes the role of three main stressors of relationship quality during the pandemic: namely, emotional, paid work-related and organizational stressors. To outline such an approach, we analyze whether the onset of the pandemic – and the home confinement that followed – has reduced relationship quality in France, Italy and Spain using survey data collected in April 2020. We show that relationship quality decreased for a non-negligible part of the population, and that this result was driven mostly by the emotional stressor. These negative effects on relationship quality appeared to be relatively stable across genders, different levels of network support and countries; which suggests that the severity of the lockdown measures outweighed the traditional moderating factors usually accounted for in family research.

Keywords: relationship quality; COVID-19; emotions; paid work; organizational issues

PDF

Raffaele Guetto (corresponding author), University of Florence, Italy
Giacomo Bazzani, University of Florence, Italy
Daniele Vignoli, University of Florence, Italy

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 20, 2022, pages 223-260
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res1.6

cite as:
Guetto, R., Bazzani, G. and Vignoli, D.  (2022) Narratives of the future and fertility decision-making in uncertain times. An application to the COVID-19 pandemic. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 20. https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res1.6

first online: 15.02.2022

Abstract:
The sociological and demographic literatures have widely demonstrated that fertility decisions are shaped by individuals’ previous life experiences and socioeconomic status – i.e., the “shadow of the  past.” However, rising uncertainty in contemporary societies necessitates an analytical framework that acknowledges the influence of the future in the fertility decision-making process. Based on the  Narrative Framework, we argue that personal narratives of the future, and their constitutive elements of expectations and imaginaries – i.e., the “shadow of the future” – represent crucial drivers of  fertility intentions under conditions of uncertainty. Our arguments are tested empirically by exploiting the exogenous uncertainty shock provided by the COVID-19 pandemic, and unique data we  collected during the Italian lockdown. Results suggest that, because of COVID-induced uncertainty, subjective perceptions and personal narratives of the future – also shaped by media “shared  narratives” – gained the upper hand over the shadow of the past in influencing fertility intentions. In addition, we provide evidence of a causal impact of shared narratives of the future on fertility intentions through an online experiment simulating a “real” exposure of the respondents to a new media narrative on the expected length of the emergency.

PDF

Wendy D. Manning, Department of Sociology, Center for Family and Demographic Research, Bowling Green State University, Bowling Green, OH, USA
Karen Benjamin Guzzo Department of Sociology, Center for Family and Demographic Research, Bowling Green State University, Bowling Green, OH, USA
Monica A. Longmore, Department of Sociology, Center for Family and Demographic Research, Bowling Green State University, Bowling Green, OH, USA
Peggy C. Giordano, Department of Sociology, Center for Family and Demographic Research, Bowling Green State University, Bowling Green, OH, USA

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 20, 2022, pages 261-284
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res1.7

cite as:
Manning, W. D., Guzzo, K.B., Longmore, M. A., Giordano, P. C. (2022)  Cognitive schemas and fertility motivations in the U.S. during the COVID-19 pandemic Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 20. https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res1.7

first online: 12.4.2022

Abstract:

While current evidence indicates that the United States did not experience a baby boom during the pandemic, few empirical studies have considered the underlying rationale for the American baby bust. Relying on data collected during the pandemic (n = 574), we find that pandemic-related subjective assessments (e.g., self-reported stress, fear of COVID-19 and relationship struggles) and not economic indicators (e.g., employment status, income level) were related to levels of fertility motivations among individuals in relationships. Analysis of within-person changes in fertility motivations shows that shifts in the number of children, increases in mental health issues and increases in relationship uncertainty, rather than changes in economic circumstances, were associated with short-term assessments of the importance of avoiding a pregnancy. We argue for broadening conceptual frameworks of fertility motivations by moving beyond a focus on economic factors to include a cognitive schema that takes subjective concerns into account.

Keywords: pandemic; fertility expectations; subjective appraisals

PDF

Simone Ghislandi, Department of Social and Political Sciences, Bocconi University, Milan, Italy
Raya Muttarak, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna), Schlossplatz, Laxenburg, Austria
Markus Sauerberg, Vienna Institute of Demography (OeAW), Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna), Vienna, Austria
Benedetta Scotti, Department of Social and Political Sciences, Bocconi University, Milan, Italy

Authors are listed in alphabetical order

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 20, 2022, pages 285-316
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res2.1

cite as:
Ghislandi, S., Muttarak, R., Sauerberg, M, and Scotti, B. (2021). Human costs of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in the major epicenters in Italy. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 20. https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res2.1

first online: 21.07.2021

Abstract:
Deaths from COVID-19 can be miscounted due to under-reporting and inaccurate death registration. Mortality is often reported at the national level, which can result in the underestimation of the true scale of the impact of the pandemic since outbreaks tend to be localised. This study exploits all-cause daily death registration data provided by the Italian Statistical Office (ISTAT) from 1 January to 31 October to estimate the excess mortality and the corresponding changes in life expectancy during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Focusing on the five most severely hit provinces in Italy (Bergamo, Brescia, Cremona, Lodi and Piacenza), we calculate the excess mortality in 2020 compared to the average mortality of the years 2015 to 2019. Moreover, we estimate the excess mortality in the first quadrimester of 2020, and the annual life expectancy at birth. The estimated excess deaths show that during this period, mortality was significantly higher than the official mortality statistics for COVID-19. According to our estimates for the first quadrimester, life expectancy in the five provinces declined by 5.4 to 8.1 for men and by 4.1 to 5.8 years for women. In addition, we find that annual life expectancy decreased by 2.4 to 4.1 years for men and by 1.9 to 2.8 years for women compared to the 2015–2019 average. Thus, we conclude that the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic had a substantial impact on population health in the hardest hit areas in Italy.

PDF

Martin Kolk , Demography Unit, Department of Sociology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden, Institute for Future Studies, Stockholm, Sweden, Åbo Akademi, Vasa, Finland
Sven Drefahl , Demography Unit, Department of Sociology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Matthew Wallace, Demography Unit, Department of Sociology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Gunnar Andersson, Demography Unit, Department of Sociology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 20, 2022, pages 317-348
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res2.2

cite as:
Kolk, M., Drefahl, S., Wallace, M. and Andersson, G. (2021). Excess mortality and COVID-19 in Sweden in 2020: A demographic account. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 20. https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res2.2

first online: 27.01.2022

Abstract:
In this study, we provide an account of mortality levels in Sweden in 2020, focusing on both excess mortality and mortality due to COVID-19 deaths. We present various measures of life expectancy for women and men based on age-specific death rates in 2020. Our measures of excess mortality are based on comparisons with benchmarks derived from a previous mortality forecast for 2020 by Statistics Sweden and observed average mortality rates during 2017–2019. We present data on regional and seasonal variation in excess mortality, as well as estimates of Years of Potential Life Lost due to COVID-19. We decompose excess mortality in 2020 into excess mortality due to COVID-19 and excess mortality attributable to other causes. We also provide some estimates on the impact of excess mortality in 2020 on the remaining life expectancy for different cohorts of women and men in Sweden. We demonstrate that the impact of COVID-19 mortality was concentrated at higher ages, and among men in particular. Conversely, some younger age groups experienced negative excess mortality. The mortality changes during 2020 caused life expectancy levels to revert back to those observed in 2018 for women and in 2017 for men.

Keywords: excess mortality; mortality; life expectancy; COVID-19; Sweden

PDF

Supplementary file: Mortality by sex, age and country 2017-2020

Emerson A. Baptista (corresponding author), Center for Demographic, Urban and Environmental Studies (CEDUA), El Colegio de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico
Bernardo L. Queiroz, Department of Demography, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG), Belo Horizonte, Brazil
Everton E. C. Lima, College of Philosophy and Human Sciences (IFCH), University of Campinas (UNICAMP), Campinas, Brazil

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 20, 2022, pages 349-365
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res2.3

cite as:
Baptista, E. A., Queiroz, B., Lima E. E. C. (2022). Regional COVID-19 mortality in Brazil by age. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 20. https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res2.3

first online: 16.03.2022

Abstract:
In this study, we use ternary color-coding to visualize and compare the age structure of deaths from COVID-19 in Brazilian meso-regions using the tricolore package in R, in two different phases of the pandemic. The analysis of the age profile is important to better understand the dynamics of the pandemic, and how it has affected the population over age 25, according to age groups (25–59, 60–79 and >80 years) and subpopulations of the country. The analysis focuses on the first wave of the pandemic, until the end of 2020, and the more recent wave. Overall, the results suggest that when the two recent waves of the  pandemic are compared, different spatial patterns in the distribution of deaths across the country by sex and by age emerge. While the distribution of deaths is found to be concentrated at older ages, we also observe in the more recent period some areas of the country with a concentration of deaths among younger adults. The analysis further indicates that even in areas with a younger population age structure, which could act as a protective factor against complications, the age pattern of mortality is very heterogeneous, and we do not find a clearly defined age and spatial pattern. Our results highlight the importance of looking at the distribution of COVID-19 mortality across small areas, and show that there are many different levels of the pandemic in Brazil at the same time, rather than just one.

Keywords: COVID-19; mortality; age structure; ternary color-coding; meso-regions; Brazil

PDF

Claudia Masferrer, Centro de Estudios Demográficos, Urbanos y Ambientales, El Colegio de México, Mexico City, Mexico
Oscar Rodríguez Chávez, Departamento de Estudios de Población, El Colegio de la Frontera Norte, Juárez, Chihuahua, Mexico

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 20, 2022, pages 367-390
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res2.4

cite as:
Masferrer, C. and Rodríguez Chávez, O. (2022). Are homicides and robberies associated with mortality due to COVID-19? Lessons from Urban Mexico. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 20. https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res2.4

first online: 26.01.2022

Abstract:
Studies on the symbiosis of crime and COVID-19 have analyzed governmentmandated lockdown effects. However, it is unknown to what extent previous crime rates determined a larger and more mortal spread of the pandemic. We study how homicides and robberies in the pre-pandemic year of 2019 are associated with 2020 mortality rates due to COVID-19 in urban municipalities in Mexico. Considering sex differentials in health, exposure to the virus and experiences of violence, we study whether gender differences in mortality exist in 2020. Using publicly available data on deaths due to COVID-19 provided by the Mexican Secretariat of Health, along with a series of indicators to characterize local pre-pandemic conditions of urban municipalities, we estimate a series of ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models on age-standardized crude death rates (ASCDR) by sex. Findings show that homicides—a proxy for criminal violence that might encourage people to stay home—show significant negative associations with mortality rates. Comparatively, robberies—a proxy of local violence and safety—were positively associated with mortality rates for both sexes. Sex differences in the determinants of ASCDR are discussed.

Keywords: COVID-19; criminal violence; social determinants of mortality; gender differences in mortality; urban areas; Mexico

PDF

Ramon Bauer, Statistics Vienna at the City of Vienna’s Department for Economic Affairs, Labour and Statistics (MA 23), Vienna, Austria,
Markus Speringer (corresponding author), Statistics Vienna at the City of Vienna’s Department for Economic Affairs, Labour and Statistics (MA 23), Vienna, Austria,
Peter Frühwirt, Basic Research Section at the City of Vienna’s Department for Economic Affairs, Labour and Statistics (MA 23), Vienna, Austria,
Roman Seidl, Basic Research Section at the City of Vienna’s Department for Economic Affairs, Labour and Statistics (MA 23), Vienna, Austria,
Franz Trautinger, Statistics Vienna at the City of Vienna’s Department for Economic Affairs, Labour and Statistics (MA 23), Vienna, Austria

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 20, 2022, pages 393-414
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.1

cite as:

Bauer, R., Speringer, M., Frühwirt, P., Seidl, R. and Trautinger, F. (2022) Assessing excess mortality in Vienna and Austria after the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 20. https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.1

first online: 17.01.2022

Abstract:

In Austria, the first confirmed COVID-19 death occurred in early March 2020. Since then, the question as to whether and, if so, to what extent the COVID-19 pandemic has increased overall mortality has been raised in the public and academic discourse. In an effort to answer this question, Statistics Vienna (City of Vienna, Department for Economic Affairs, Labour and Statistics) has evaluated the weekly mortality trends in Vienna, and compared them to the trends in other Austrian provinces. For our analysis, we draw on data from Statistics Austria and the Austrian Agency for Health and Food Safety (AGES), which are published along with data on the actual and the expected weekly numbers of deaths via the Vienna Mortality Monitoring website. Based on the definition of excess mortality as the actual number of reported deaths from all causes minus the expected number of deaths, we calculate the weekly prediction intervals of the expected number of deaths for two age groups (0 to 64 years and 65 years and older). The temporal scope of the analysis covers not only the current COVID-19 pandemic, but also previous flu seasons and summer heat waves. The results show the actual weekly numbers of deaths and the corresponding prediction intervals for Vienna and the other Austrian provinces since 2007. Our analysis underlines the importance of comparing time series of COVID-19-related excess deaths at the sub-national level in order to highlight within-country heterogeneities.

Keywords: mortality; excess mortality; COVID-19; regional analysis; Austria

PDF
 

Zilin Li, Division of Public Policy, Center for Aging Science, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Kowloon, Hong Kong SAR, People’s Republic of China
Stuart A. Gietel-Basten (corresponding author) Division of Public Policy, Division of Social Science, Center for Aging Science The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Kowloon, Hong Kong SAR, People’s Republic of China
Rachel Ganly, Division of Social Science, Center for Aging Science, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay,
Kowloon, Hong Kong SAR, People’s Republic of China
Christian Joy Pattawi Cruz, Division of Public Policy, Center for Aging Science, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay,
Kowloon, Hong Kong SAR, People’s Republic of China, Population Institute, University of the Philippines, Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines

All authors contributed equally.

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 20, 2022, pages 415-435
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.2

cite as:

Li, Z., Gietel-Basten, S. A. , Ganly, R.  and Cruz, C. J. P. (2022) COVID-19 in Hong Kong: Policies and community actions mitigate the effects of age structure and population density. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 20. https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.2

first online: 18.01.2022

Abstract:
Despite the various socio-demographic vulnerabilities of Hong Kong to the COVID-19 pandemic, the city has successfully managed four waves of local outbreaks, as shown by its comparatively low numbers of confirmed cases and deaths. In this paper, we identify and differentiate the unique  characteristics of Hong Kong’s COVID-19 outbreaks from those of other territories, and analyse the factors that shaped these characteristics. In particular, we examine four local demographic factors – older age structure, high population density, poor housing conditions and a large migrant population – which, according to current scientific evidence, would likely indicate that the city faces a relatively high risk of the significant spread of
COVID-19. We analyse and explain how multiple policies related to border controls, social distancing, testing and tracing, partial lockdowns and housing management, as well as sustained community actions, helped to mitigate the effects of these significant disadvantages.

Keywords: COVID-19; age structure; population density; policy responses; community action; Hong Kong

PDF

Everton E. C. Lima,  College of Philosophy and Human Sciences (IFCH), University of Campinas (UNICAMP), Campinas, Brazil
Camila F. Soares (corresponding author), College of Philosophy and Human Sciences (IFCH), University of Campinas (UNICAMP), Campinas, Brazil
José H. C. Monteiro da Silva, Centro Latino-americano e Caribenho de Demografia (CELADE), Comissão Econômica para a América Latina e o Caribe – Santiago, Chile

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 20, 2022, pages 437-457
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.3

cite as:

Lima, E. E. C., Soares, C. F., Monteiro da Silva, J. H. C. (2022). Rapid changes in birth counts in Brazilian major cities during the COVID-19 pandemic. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 20. https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.3

first online: 16.3.2022

Abstract:
Since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, Brazil has been among the countries that have been heavily a ected by this novel disease. From March 2020 onwards, records of deaths in Brazil increased as the number of COVID-19 infections skyrocketed. Consequently, many studies have tried to explain how this illness has a ected the overall number of deaths since the start of the pandemic, and have examined the question of whether mortality related to COVID-19 has led to reductions in life expectancy. However, at the time of writing, there have been few empirical analyses of the e ects of the pandemic on births. In this study, we sought to investigate whether the COVID-19 pandemic influenced the recent birth counts of six large cities in Brazil by assessing the most up-to-date vital statistics data that are available. Using data from the municipal health departments of these cities, we compared the number of monthly births from October–December 2020 and January–March 2021 with the number of new-borns in similar months and years before the pandemic. Our results show that there was a strong decline in the number of births in some of the cities analysed, and that most of the reductions occurred among women around the age of 30 years old. It appears that because of the uncertainty surrounding the pandemic, women have been postponing or foregoing the realisation of their fertility intentions, which may have led to a temporary baby bust in some cities of Brazil. However, the COVID-19 pandemic was not found to be associated with faster reductions in births in all Brazilian cities. Indeed, in the cities of Rio de Janeiro and Belo Horizonte, the decreasing trend in birth counts appears to have slowed down, or even reversed.

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic; birth count changes; Brazilian cities

PDF

Andreas Backhaus, Federal Institute for Population Research (BiB), Wiesbaden, Germany

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 20, 2022, pages 495-476
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.4

cite as:

Backhaus, A. (2022) Pregnancies and contraceptive use in four African countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 20. https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.4

first online: 19.07.2022

Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic and the public health measures adopted in response to it have triggered plenty of speculation about the potential impact on fertility in different regions of the globe. This study provides evidence on the fertility response in four sub-Saharan African countries during the first year of the pandemic. Using harmonized data on women of childbearing age from the Performance Monitoring for Action (PMA) data series, this study compares pregnancy rates at the turn of the year 2020/21 to a pre-pandemic baseline. There is no indication of a general increase in pregnancy rates after the beginning of the pandemic. In some of the sample countries, pregnancy rates during this phase of the COVID-19 pandemic instead fell significantly among the youngest and the least educated women of childbearing age, respectively. The findings also indicate that over this period, rates of modern contraceptive usage rose significantly among the surveyed female populations in
several sample countries.

Keywords: fertility; pregnancy; COVID-19, sub-Saharan Africa

PDF
 

Lydia Xourafi, Semion ψ – Social Creative Actions NGO and National Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece
Polyxeni Sardi, Department of Statistics, Athens University of Economics and Business, Athens, Greece
Anastasia Kostaki (corresponding author), Department of Statistics, Athens University of Economics and Business, Athens, Greece

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 20, 2022, pages 477-498
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.5

cite as:

Xourafi, L., Polyxeni, S. and Kostaki, A.  (2022) Exploring psychological vulnerability and responses to the COVID-19 lockdown in Greece. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 20. https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.5

first online: 28.07.2022

Abstract:
This study explores the psychosocial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the population in Greece during the general lockdown period. Specifically, depression, anxiety and stress scores, as well as the factors associated with vulnerability to developing mental health conditions during this period, were investigated. A total of 911 adults participated in an online survey by completing a self-reporting questionnaire that included demographic questions, DASS-42 items (anxiety, stress and depression scales) and other questions related to personal experience. Regression modelling uncovered a significant relationship between gender and DASS scores,with women having significantly higher scores than men for all mental health problems. Participants aged 20–39 years were especially vulnerable to experiencing poor mental health. Unemployed participants reported having worse mental health than others. Having more perceived psychosocial support during the pandemic was associated with lower overall scores. Thus, women, young adults and the unemployed exhibited particularly high levels of vulnerability, while individuals who received social support from relatives and friends during the lockdown were more resilient to the effects of social isolation.

Keywords: COVID-19; lockdown; pandemic consequences; mental health; DASS-42 score; anxiety; depression; stress; digitalisation; teleworking

PDF  |  supplementary material

Nicole Mun Sim Lai, The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York, USA

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 20, 2022, pages 499-526
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.6

cite as:

Lai, M.,  (2022) Why did care home residents face an elevated risk of death from COVID-19? A demographic perspective using data from Belgium and from England and Wales. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 20. https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.6

first online: 19.07.2022

Abstract:
In many countries, deaths from COVID-19 were highly concentrated among care home residents during the initial wave of the pandemic. Care home residents may have faced higher risks of exposure and infection than the general population of older people. Once infected, residents may have been more likely to succumb to this disease as they were both older and frailer than the general population of older people. This study presents a quantified assessment of these factors in Belgium and in England and Wales. In doing so, this paper applies the Das Gupta decomposition method to explain the contributions of these three factors to the observed differences in mortality rates from COVID-19 between older people residing in care homes and older people living at home. According to these estimates, older people residing in care homes were 36 times more likely to die in Belgium and were 23 times more likely to die in England and Wales from COVID-19 than older people living at home during the initial wave of the pandemic. Decomposition of the differences in the mortality rates of these populations in Belgium and in England and Wales showed that the two key determinants were the greater underlying frailty of older people in care homes (accounting for 46% of the differences in Belgium and 66% of the differences in England and Wales) and the higher infection prevalence of older people in care homes (accounting for 40% of the differences in Belgium and 26% of the differences in England and Wales).

Keywords: COVID-19; care home/nursing home; infection prevalence; decomposition

PDF
 

Valentin Rousson, Center for Primary Care and Public Health (Unisanté), University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
Fred Paccaud, Center for Primary Care and Public Health (Unisanté), University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
Isabella Locatelli, Center for Primary Care and Public Health (Unisanté), University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 20, 2022, pages 527-542
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.7

cite as:

Rousson, V., Paccaud, F., Locatelli, I.  (2022) Comparing the loss of life expectancy at birth during the 2020 and 1918 pandemics in six European countries. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 20. doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.7

first online:

Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic that reached Europe in 2020 has often been compared to the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918. In this article, we compare the two pandemics in terms of their respective impacts on the loss of life expectancy at birth in six European countries (France, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland) by estimating life expectancy in 2020 using Eurostat data. We found that the loss of life expectancy at birth was up to 20 times larger between 1917 and 1918 than between 2019 and 2020. A decomposition of these losses clearly shows that in all six countries, the main contributors were older age groups in 2020 and younger age groups in 1918. These observations are consistent with evidence indicating that most COVID-19 fatalities were among the elderly, while a majority of Spanish flu fatalities were among the young.

Keywords: all-cause mortality; COVID-19; Europe; life expectancy decomposition; period life expectancy; Spanish flu.

PDF  |  supplementary material