Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020

Tomáš Sobotka, Vienna Institute of Demography (OeAW), Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna)
Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 18, 2020, pages 1-24
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2020.int01

cite as:
Sobotka, T. 2020. "Introduction: the relevance of studying fertility across time and space" Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020 (Volume 18):1-24.

first online: 21.01.2021

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Alicia Adsera (corresponding author), Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, USA

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 18, 2020, pages 27-32
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2020.deb01

cite as:
Adsera, A. 2020. "International political economy and future fertility trends" Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020 (Volume 18):27-32.

first online: 08.07.2020

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Albert Esteve (corresponding author), Centre d’Estudis Demogràfics,  Barcelona, Spain
Diederik Boertien, Centre d’Estudis Demogràfics,  Barcelona, Spain
Ryohei Mogi, Centre d’Estudis Demogràfics,  Barcelona, Spain
Mariona Lozano, Centre d’Estudis Demogràfics,  Barcelona, Spain

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 18, 2020, pages 33-37
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2020.deb02

cite as:
Esteve, A., Boertien, D., Mogi, R., Lozano, M. 2020. "Moving out the parental home and partnership formation as social determinants of low fertility" Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020 (Volume 18):33-37

first online: 08.07.2020

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Stuart Gietel-Basten, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, People’s Republic of China

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 18, 2020, pages 39-42
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2020.deb03

cite as:
Gietel-Basten, S. 2020. "“Catching up with ‘compressed modernity’” - How the values of Millennials and Gen-Z’ers could reframe gender equity and demographic systems" Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020 (Volume 18):39-42

first online: 30.07.2020

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Trude Lappegård, University of Oslo, Norway

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 18, 2020, pages 43-48
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2020.deb04

cite as:
Lappegård, T. 2020. "Future fertility trends are shaped in the intersection of gender and social stratification" Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020 (Volume 18):43-48

first online: 22.07.2020

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Anna Rotkirch, Population Research Institute, Väestöliitto; Prime Minister’s Office, Government, Finland

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 18, 2020, pages 49-61
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2020.deb05

cite as:
Rotkirch, A. 2020. "The wish for a child" Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020 (Volume 18):49-61

first online: 25.11.2020

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Wolfgang Lutz, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University ofVienna), Department of Demography, University of Vienna, World Population Program (IIASA),Vienna Institute of Demography (VID), Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna, Austria

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 18, 2020, pages 63-70
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2020.deb06

cite as:
Lutz, W. 2020. "Fertility will be determined by changing ideal family size and the empowerment to reach these targets" Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020 (Volume 18):63-70

first online: 04.08.2020

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Setsuya Fukuda, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Tokyo, Japan

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 18, 2020, pages 71-79
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2020.deb07

cite as:
Fukuda, S. 2020. "Marriage will (continue to) be the key to the future of fertility in Japan and East Asia" Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020 (Volume 18):71-79

first online: 22.07.2020

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Yen-hsin Alice Cheng, Institute of Sociology, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 18, 2020, pages 83-120
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2020.rev01

cite as:
Cheng, Y. 2020. "Ultra-low fertility in East Asia: Confucianism and its discontents" Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020 (Volume 18):83-120

first online: 10.09.2020

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David Shapiro (corresponding author), Pennsylvania State University, Santa Fe, USA
Andrew Hinde, Department of Social Statistics and Demography, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 18, 2020, pages 123-140
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2020.res01

cite as:
Shapiro, D., Hinde, A. 2020. "Laggards in the global fertility transition" Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020 (Volume 18):123-140

first online: 09.07.2020

Abstract:

Between the early 1950s and the present, the global fertility transition has been nearly universal in the developing world. However, as of 2017, two countries out of the 190 countries for which the United Nations provides fertility estimates had not yet met the conventional criterion for establishing the onset of the fertility transition (a decline of at least 10 per cent from peak fertility), and another five countries did so only very recently. These are the laggards in the global fertility transition. The countries are all in sub-Saharan Africa: Chad, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, The Gambia, Mali, Niger, and Somalia. This paper first reviews the fertility history of these seven countries, and subsequently provides data on the timing and pace of the global fertility transition in the four major developing regions: Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, Northern Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa. It then explores potential reasons for the slow emergence of fertility decline in each country. The paper concludes with a discussion of each country’s prospects for fertility decline, which generally are weaker than those in the projections of the United Nations.

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Michaela Potančoková (corresponding author), Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University ofVienna), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria, formerly at the Joint Research Centre – European Commission
Guillaume Marois, Asian Demographic Research Institute (ADRI), Shanghai University, Baoshan, Shanghai, China, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University ofVienna), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 18, 2020, pages 141-166
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2020.res02

cite as:
Potančoková, M., Marois, G. 2020. "Projecting future births with fertility differentials reflecting women's educational and migrant characteristics" Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020 (Volume 18):141-166.

first online: 04.08.2020

Abstract:

Building on the well-established knowledge on fertility differentials by educationand nativity/migration status, we employ microsimulation modelling to demonstratethe effect of accounting for such differences in population projections. We considerfertility differentials by educational attainment, enrolment in full-time education,region of birth, age at immigration, and duration of stay in the host country, whichwe introduce step-wise into the microsimulation model for the EU28. Results onprojected TFRs and births by 2060 illustrate the importance of accounting forseveral sources of population heterogeneity. In the context of future educationalexpansion, modelling education differentials for students and for women withcompleted education is needed to capture the postponement effect of education onchildbearing. Future migration assumptions that include migrant fertility differen-tials lead to widely varying projected numbers of future births. At fixed fertilitydifferentials and a fixed composition of immigrant flows, the net effect of immigrantfertility on the overall TFR in the EU28 is projected to increase from the estimated0.12 in 2015–2019 to 0.17 in 2055–59 in the scenario with baseline migration, andto 0.25 in 2055–59 in the scenario with doubled migration.

Keywords:population projection; microsimulation; fertility; education; immigrants

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Ryohei Mogi (corresponding author), Center for Demographic Studies, Barcelona, Spain
Michael Dominic del Mundo, Population Institute, University of the Philippines, Philippines

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 18, 2020, pages 167-184
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2020.res03

cite as:
Mogi, R., del Mundo, M.D.,  2020. "Decomposing changes in first birth trends: Quantum, timing, or variance" Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020 (Volume 18):167-184.

first online: 22.07.2020

Abstract:

In high-income countries, women and men born since the 1940s have delayed the birth of their first child, more of them have remained childless, and the timing of the first birth has become more diverse in these cohorts. The interaction between these three trends makes the research on first birth patterns more complex. This study has two main aims: (1) we introduce an alternative index, Expected Years Without Children (EYWC), to quantify changes in first birth behaviour; and (2) we decompose the changes in EYWC over time into three effects: remaining permanently childless, postponing the first birth, and the expansion of the standard deviation of the mean age at first birth. Using data from the Human Fertility Database, EYWC is calculated to illustrate time trends among women born in the 1910s–1960s in eight countries with longer series of data on cohort first birth trends: Canada, the Czech Republic, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Sweden, and the United States. Our decomposition shows that the changes in EYWC are mainly attributable to postponement in North America and northern Europe, whereas these changes are largely due to increasing shares of women remaining childless in Japan and Portugal.

Keywords: childlessness; postponement of first birth; decomposition method; Coale-McNeil model; life table

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Konstantin Kazenin (corresponding author), Russian Academy for National Economy and Public Administration, Moscow, Russia, National Research Institute – Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia
Vladimir Kozlov, National Research Institute – Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 18, 2020, pages 185-213
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2020.res04

cite as:
Kazenin, K., Kozlov, V. 2020. "What factors support the early age patterns of fertility in a developing country: the case of Kyrgyzstan" Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020 (Volume 18):185-213.

first online: 11.08.2020

Abstract:

We analyse the socio-economic and cultural factors that influence the timing of thefirst birth in Kyrgyzstan. As in several other developing countries in Central Asia,no trend towards the postponement of fertility has been observed in Kyrgyzstan.This contrasts not only with the current trend towards later parenthood that hasbeen documented in highly developed countries, but with an incipient trend towardsa delay in the timing of the first birth that has been reported in many developingcountries. Our study is based on the Multiple Indicators Cluster Survey – 2014(MICS2014), with complementary data drawn from the Demography and HealthSurvey – 2012 (DHS2012). Our analysis of the first union and of the first birth ina union for cohorts of women born between 1965 and 1998 showed that the ratesof union formation and motherhood have increased among the younger cohorts. Wealso found that a woman’s education, labour market experience, and the genderrelations in her family influenced her likelihood of transitioning to a first unionand to motherhood. In addition, we uncovered significant differences in the timingof motherhood and union formation between women of different ethnicities, andlooked at the factors that may have contributed to these differences. The factors thatsupport a stable age pattern of fertility in Kyrgyzstan are of interest when conductingbroader comparative research on fertility timing in developing countries, as thesefactors may help explain the current diversity in these patterns.

Keywords: fertility timing; fertility postponement; age at first birth; developing countries; Central Asia

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Michel Poulain, Estonian Institute for Population Studies, Tallinn University, Estonia, IACCHOS, Universit ́e catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
Dany Chambre, Gerontologist, Estaimpuis, Belgium
Pino Ledda, Genealogist, Seulo, Sardinia, Italy
Anne Herm, Estonian Institute for Population Studies, Tallinn University, Estonia

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 18, 2020, pages 215-236
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2020.res05

cite as:
Poulain, M., Chambre, D., Ledda, P., Herm, A. 2020. "Marital fertility decline and death of children in the Sardinian longevity Blue Zone" Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020 (Volume 18):215-236.

first online: 10.09.2020

Abstract:
Several authors have studied the late fertility transition in Sardinia, which did not start until the 1950s. This contribution aims to investigate the association between the decline in marital fertility and the fall in infant and child mortality. We use individual data to undertake classical family reconstruction starting from the mid-19th century for the population of two Sardinian villages, Villagrande Strisailliand Seulo, which we have previously studied for their remarkable longevity. Our results indicate that in this population, there were very few signs of fertility decline prior to 1920, and fertility decreased only gradually before 1950, but that the decline in fertility accelerated thereafter. We also found that infant and childmortality decreased slightly between the two world wars, and did not decline substantially until after the Second World War. The question arises as to whether these two transitions were associated, and, if they were, which one preceded the other. Our results suggest that there was some degree of synchronisation, with more pronounced changes beginning in the 1950s. We found that this association cannot simply be explained by a causal relationship based on altered demographic behaviour. Substantial socio-economic changes that began between the two world wars and developed fully in the 1950s might have caused both fertility and mortality declines within a traditional society that was undergoing a transition to adapt to the modern world.

Keywords: marital fertility; infant mortality; child mortality; demographic transition; family reconstruction; Sardinia; longevity blue zone

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Nicolò Cavalli, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, UK

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 18, 2020, pages 237-263
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2020.res06

cite as:
Cavalli, N. 2020. "Future Orientation and Fertility: Cross-national Evidence using Google Search" Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020 (Volume 18):237-263.

first online: 29.12.2020

Abstract:
Using digital traces to investigate demographic behaviours, I leverage in this paperaggregated web search data to develop a Future Orientation Index for 200 countriesand territories across the world. This index is expressed as the ratio of Googlesearch volumes for ‘next year’ (e.g., 2021) to search volumes for ‘current year’ (e.g.,2020), adjusted for country-level internet penetration rates. I show that countrieswith lower levels of future orientation also have higher levels of fertility. Fertilityrates decrease quickly as future orientation levels increase; but at the highest levelsof future orientation, this correlation flattens out. Theoretically, I reconstruct therole that varying degrees of future orientation might play in fertility decisions byincorporating advances in behavioural economics into a traditional quantity-qualityframework`a la Becker.Keywords:future orientation; total fertility rate; hyperbolic discounting; quantity-quality trade-off; digital trace data; Google trends; digital demography

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Kryštof Zeman (corresponding author), Vienna Institute of Demography (VID), Austrian Academy of Sciences, Wittgenstein Centre forDemography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna), Vienna, Austria
Tomáš Sobotka, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID), Austrian Academy of Sciences, Wittgenstein Centre forDemography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna), Vienna, Austria

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 18, 2020, pages 267-284
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2020.dat01

cite as:
Zeman, K., Sobotka, T. "Selected Wittgenstein Centre databases onfertility across time and space" Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020 (Volume 18): 267-284.

first online: 16.02.2021

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