This joint project with the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Rostock aims to analyse short- and longer-term consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on the trends in the number of births and fertility rates in high-income countries with good quality of vital statistics data.

We will focus on the following issues:

• Monitoring impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on monthly birth trends. This includes a creation of a new open access database of Short-Term Fertility Fluctuations (STFF database), embedded in the Human Fertility Database
• Analysing short-term impact of COVID-19 pandemic on birth trends, fertility level and timing
• Analysing longer-term consequences of COVID-19 pandemic and the ensuing economic disruptions and shocks on fertility
• Analysing joint impact of declining fertility, excess mortality and reduced migration on population trends, especially population decline and depopulation

We relate the indicators of pandemic severity, non-pharmaceutical interventions (e.g. reduced mobility, lockdowns and school closures), the vaccination drive, and their economic consequences to changes in birth and fertility rates. We consider short-term fertility shocks and estimate monthly trends in fertility rates across high-income countries. Furthermore, we study how longer-term fertility responses differ by age, birth order, education and migrant origin.

STFF Website
STFF Database + Visualisation Tool

Sobotka, T., Zeman, K., Jasilioniene, A., Winkler-Dworak, M., Brzozowska, Z., Alustiza-Galarza, A., Németh, L. and Jdanov, D. (2023), Pandemic Roller-Coaster? Birth Trends in Higher-Income Countries During the COVID-19 Pandemic. Population and Development Review. https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12544

Preprint: Sobotka, Tomas; Jasilioniene, Aiva; Zeman, Krystof; Winkler-Dworak, Maria; Brzozowska, Zuzanna; Galarza, Ainhoa Alustiza; Nemeth, laszlo; Jdanov, Dmitri (2022, August 22) From bust to boom? Birth and fertility responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. SocArXiv. DOI: https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/87acb

Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) 2022. European Demographic Datasheet 2022. Wittgenstein Centre (IIASA, VID/OEAW, University of Vienna), Vienna. Available at www.populationeurope.org

Preprint: Sobotka, T., Jasilioniene, A., Galarza, A. A., Zeman, K., Nemeth, L., & Jdanov, D. (2021, March 24). Baby bust in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic? First results from the new STFF data series. SocArXiv. DOI: https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/mvy62

„In manchen Ländern sind die Geburten­zahlen regelrecht abgestürzt“ - Interview with Tomáš Sobotka (21.4.2021, German language)