Consequences of COVID-19 pandemic for births and fertility trends
This joint project with the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Rostock aims to analyse short- and longer-term consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on the trends in the number of births and fertility rates in high-income countries with good quality of vital statistics data.
We will focus on the following issues:
Monitoring early impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on monthly birth trends. This includes a creation of a new open access database of Short-Term Fertility Fluctuations (STFF database), embedded in the Human Fertility Database
Analysing short-term impact of COVID-19 pandemic on birth trends, fertility level and timing
Analysing longer-term consequences of COVID-19 pandemic and the ensuing economic disruption on fertility
Analysing joint impact of declining fertility, excess mortality and reduced migration on population trends, especially population decline and depopulation
We will relate the indicators of pandemic severity, non-pharmaceutical interventions (e.g. reduced mobility, lockdowns and school closures) and their economic consequences to changes in birth and fertility rates. We will consider short-term fertility shocks and estimate monthly trends in fertility rates across high-income countries. Furthermore, we will study how longer-term fertility responses differ by age, birth order, education and migrant origin.