In a recent publication in the journal Human Reproduction Open, demographers Maria Winkler-Dworak, Kryštof Zeman and Tomáš Sobotka from the Austrian Academy of Sciences (ÖAW) examine the development of birth rates in 26 countries during the late phase of the coronavirus pandemic between November 2021 and October 2022.
The researchers used data from the Human Fertility Database, which is jointly operated by the Vienna Institute of Demography of the Austrian Academy of Sciences and the German Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, and compared the monthly birth rates per woman of childbearing age in 21 European countries, as well as in Israel, Canada, the USA, Japan and South Korea.
Birth rate also declining in Austria
"For these wealthy countries, we have reliable fertility rate estimates throughout the COVID pandemic, which we then adjusted for seasonal fluctuations to obtain comparable monthly values. The developments in the countries differ significantly in some cases, but there is still a visible trend: in the late phase of the pandemic between November 2021 and October 2022, fertility rates declined in almost all countries, including here in Austria," says Maria Winkler-Dworak from the Austrian Academy of Sciences. The total fertility rate in Austria dropped from 1.51 births per woman in November 2021 to 1.42 in October 2022.
In previous pandemics, birth rates often declined during the crisis but significantly rebounded afterward. "We know from studies on the Spanish flu, for example, that there was a sharp decline at the beginning of the outbreak, followed towards the end. This pattern is typical for such disruptions. During COVID, there was also a decline nine months after the outbreak in 2020. Our study shows that some regions experienced a mini-baby boom afterwards, though it occurred well before the end of the pandemic’s end and was much smaller in scale," says ÖAW demographer Tomáš Sobotka.
Inflation, vaccination programs, and COVID-19 policies
In order to identify potential causes for changes in birth rates, the researchers compiled data on the economic situation, political measures and vaccination programmes in the countries studied, revealing three factors that are statistically significant in relation to these fluctuations. "Economic uncertainty certainly plays a role. While the labour market has rebounded after the initial slump at the beginning of the pandemic, encouraging a rise in birth rates. However, inflation has also increased due to supply chain disruptions, which dampens the positive effect," explains Maria Winkler-Dworak.
Measures such as lockdowns and social distancing, implemented by policymakers to slow the spread of the pandemic, have also impacted birth rates. "Following the first wave of coronavirus and the subsequent lockdown, some countries experience a increase in birth rates in 2021. The political measures and remote work regulations allowed many people to spend more time at home, contributing to the mini boom nine months later", Tomáš Sobotka. However, once these measures were lifted, birth rates returned to their previous downward trend.
The third relevant factor highlighted by the study authors is the timing of the vaccination programmes in various countries, which coincided with a temporary drop in birth rates nine months later. "Given the widespread misinformation surrounding vaccinations, it is important to note that vaccination itself did not have a negative impact on birth rates. For instance, Portugal saw an increase in fertility rates during the first wave of vaccinations. However, the data suggests that many women chose to postpone their plans to their plans to have children for a short time until they were fully immunised," explains Maria Winkler-Dworak.
Reference:
Birth rate decline in the later phase of the COVID-19 pandemic: the role of policy interventions, vaccination programmes, and economic uncertainty, Maria Winkler-Dworak, Krystof Zeman, Tomas Sobotka, Human Reproduction Open, Issue 3, 2024
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/hropen/hoae052
Further inquiry:
Sven Hartwig
Head of Public Relations & Communication
Austrian Academy of Sciences
Dr Ignaz Seipel-Platz 2, 1010 Vienna
T +43 1 51581-1331
sven.hartwig(at)oeaw.ac.at
Scientific contact:
Maria Winkler-Dworak
Vienna Institute of Demography
Austrian Academy of Sciences
Dominikanerbastei 16, 1010 Vienna
T +43 1 51581-7709
maria.winkler-dworak(at)oeaw.ac.at