Wittgenstein Centre Conference 2018
3rd Human Fertility Database Symposium
Vienna, December 5 - 7, 2018
Papers and Presentations
Wednesday, 5 December 2018
Symposium Opening
Wolfgang Lutz | Wittgenstein Centre video
Dmitri A. Jdanov | MPIDR video
Tomas Sobotka| Wittgenstein Centre video
Keynote 1:
Mikko Myrskylä |MPIDR
Towards a deeper understanding of recent shifts in the development-fertility nexus
pdf | video (presentation) | video (discussion)
Keynote 2:
Francesco Billari| Bocconi University
Technological change, postponement, and over-30 fertility
pdf | video (presentation)
Session 1: Fertility transitions - a long view
chaired by Albert Esteve
David Shapiro and Andrew Hinde
Laggards in the global fertility transition
pdf | video (presentation)
Zafer Büyükkececi and Henriette Engelhardt
On the relation between fertility, development, and gender equality:A comparison of Western and MENA countries
pdf | video (presentation)
Michel Poulain, Dany Chambre, Pino Ledda and Anne Herm
Late fertility transition in Sardinia: Impact of the first and second demographic transitions
pdf | video (presentation)
Ivan Cipin, Krystof Zeman and Petra Medimurec
Cohort fertility, parity progression, and family size in former Yugoslav countries during the twentieth century
pdf | video (presentation)
Video of discussions after presentations of session 1
Session 2: Fertility timing, postponement, late motherhood
chaired by Aiva Jasilioniene
Katie L. Heap, Ann Berrington and Roger Ingham
Explaining the unexpected decline of teenage fertility in England: An ecological approach
pdf
Konstantin Kazenin and Vladimir Kozlov
Post-Soviet countries not experiencing the postponement transition: Does religious affiliation matter?
pdf | video (presentation) | video (discussion)
Ryohei Mogi and Michael del Mundo
Remaining childless or postponing first birth? Decomposition approach using HFD
pdf | video (presentation) | video (discussion)
Eva Beaujouan
Late motherhood across time and space
pdf | video (presentation)
Tomas Frejka, Tomas Sobotka and Krystof Zeman
Is childbearing postponement ending? An historical and cohort perspective
pdf | video (presentation)
Video of discussions after presentations of session 2
Tuesday, 6 December 2018
Keynote 3:
Melinda Mills| University of Oxford
The sociogenomics of sexual and reproductive behaviour
video (presentation) | video (discussion)
Session 3: Education and fertility
chaired by Alicia Adsera
Albert Esteve and Elizabeth Florez-Paredes
The stability paradox: Why expansion of women’s education has not delayed early childbearing in Latin America
pdf | video (presentation) | video (discussion)
Anna Matysiak and Daniele Vignoli
Are highly educated women more likely to give birth to the second child? Evidence from mixture-models
pdf | video (presentation) | video (discussion)
Karel Neels, Jonas Wood and Naomi Biegel
Contribution of increasing education, adverse economic conditions andfamily policies to variation in Belgian period fertility, 1960-2000
pdf | video (presentation) | video (discussion)
Jessica Nisen and contributing authors
Educational differences in cohort fertility across subnational regions in Europe
Session 4: Data, methods and forecasting
chaired by Eva Beaujouan
Francesco C. Billari, Nicolo Cavalli, Eric Qian and Ingmar Weber
Online footprints of family change: A study based on Twitter
pdf | video (presentation) | video (discussion)
W.H.M. James, Natalia Tejedor-Garavito, Alessandra Carioli et al.
Gridded birth and pregnancy datasets for Africa, Latin America and theCaribbean (and other low and middle income countries)
pdf | video (presentation) | video (discussion)
Joanne Ellison, Jonathan J. Forster and Erengul Dodd
Forecasting of cohort fertility under a hierarchical Bayesian approach
pdf | video (presentation) | video (discussion)
Michaela Potancokova and Guillaume Marois
Projecting future births in the EU28 with fertility differentialsreflecting women’s educational and migrant characteristics
pdf | video (presentation) | video (discussion)
Poster Session:
Naomi Biegel and Karel Neels:
Socio-economic differentials in the uptake of (in)formal childcare in Belgium and their effect on subsequent family formation.
Hilde Bras and Jeroen Smits:
Contexts of reproduction: Gender dynamics and fertility in sub-Saharan Africa
pdf
Mathieu Buelens:
The asset of subnational data studies to understand spatial differences in fertility timing pdf
Cinzia Castagnaro and Antonella Guarneri:
Transition to parenthood in Italy: a cohort perspective
Sehar Ezdi, Jani Erola, Elina Kilpi-Jakonen and Heta Pöyliö:
Fertility and childbearing under different family policy schemes pdf
Nataliya Foigt:
Use of fertility data in assessment of population health and the role of the MPIDR methods and database in the GBD international research project
Elena Kotyrlo:
Do commuting women have fewer children?
Mathias Lerch:
The rural-urban fertility gradient in developing regions
Zhuoyan Mao:
The barriers between fertility desire and second child intention in Beijing, China
Leen Marynissen, Karel Neels, Sarah Van de Velde and Jonas Wood:
Couples’ labour market preconditions in Belgium: the importance of gender
Sara Miccoli:
An empirical analysis of change in fertility across space and time in Italy
Natalie Nitsche and Erich Striessnig:
Living arrangements of children today and fertility rates tomorrow: A regional analysis across Europe
Eli Nomes, Andre Grow and Jan Van Bavel:
The mid-twentieth century baby boom and the diffusion of the two-child norm: an agent- based modelling approach
Bartosz Ogorek:
The determinants of fertility in Second Polish Republic. A Macro level analysis pdf
Karol Pastor:
Fertility by marital status in Slovakia
Julieta Perez-Amador and Theodore P. Gerber:
The paradoxical dynamic of educational gradients in teenage fertility among Mexican adolescents: A “positional good” role for education in demographic outcomes?
David Shapiro:
Frustrated fertility goals and women’s education in Sub-Saharan Africa
Round table 1: Data needs and data funding
chaired by Michel Poulain
Participants: Christos Bagavos (pdf), Diego Ramiro Farinas (pdf), Dmitri A. Jdanov (pdf), Melinda Mills
How should HFD project develop in the future?
How can it become more useful to its actual and potential users?
How to secure sustainable long-term financing of HFD and similar data projects?
How can high-quality data repositories “compete” with the "quick and dirty” data easily available online and covering the entire world?
Session 5: Child costs, economic conditions, migration and fertility
chaired by Anna Matysiak
Sonja Spitzer, Angela Greulich and Bernhard Hammer
The subjective costs of young children: A European comparison
pdf | video (presentation) | video (discussion)
Chiara Ludovica Comolli, Gunnar Andersson et al.
Childbearing during and after recessions in the Nordic countries
pdf | video (presentation) | video (discussion)
Christos Bagavos and Alexandra Tragaki
Are changes in births in Europe driven by immigration? Methodological insights and empirical evidences for the 2009–2016 period
pdf | video (presentation) | video (discussion)
Maia Sieverding and Caroline Krafft
Demographic change during forced migration: Comparing marriage and fertility among Syrian refugees in Jordan and the pre-conflict Syrian populations
pdf
Session 6: Gender revolution and fertility
chaired by Gerda Neyer
Tomas Frejka, Frances Goldscheider and Trude Lappegard
The two-part gender revolution, women’s second shift and changing cohort fertility
pdf | video (presentation) | video (discussion)
Nathalie Scholl and Inaki Permanyer
Gender inequality and fertility declines: A sub-national analysis for the contemporary developing world
pdf | video (presentation)
Friday, 7 December 2018
Keynote 4: Yen-hsin Alice Cheng | Academia Sinica
Ultra-low fertility in East Asia: "Babymaking machines" going on strike?
pdf | video (presentation) | video (discussion)
Session 7: Fertility in East and South-east Asia
chaired by Anne Goujon
Setsuya Fukuda and Tsugihiko Kato
Policy or male involvement? Revisiting female employment and marital fertility in Japan
pdf | video (presentation) | video (discussion)
Keita Suga
Ethnic differentials in effects of 1st marriage and marital fertilityon below-replacement fertility in Singapore, 1980–2015: A multistate lifetable analysis
pdf | video (presentation) | video (discussion)
Baochang Gu and Jiawei Hou
Why is China’s TFR so low? A decomposition analysis
pdf | video (presentation) | video (discussion)
Cuiling Zhang, Tomas Sobotka and Zuzanna Brzozowska
Shifts in second birth timing and quantum following changes in fertility limiting policies in Chinese provinces, 1984-2016
pdf | video (presentation) | video (discussion)
Session 8: Partnerships, unions, marriage and fertility
chaired by Karel Neels
Evgeny M. Andreev, Aiva Jasilioniene and Elena Churilova
Partnership context of first births in Russia: the enduring significance of marriage
pdf | video (presentation) | video (discussion)
Natalie Nitsche, Alessandra Trimarchi and Marika Jalovaara
Couples’ educational pairings, selection into parenthood, and second birth progressions
pdf | video (presentation) | video (discussion)
Round table 2: What is the most important factor likely to influence future fertility trends and why?
chaired by Tomas Sobotka
Participants: Alicia Adsera (pdf), Albert Esteve (pdf), Setsuya Fukuda (pdf), Wolfgang Lutz, Trude Lappegard
Closing