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Population and Climate Change: The Defining Relationship of the 21st Century  
Watch all the talks and posterflashes on our YOUTUBE channel https://youtube.com/@ViennaInstituteofDemography programme WIC Virtual booth call for papers (closed) Venue conference organisers contact Watch all the poster flashes on our YOUTUBE channel https://youtube.com/@ViennaInstituteofDemography The upcoming issue of the Vienna Yearbook of Population Research is dedicated to the topic of this conference. Submissions welcome! Follow us on Twitter: #WIC2022 Population and Climate Change: The Defining Relationship of the 21st Century Wittgenstein Centre Conference 2022 Vienna, Austria, 30.11. - 02.12.2022   The conference was held in a hybrid format. You can find talks and poster flashes on our YOUTUBE channel https://youtube.com/@ViennaInstituteofDemography Conference Venue & general information The conference will take place in the main building of the Austrian Academy of Sciences Dr. Ignaz Seipel-Platz 2, 1010 Vienna, Austria, as well as via zoom. The conference venue is centrally located and close to subway lines U1 („Schwedenplatz“ and „Stephansplatz“), U3 („Stephansplatz“ and „Stubentor“) and U4 („Schwedenplatz" and "Wien Mitte“). For your individual hotel booking we would like to make you aware of hotels with The Austrian Ecolabel. Agenda Wednesday, 30 November 2022 Conference Opening Session 1: Climate Change and Wellbeing Session Chairs: Sonja Spitzer, Anne Goujon Liliana Andriano The Effects of Heatwave on Birthweight in sub-Saharan Africa video on YOUTUBE   | short abstract  | slides   Risto Conte Keivabu, Francesca Zanasi Extreme Heat and Health in Old Age video on YOUTUBE  |  short abstract  |  extended abstract   |  slides   Jordan D. Klein, Anjarasoa Rasoanomenjanahary Climate Change and Health Transitions: Evidence from Antananarivo, Madagascar video on YOUTUBE  |  short abstract   |   slides   Elizabeth Fussell, Kate Burrows, Narayan Sastry Research Designs for the Study of Disaster Effects on Demographic and Health Outcomes video on YOUTUBE    | short abstract Poster Flash online: Daniela Arsenović, Stevan Savić, Dragan Milosević, Zorana Lužanin, Milena Kojić, Ivana Radić, Sanja Harhaji, Miodrag Arsić Seasonal Effect of Physiological Equivalent Temperature on Cardiovascular and Respiratory Hospital Admissions in Novi Sad (Serbia) video on YOUTUBE  | short abstract |  extended abstract   Johan Junkka, Maria Hiltunen   +++ WIC 2022 POSTER AWARD +++ Temperature and Seasonality Related Infectious Disease Mortality Among Infants. A Retrospective Time-Series Study of Sweden, 1868-1892 video on YOUTUBE   Session 2: Climate Change and Mortality Session Chairs: Risto Conte Keivabu, Andrea Tamburini Mikhail Maximenko, Sergey Timonin, Natalia Shartova Spatial Patterns of Excess Mortality Related to 2010 Heatwave in European Russia short abstract | slides   Dariya Ordanovich, Aurelio Tobias, Diego Ramiro-Fariñas The Burden of Heat-Related Mortality in Madrid: A 130 Years Journey video on YOUTUBE  |   short abstract   Dariya Ordanovich, Aurelio Tobias, Diego Ramiro Temporal Variation of the Temperature-Mortality Association in Spain: A Nationwide Analysis video on YOUTUBE  | short abstract | slides   Tamás Hajdu Climate Change and the Mortality of the Unborn video on Youtube  | short abstract | slides Keynote 1 Chairs: Shonali Pachauri, Jonas Peisker, Andrea Tamburini Kristie L. Ebi, The Center for Health and the Global Environment (CHanGE), University of Washington Climate Changes Health video on YOUTUBE short abstract Festive Event Thursday, 1 December 2022 Keynote 2 Chairs: Erich Striessnig, Jonas Peisker, Andrea Tamburini Leiwen Jiang, Population Council and Asian Demographic Research Institute Population, Urbanization, and Carbon Emissions – New Evidence from Empirical Studies Video on YOUTUBE Session 3: Differential Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity Session Chairs: Liliana Andriano, Raya Muttarak Nicolas Choquette-Levy, Dirgha Ghimire, Rajendra Ghimire, Indra Chaudhary, Dil CK, Michael Oppenheimer How Does Heterogeneity in Social and Informational Capital Affect Nepali Farmer Climate Risk Management? short abstract | extended abstract | slides   Michael Freiberger, Roman Hoffmann, Alexia Prskawetz   Modelling Disaster Risk: Assessing the Impact of Education on Risk Behavior short abstract | slides   Francesca Tosi, Livia Elisa Ortensi, Rosella Rettaroli Estimating the Relationship Between Extreme Climate Events and Early Female Marriage in Bangladesh  video on YOUTUBE  | short abstract | slides Alfredo Alessandrini, Alessandra Conte, Christoph Deuster, Daniela Ghio, Anne Goujon, Fabrizio Natale, Thomas Petroliagkis Exposure and Vulnerability to Climate Change and Disaster Displacement short abstract | paper   Maya Luetke, Kathryn Grace, Elizabeth Heger Boyle The Effect of Climate Shocks and Armed Conflict on Household Intimate Partner Violence in Burkina Faso and Kenya short abstract   Poster Flash online: Afeez Ayoade Adegbite, Adesanya Kehinde Kazeem, Lawal Olubanji Akanji, Agosu, Christopher Monday, Ajose Sunday Olumide Socio-Economic Determinants of Climate Change Vulnerability Impacts and Adaptive Capabilities of Residents of Riverine Communities in Nigeria video on YOUTUBE  | poster | short abstract | extended abstract   Viacheslav Lipatov, Nadira Mavlyanova Differential Vulnerability to Floods and Adaptive Capacity in Russia video on YOUTUBE   Adesanya Kehinde Kazeem, Adegbite Afeez Ayoade, Sebioniga-Lawal Monsurat Yetunde Spatial analysis of population densities, household emissions and climate change effects on Nigeria citizens video on YOUTUBE  | poster | short abstract | extended abstract Poster session onsite Session 4: Climate Change and Migration Session Chairs: Roman Hoffmann, Patrick Sakdapolrak Stefan Borsky, Alexander Marbler Rural Water Availability and the Growth of Cities short abstract | slides   Fabien Cottier, Wolfram Schlenker, Elisabeth Ilboudo Nébié, Richard Seager, Sonali McDermid, Michael J. Puma, Weston Anderson, Alex de Sherbinin, Andrew Reid Crop Price Variability, Environmental Change and Intra-Regional Migration in Africa short abstract   Katharine Donato, Amanda Carrico, Leslie Valentine, Carol Wilson, Kimberly Rogers, Laura Caron Erosion, Accretion and Migration in Bangladesh   Brian Thiede, Abbie Robinson, Clark Gray Climatic Variability and Internal Migration in Asia: Evidence from Integrated Census and Survey Microdata short abstract | slides | paper   Kathleen Hermans, Juliane Groth, Charlotte Wiederkehr, Patrick Sakdapolrak Reciprocal Linkages Between Environmental Change and Migration: Lessons from Ethiopia Video on youtube  | short abstract |  slides   Poster Flash online: Keiti Kondi, Stefanija Veljanoska Internal Migration as a Response to Soil Degradation: Evidence from Malawi video on YOUTUBE   Shuai Zhou, Guangqing Chi Migratory Responses to Environmental and Sociodemographic Factors in the United States: A Multi-Level Analysis, 2010 – 2020 video on YOUTUBE  | slides | short abstract   Silvia Pianta, Elina Brutschin, Valentina Bosetti Exploring demand-side mitigation: comparing historical dietary changes and IAM scenarios video on YOUTUBE  | poster Panel Discussion: Population and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Jan van Weeren, Stichting OverBevolking The Great Multiplier slides | short abstract | extended abstract Dean Spears, University of Texas at Austin The Effect of Population Size on Average Living Standards: Integrating Climate Damages with Endogenous Economic Growth? Emma Engström, Institute for Future Studies When Can Environmental Impact be Mitigated Through Changes in Population and Affluence? Comparing IPAT Models on Climate Change and Land-Use Change slides | short abstract Tobias Rüttenauer, University College London The Effect of Exposure to Extreme Weather Events on Climate Change Belief Does Not Translate Into Behavioural Changes slides | short abstract Lisa Thalheimer, United Nations University (UNU-EHS) Using an Integrated Attribution Model to Detect Anthropogenic Climate Change in Human Mobility slides   Moderation: Shonali Pachauri, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Wolfgang Lutz, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna) Friday, 2 December 2022 Keynote 3 Chairs: Raya Muttarak, Jonas Peisker, Andrea Tamburini Kathryn Grace, Minnesota Population Center, University of Minnesota, Twin Cities How to Examine Climate Change and Fertility   Session 5: Climate Change and Reproductive Behaviour Session Chairs: Elisabeth Fussel, Marie-Caroline Compans Steffen Peters, Erich Striessnig, Maria Rita Testa, Alessandra Trimarchi, Natalie Nitsche Too Worried about the Environment to Have Children? Or More Worried about the Environment Once One is a Parent? short abstract | slides   Gerda Neyer, Gunnar Andersson, Johan Dahlberg, Livia Oláh, Melker Jörhall Climate Change Concerns and Fertility Intentions   Nina Brooks, Cascade Tuholske, Kathryn McMahon, Kwaw Andam Climate Change, Extreme Heat, and Women’s Reproductive Health in Nigeria short abstract   Cǒme Cheritel, Roman Hoffmann, Raya Muttarak Climate Change Impacts on Fertility in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: An Analysis Based on Global Subnational Data short abstract   Risto Conte Keivabu, Marco Cozzani, Joshua Wilde Climate Change and Fertility short abstract | extended abstract | slides   Poster Flash online: Georgios Bampinas, Georgios Mavropoulos Does temperature affect fertility via the economy? Elaborating on the role of female labor supply and productivity video on YOUTUBE  | poster | short abstract | full paper   Natalie Blanton “Bringing Life into a Chaotic World”: A Qualitative Analysis at the Intersections of Gender, Race, Environmental Change and Childbearing video on YOUTUBE  | poster | short abstract Poster Award & Closing Ceremony   A special issue of the peer-reviewed Vienna Yearbook of Population Research will be dedicated to the topic of this conference. Authors will be invited to publish their presented papers in this platinum open-access journal. Conference Organisers at the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna): Roman Hoffmann (IIASA) Raya Muttarak (University of Bologna) Shonali Pachauri (IIASA) Jonas Peisker (IIASA) Erich Striessnig (University of Vienna) Andrea Tamburini (VID, Austrian Academy of Sciences) Contact: If you have any questions regarding the conference, please contact conference.vid(at)oeaw.ac.at This conference receives funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the action POPCLIMA “Population Dynamics under Global Climate Change” (grant agreement No 101002973).  
Forschungsberichte  
Occasional, non refereed research reports.  
Postersession  
Resilience Strategies and Environmentally Induced Migration in the Coastal Regions of Bangladesh: Existing Scenario and Post-Covid Implications on Livelihood and Food Security Mehdi Azam Macquarie University, Sydney Gregor C. Falk University of Education Freiburg Abstract: Bangladesh’s coastal region is extremely susceptible to climate change induced natural disasters and man-made interventions that alter the local ecosystem. This study explores and analyses various internal and external factors that have an impact environmental and socio-economic change and thereby people's displacement and migration. Based on field surveys and focus group discussions with local people, the study identifies that the shift of traditional land use patterns from rice farming to shrimp culture has generated substantial environmental and socioeconomic transformation and challenges to local resilience. Reduction of household resilience has shifted away vulnerable people to move outside their origin territory ranging from one week to a maximum of twenty-eight weeks. Data from empirical research with local people from 2011, a follow-up focus group discussions and interviews in 2022 and work experiences from climate change projects implemented in this region were used. Seasonal or temporary migration is a common practice to boost household cash and savings; considered as an alternative adaptive technique or coping method for vulnerable people when regular employment isn’t accessible. The study also finds that people have little understanding of whether such changes are linked to climate change. However, they believed that man-made interventions and traditional land use changes are the main causes of the displacement and migration; climate change exacerbates the already existing problems. The situation has further worsened because of the Covid-19-induced lockdown and restrictions since seasonal migrants had to return home from the city and other locations. The growing food insecurity and natural disasters have considerably worsened the socioeconomic conditions of the local population as a result of the lack of employment options. This has now significantly and continuously boosted migration. So far governance of migration has not been effectively mainstreamed in the current policy regimes and this presents a concern. The study recommends a new transformation of an integrated land use governance mechanism that can bring people back to the self-sustaining agriculture systems, create sustainable shrimp farming, and diversify their sources of income. full paper Generational Carbon Accounts: Decomposing the Carbon Footprint by Age to Assess the Impact of Age and Generation on Carbon Emissions Cǒme Cheritel Paris School of Economics, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Abstract: There is no broad scientific consensus on the impact of population dynamics such as population ageing on greenhouse gas emissions and consequently on global warming, due, in particular,  to the lack of studies considering the decomposition of the carbon footprint on the long term. This projects thus drafts a methodology for constructing age-specific carbon accounts, i.e. a decomposition of the carbon footprint by age. First, by estimating a household consumption model, I decompose a household's consumption by types of goods and by household members. Successively with an Input-Output analysis, I estimate the carbon footprint of each category of goods and services by age group and subsequently derive a decomposition of the carbon footprint of a given country by type of goods. The method proposed is highly flexible and can therefore be applied widely. Preliminary results are provided for France, Japan, South Korea and Mexico. Moreover, this project provide early estimates  of pseudo-panels of French Carbon footprint from household consumption spanning from 1979 to 2011. Unequal Exposure to Air Pollution: A Spatial Analysis of Vienna Ingrid Setz Vienna Institute of Demography (OeAW), Wittgenstein Centre (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna) Andreas Chmielowski University of Gothenburg Lu Meng University of Bayreuth Viktor Maus Vienna University of Economics and Business Lorenz Wimmer Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS) Abstract: Air pollution has a strong impact on the health and well-being of societies. According to the European Environment Agency, it represents the largest environmental health risk in Europe. Yet, empirical evidence shows that air pollution is neither homogeneously spread across space nor among population groups. In our analysis, we investigate the spatial relationship between NO2 exposure and the foreign minority share at a high spatial resolution in Vienna, Austria. We overcome data limitations of previous studies by combining a novel model-based data set on NO2 concentration and sociodemographic data on a 250-square meter grid in a spatial autoregressive model, controlling for contributing factors. Our results confirm a significant positive correlation between air pollution and the proportion of minorities for different spatial aggregation levels and model specifications. The findings provide evidence on the presence of environmental inequality in intra-urban spaces and emphasize the need to reduce such inequalities. A Unified Modelling Framework for Projecting Sectoral Greenhouse Gas Emissions Lukas Vashold Vienna University of Economics and Business Abstract: Effectively tackling climate change requires sound knowledge about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and their sources. Currently however, there is a lack of comprehensive, sectorally disaggregated projections for GHG emissions. Here, we project sectoral emissions for a global sample of countries and five main sectors in the horizon ranging until 2050 in a unified framework using Bayesian methods. We show that without concerted policy efforts global GHG emissions increase strongly but also highlight a number of important differences across countries and sectors. Emission increases in emerging economies are driven by strong output and population growth, with energy-related emissions accounting for most of the growth. Advanced economies are expected to reduce GHG emissions over the coming decades in the majority of sectors; transport emissions, however, are often still increasing. Our predictions align with projections from Integrated Assessment Models on a global level, but show some deviations on the regional level. The Energy Mix: Understanding People’s Diverging Energy Preferences in Belgium Hanne Dallenes, Robbe Geerts, Frédéric Vandermoere, Gerlinde Verbist University of Antwerp Abstract: In this study, we aim to enhance the understanding of the interconnectedness between energy transitions and social equality by examining how social characteristics determine the composition of individual’s preferred energy mix. Previous studies about energy preferences have been mainly limited to the exploration of preferences for one energy system in isolation. Hence, little is known about how various energy sources are combined into various energy mixes. Against this background, we use Belgian data from the European Social Survey (N=1766) to examine the diversity in preferred energy mixes among individuals. Specifically, a latent class analysis is conducted to cluster the Belgian respondents into meaningful groups related to their preferred energy mix. The results suggest that there are four groups regarding preferred energy mixes. The findings emphasize that a focus on energy mixes provides a more nuanced understanding of individuals’ energy preferences as it reveals several inconsistencies and trade-offs. More specifically, the results imply that while most of the Belgian respondents prefer a carbon free energy mix, many face structural barriers that prevent them from denouncing unsustainable energy sources such as fossil fuels. The findings highlight the importance of focusing on energy mixes from a conflict-based stance as it provides an excellent tool to uncover the injustices underlying an energy transition. The article concludes that energy policies cannot be successful without addressing the justice dimension of energy transitions. extended abstract Household Composition Effects on Electricity Consumption in the US and Brazil Augusto F. J. Schmidt, Roberto L. do Carmo University of Campinas Albert Esteve Universidad Autónoma de Barcelona Abstract: Solutions presented to combat climate change often call on individual changes on consumption. Environmental problems are associated with population growth, but such focus on the macro perspective has overshadowed other aspects of societal changes that also influence consumption. Demography, like no other social science, is equipped with exploring the tendencies to those complex problems. We look at energy consumption using data from the US (Residential Energy Consumption Survey - RECS) and Brazil (Brazilian Household Budget Survey - POF in Portuguese) to understand energy consumption and changes in household composition. Due to the effects of scale, those households with fewer members have higher per capita consumption. The process associated with the second demographic transition (SDT) in the two countries are at distinct stages. To investigate the effect of household size, age, gender and race, we apply decomposition techniques proposed by Kitagawa (1995) to discuss the effect of the composition of households. extended abstract Intersecting inequities in energy consumption, decent living standards and risk of climate change exposure in Ghana, India, and Brazil Setu Pelz, Shonali Pachauri, Caroline Zimm International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Highlights: We combine consumer expenditure microdata over two time periods from Brazil (2002/2017), Ghana (2005/2017) and India (2004/2011) with a spatial climate exposure dataset (SSP2, 1.5dC, 2030) We show that poorer households face either limited access to clean energy sources or unaffordable supply once this improves. We show that the same households are likely deprived of multiple dimensions of Decent Living Standards (DLS), highlighting heterogeneity across these. Our work then identifies intersecting inequities, both spatially and by income level, of climate change risk, DLS deprivation and energy unaffordability. Abstract: Literature linking residential energy consumption, human development and climate change risk is growing but is largely concentrated at the aggregate level. We combine consumer expenditure microdata for two time periods from Brazil (2002/2017), Ghana (2005/2017) and India (2004/2011) with a spatial climate exposure dataset (SSP2, 1.5dC, 2030) to identify intersecting inequities across the income distribution and across space. We first describe the dual challenge of energy access and affordability among poorer households and extend this analysis to include private mobility, identifying dramatic and consistent shifts towards private mobility fossil fuel consumption among the upper deciles. Second, we operationalize the decent living standards, a multi-dimensional measure of human wellbeing, across the income deciles. This highlights the strength of this framework in identifying deprivations among poorer households using standard publicly available microdata. Thirdly, we link achievement of decent living standards with climate risk, identifying both spatially and by income level an acutely vulnerable population requiring climate adaptation policy support. extended abstract Emissions and fertility loss in depopulation countries Klaus Prettner Vienna Institute of Demography, Vienna University of Economics and Business Alexia Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Vienna Institute of Demography, TU Wien Michael Kuhn, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Martina Siskova, Vienna Institute of Demography Vadim Kufenko, Universität Hohenheim, Stuttgart Abstract: In this paper we study the effect of decreasing fertility on carbon emissions in depopulation countries. The depopulation countries are currently experiencing both strong out-migration trends accompanied by significant losses in fertility. Hence, we expect emissions to be affected differently in countries experiencing depopulation compared to non-depopulation countries. There are various channels through which fertility impacts emissions, namely: the population size, the age structure of said population, as well as economic output. To analyze this issue empirically, we constructed a database from 1950 to 2015, in order to estimate the elasticities of emissions with respect to population as well as with respect to income per capita. Studies to date found that the elasticity with respect to population is much larger than the elasticity with respect to income per capita. However, we expect to find that the disparity between the two elasticities expands when restricting the database to the subsample consisting of depopulation countries only. Our contribution to the current literature lies not only in extending the available dataset and inclusion of more variables; but predominantly, in focusing on depopulation countries. For, these countries are of particular interest as they face a situation that is quite unique as it pertains to their economic and demographic structures.  Does an ageing society challenge the environment? Projected age-specific consumption for Germany and its ecological footprint Hannes Mangelsdorf, Luca Rebeggiani FOM University Jana Stöver Kiel University Christina Wilke FOM University Abstract: Population ageing and  keeping the impact economic activity within planetary boundaries are two of the main future challenges of today’s societies. To measure the pressure that we as human beings exert on nature, so-called material footprints can be used. These differ depending on individual consumption which again varies with age, reflecting an individual’s situation across the life cycle. Against this background, we combine data from three different sources, namely population projections, age-specific consumption profiles and footprint data, to derive material footprints by age group and consumption category for different population scenarios for Germany. The results from our paper will add empirical evidence on how population ageing is likely to affect pressure on the environment in Germany. Gender(ed) patterns during heat waves: Evidence from Austria Andrea E. Schmidt Felix Durstmüller Katharina Brugger Competence Centre for Climate and Health, Austrian National Public Health Institute Abstract: Background: Due to climate change, average temperatures are rising across Europe, which also has severe effects on the whole population. While men have higher incidence of heat strokes in Austrian hospitals, women tend to report higher perceived heat exposure and more concerns about climate change, also related to their family and relatives. Yet, research on the gender patterns underlying climate change adaptation is scarce. This study aims to address this gap. Objective: We aim to identify gender-related differences in perceived heat exposure in Austria. We hypothesise that family situation and housing conditions are gendered determinants of subjective heat exposure. Data and methods: We estimate an binomial logistic regression model from the Austrian microcensus data 2019 on environmental behaviour and environmental conditions. Our dependent variable is perceived heat exposure (low/medium vs. high). Results: Our results show heterogeneous findings for men and women, with women overall displaying family situation to be a determinant of perceived heat exposure, while for men housing conditions significantly determine perceived heat exposure. Further influencing factors are the highest educational attainment (for men) and the degree of urbanisation of one’s place of living. Conclusions: More research is needed to understand gendered patterns of climate change adaptation and draw conclusions on gender-specific measures (e.g. targeted heat action plans) for men, women, and families in the context of climate change. The role of remote sensing data in mitigation of the impact of establishment and development of refugee camps on the natural environment - examples from Bangladesh and Tanzania Karolina Sobczak-Szelc, Dominik Wach, Magdalena Chułek Centre of Migration Research University of Warsaw Jörg Haarpaintner, Astrid Espegren NORCE -  Climate and Environment and Health & Social Sciences , Norwegian Research Centre AS Ewa Gromny, Małgorzata Jenerowicz-Sanikowska, Sebastian Aleksandrowicz Space Research Centre of the Polish Academy of Sciences Abstract: The construction and operation of the forced migrants’ settlements have a significant impact on the surrounding natural environment. Issues such as the construction and organisation of such mass refugee settlements, the relations between people living in these camps, and the natural environment seem to be crucial and can impact changes in the local and regional environment. In many countries of the Global South, like Bangladesh or Tanzania, forced migrants living in refugee settlements have limited access to basic resources and rely on humanitarian support. Lack of drinking water, food, or firewood forces them to seek these assets in the surrounding area, which can lead to the degradation of the natural environment and conflicts with the local communities.   The aim of this article is to present the most essential forms of refugee activities that can stimulate changes in the natural environment. The research was conducted within the ARICA A multi-directional analysis of refugee/IDP camp areas based on HR/VHR satellite data project in the Kutupalong-Balukhali camp in Bangladesh and the Mtendeli camp in Tanzania. The results are based on a combination of remote sensing data and social qualitative data. More specifically we have carried out a literature review, conducted focus groups and in-depth interviews with experts and local actors as well as in-depth interviews with camp inhabitants and, combined this with satellite data analysis. The results show the strong influence of the establishment and development of the camp on the changes in the environment. Through investigation of camp inhabitants' and members of the host society’s perception and use of the environment within the camp area and in the surroundings of the camp, and how this has changed over time, we will develop recommendations for future camp management. extended abstract Assessing future vulnerabilities: a machine learning approach to multi-dimensional population projections at the sub-national level Andrea Tamburini Vienna Institute of Demography (OeAW), Wittgenstein Centre (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna) Abstract: Improving our understanding of future risk from climate change requires realistic projections of future populations, both in their size and distribution. Distribution can refer to the geographic breakdown, as well as the breakdown by important characteristics, such as age, sex or educational attainment. While where people will live determines exposure to hazards, population characteristics co-determine the degree of vulnerability and capability to adapt to changing environmental conditions. Despite the importance of these factors, there remains a paucity of population projections (or disaggregations thereof) at the sub-national level. We develop a machine learning-based model to produce age-, sex- and education-specific population projections at the sub-national NUTS-2 level for 34 European countries based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Our focus on Europe is indicated by the high degree of spatial variability, both in terms of climatic conditions and population structure, as well as the rapid pace of climate change there. Modelling international migration by means of stochastic evolution Karim Zantout Jacob Schewe Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany Abstract: International migration is a complex human phenomenon with multifaceted determinants that make it difficult to identify precise mechanisms. In addition, the lack of consistent highresolution data poses another dimension of uncertainty. Nevertheless, there is a need for self-consistent, dynamic models of international migration, since climate change is considered to have an impact on migration [1, 2] and well-founded projections are essential for developing adaptation and mitigation strategies. Here, we present a new model for international migration forecasts that is based on discrete time stochastic evolution. This approach combines the strengths of proper population flow accounting in terms of evolution equations while incorporating determinants of migration in stochastic parameters. More precisely, we combine the deterministic element of evolution equations with non-deterministic effects for those variables that are typically difficult to assess or to measure. Apart from direct migration flows between origin and destination countries we discuss the effect of assimilation, transit migration and return migration. Consequently, the model contains not only dynamics at different time scales but also geographical, economic, demographic, social, and political dependencies. As a proof of concept, we study model systems and compare to the commonly used Gravity Model [3, 4] pointing at crucial differences between the two formalisms. The importance of time dynamics for future projections is highlighted and possible pathways for including Climate Change effects are presented. extended abstract  
! Online now: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2022  
All articles of the VYPR 2022 on "Demographic Aspects of the COVID-19 Pandemic and its Consequences" are available online now!  
VID at PAA2023  
 
Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2022  
Special issue on: Demographic Aspects of the COVID-19 Pandemic and its Consequences (Vol. 20) Guest editors: Paola Di Giulio, Anne Goujon, Guillaume Marois and Joshua Goldstein Managing editor: Maria Winkler-Dworak Introduction The population aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic in 20 papers: an introduction Paola Di Giulio, Anne Goujon, Guillaume Marois Full text | Details Perspectives Aspects of a sociology of the pandemic: Inequalities and the life course Karl Ulrich Mayer Full text | Details COVID-19, the Russo-Ukrainian War, the global sustainable development project and post-crises demography F. Landis Mac Kellar Full text | Details Research Articles Effects of income inequality on COVID-19 infections and deaths during the first wave of the pandemic: Evidence from European countries David Sanchez Paez   Full text | Details Assessing the generational impact of COVID-19 using National Transfer Accounts (NTAs) Miguel Sanchez-Romero  Full text | Details | supplementary material | Summary of NTA country profiles The mathematics of the reproduction number R for Covid-19: A primer for demographers Luis Rosero-Bixby, Tim Miller Full text | Details | Data Set (Excel)  |   Data Set (DTA) Pitfalls and solutions in case fatality risk estimation – A multi-country analysis on the effects of demographics, surveillance, time lags between case reports and deaths and healthcare system capacity on COVID-19 CFR estimates Patrizio Vanella, Christian Wiessner, Anja Holz,Gérard Krause, Annika Möhl, Sarah Wiegel, Berit Lange, Heiko Becher Full text  | Details COVID-19 and relationship quality: Emotional, paid work and organizational spheres Daniela Bellani, Daniele Vignoli Full text | Details Narratives of the future and fertility decision-making in uncertain times. An application to the COVID-19 pandemic Raffaele Guetto,Giacomo Bazzani,Daniele Vignoli,  Full text | Details Cognitive schemas and fertility motivations in the U.S. during the COVID-19 pandemic Wendy D. Manning, Karen Benjamin Guzzo, Monica A. Longmore, Peggy C. Giordano  Full Text | Details Human costs of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in the major epicenters in Italy Simone Ghislandi, Raya Muttarak, Markus Sauerberg, Benedetta Scotti Full text | Details Excess mortality and COVID-19 in Sweden in 2020: A demographic account Martin Kolk,  Sven Drefahl,  Matthew Wallace,  Gunnar Andersson Full text | Details | Mortality by sex, age and country 2017-2020 Regional COVID-19 mortality in Brazil by age Emerson A. Baptista, Bernardo L. Queiroz, Everton E. C. Lima Full text | Details Are homicides and robberies associated with mortality due to COVID-19? Lessons from Urban Mexico Claudia Masferrer, Oscar Rodríguez Chávez Full text | Details Data & Trends Assessing excess mortality in Vienna and Austria after the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic Ramon Bauer, Markus Speringer, Peter Frühwirt, Roman Seidl, Franz Trautinger Full text | Details COVID-19 in Hong Kong: Policies and community actions mitigate the effects of age structure and population density Zilin Li, Stuart A. Gietel-Basten, Rachel Ganly, Christian Joy Pattawi Cruz Full text | Details Rapid changes in birth counts in Brazilian major cities during the COVID-19 pandemic Everton E. C. Lima, Camila F. Soares, José H.C. Monteiro da Silva Full text | Details Pregnancies and contraceptive use in four African countries during the COVID-19 pandemic Andreas Backhaus Full text | Details Exploring psychological vulnerability and responses to the COVID-19 lockdown in Greece Lydia Xourafi, Polyxeni Sardi, Anastasia Kostaki Full text | Details |  Supplementary Material Why did care home residents face an elevated risk of death from COVID-19? A demographic perspective using data from Belgium and from England and Wales Nicole Mun Sim Lai Full text | Details Comparing the loss of life expectancy at birth during the 2020 and 1918 pandemics in six European countries Valentin Rousson,  Fred Paccaud, Isabella Locatelli Full text | Details |  supplementary material Details & Abstracts Introduction The population aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic in 20 papers: an introduction Paola Di Giulio, Vienna Institute of Demography (OeAW), Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna), Vienna, Austria Anne Goujon, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna), Vienna, Austria Guillaume Marois, Asian Demographic Research Institute, Shanghai University, Shanghai, China Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Volume: 20, 2022, pages (tbd - online-first) Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2022.int01 cite as: Di Giulio, P., Goujon, A., Marois, G. (2022). The population aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic in 20 papers: an introduction. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 20. https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.int01 first online: 13.12.2022 Abstract: The introduction to the 2022 Special Issue presents the 20 articles that discuss the demographic aspects and the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. It synthesises the main findings from the contributions, emphasising the demographic, social and economic characteristics that influenced the spread of infections and determined the number of deaths. We highlight the specific focus on measurement issues, often with a comparative framework across several countries, and at the regional level as well, both within and beyond Europe. We also summarise the impact of the measures imposed to contain the spread of the virus, such as lockdowns. Moreover, we explore the impact of the pandemic on the quality of relationships, the intention and the motivation to have children, and realised fertility. In addition, we present the authors’ broader reflections on the risks faced by different communities of individuals, and the potential consequences for their life trajectories, including in relation to other current risks that overlap with the pandemic (recent armed conflicts), and for the achievability of the Sustainable Development Goals themselves. Keywords: COVID-19; demographic impact; mortality, infections; fertility; eco-nomic impact; social impact PDF Perspectives Aspects of a sociology of the pandemic: Inequalities and the life course Karl Ulrich Mayer, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin, Germany, and Yale University, New Haven,USA Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Volume: 20, 2022, pages (tbd - online-first) Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2022.per01 cite as: Mayer, K. U. (2022). Aspects of a sociology of the pandemic: Inequalities and the life course. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 20. https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.per01 first online: 28.07.2022 Abstract: Over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, the contributions of the social sciences to discussions about pandemic management have become more visible and more significant. In this essay, I review major aspects of a sociology of the pandemic. After providing an overview of the potential contributions of the different fields of sociology (the “toolbox” of sociology), I discuss two main domains: first, social inequalities and how they relate to the process of the spread of COVID-19 from exposure and infection, and to the consequences of the pandemic in the wider population; and, second, the potential long-term effects of the pandemic on the life course. Keywords: COVID-19; pandemic; social inequality; life course; social networks; social norms PDF COVID-19, the Russo-Ukrainian War, the global sustainable development project and post-crises demography F. Landis MacKellar, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Volume: 20, 2022, pages (tbd - online-first) Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2022.per02 cite as: MacKellar, F. L., (2022). COVID-19, the Russo-Ukrainian War, the global sustainable development project and post-crises demography. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 20. https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.per02 first online: 13.12.2022 Abstract: The global sustainable development project as currently conceived is foundering, and the twin crises of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russo-Ukrainian War have driven a stake through its heart. Some of the reasons for this failure are fundamental design flaws, while others are practical. The resources to bring the project – or its successor, and any other global sustainable development project of similar design and ambition that might emerge – to a successful conclusion do not exist, and never did. What lessons are we learning, and how can they inform post-2030 sustainable development goals? In this essay, the effects of the catastrophes of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the global sustainable development project are enumerated, SDG by SDG, with special attention being paid to the implications for demography. In closing, recommendations for reforms of the project are presented, as are some suggestions for the field of demography in the changed global context. The most concrete, feasible immediate recommendations are to make up recently lost ground, specifically in the areas of vaccination and education; and to reform the profoundly flawed international asylum and refugee system. Keywords: sustainable development; COVID-19; Russian invasion of Ukraine; demography PDF Research Articles Effects of income inequality on COVID-19 infections and deaths during the first wave of the pandemic: Evidence from European countries David A. Sánchez-Páez, Centre for Demographic Research (DEMO), Université Catholique de Louvain. Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Volume: 20, 2022, pages (tbd - online-first) Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res1.1 cite as: Sánchez-Páez, D. (2021). Effects of income inequality on COVID-19 infections and deaths during the first wave of the pandemic: Evidence from European countries. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 20. https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res1.1 first online: 03.08.2021 Abstract: Evidence from research on infectious diseases suggests that income inequality is related to higher rates of infection and death in disadvantaged population groups. Our objective is to examine whether there was an association between income inequality and the numbers of cases and deaths during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in European countries. We determined the duration of the first wave by first smoothing the number of daily cases, and then using a LOESS regression to fit the smoothed trend. Next, we estimated quasi-Poisson regressions. Results from the bivariate models suggest there was a moderate positive association between the Gini index values and the cumulated number of infections and deaths during the first wave, although the statistical significance of this association disappeared when controls were included. Results from multivariate models suggest that higher numbers of infections and deaths from COVID-19 were associated with countries having more essential workers, larger elderly populations and lower health carecapacities. Keywords: COVID-19; income inequality; first wave; European countries PDF Assessing the generational impact of COVID-19 using National Transfer Accounts (NTAs) Miguel Sánchez-Romero Vienna Institute of Demography (OeAW), Wittgenstein Centre of Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna), Vienna, Austria and International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Volume: 20, 2022, pages (tbd - online-first) Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res1.2 cite as: Sánchez-Romero, M. (2022). Assessing the generational impact of COVID-19 using National Transfer Accounts (NTAs). Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 20. https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res1.2 first online: 25.01.2022 Abstract: An important aspect of the current COVID-19 crisis is that not all age groups are equally affected by the pandemic. To account for the generational impact of COVID-19, a dynamic overlapping generations model with realistic demography, human capital and NTAs is constructed. The COVID-19 crisis is modelled through two unexpected and temporary negative shocks: an economic shock that reduces labour income, and a demographic shock that increases the mortality hazard rates of those infected. The model is applied to 12 countries for which full NTA data are available. Results are presented for two extreme fiscal policies: one in which governments compensate workers for 0% (without fiscal support) of their total labour income losses due to the pandemic, and another in which governments compensate workers for 100% (with fiscal support) of these losses. In addition, I analyse the impact of these policies on public debt. The results show that COVID-19 is affecting the financial situations of people aged 25 to 64 and their children more than those of older people. By compensating workers for their income losses, the economic impact of COVID-19 has been more evenly distributed across cohorts, reducing the burden on people aged zero to 64, and increasing the burden on people aged 65 and older. Moreover, the simulation results show that a 1% decline in labour income leads to an average increase in the debt-to-total labour income ratio of between 1.2% (without fiscal policy) and 1.6% (with fiscal policy). Keywords: COVID-19; National Transfer Accounts; overlapping generations; lifecycle model, generational accounts; debt PDF Supplementary files:  supplementary material | Summary of NTA country profiles The mathematics of the reproduction number R for Covid-19: A primer for demographers Luis Rosero-Bixby (corresponding author), University of Costa Rica, San Pedro, SJ, Costa Rica Tim Miller, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nation Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Volume: 20, 2022, pages (tbd - online-first) Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res1.3 cite as: Rosero-Bixby,L. and Miller, T. (2021).Demographic aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic and its consequences. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 20. https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res1.3 first online: 15.12.2021 Abstract: The reproduction number R is a key indicator used to monitor the dynamics of Covid-19 and to assess the effects of infection control strategies that frequently have high social and economic costs. Despite having an analog in demography’s “net reproduction rate” that has been routinely computed for a century, demographers may not be familiar with the concept and measurement of R in the context of Covid-19. This article is intended to be a primer for understanding and estimating R in demography. We show that R can be estimated as a ratio between the numbers of new cases today divided by the weighted average of cases in previous days. We present two alternative derivations for these weights based on how risks have changed over time: constant vs. exponential decay. We then provide estimates of these weights, and demonstrate their use in calculating R to trace the course of the first pandemic year in 53 countries. PDF Supplementary Files:  Data Set (Excel)  |   Data Set (DTA) Pitfalls and solutions in case fatality risk estimation – A multi-country analysis on the effects of demographics, surveillance, time lags between case reports and deaths and healthcare system capacity on COVID-19 CFR estimates Patrizio Vanella* (corresponding author), Department of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research (HZI), Brunswick, Germany and Chair of Empirical Methods in Social Science and Demography, University of Rostock Germany Christian Wiessner*, Institute of Medical Biometry and Epidemiology, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf (UKE), Hamburg, Germany Anja Holz ***, Institute of Medical Biometry and Epidemiology, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf (UKE), Hamburg, Germany Gérard Krause***, Department of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research (HZI), Brunswick, Germany and German Center for Infection Research (DZIF), Brunswick, German Annika Möhl***, Institute of Medical Biometry and Epidemiology, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf (UKE), Hamburg, Germany Sarah Wiegel ***, Institute of Medical Biometry and Epidemiology, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf (UKE), Hamburg, Germany Berit Lange**, Department of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research (HZI), Brunswick, Germany and German Center for Infection Research (DZIF), Brunswick, German Heiko Becher**,  Institute of Medical Biometry and Epidemiology, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf (UKE), Hamburg, Germany * Shared first authors ** Shared last authors *** In alphabetical order Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Volume: 20, 2022, pages (tbd - online-first) Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res1.4 cite as: Vanella, P., Wiessner, C., Holz, A., Krause, G., Möhl, A., Wiegel, S., Lange, B. and Becher, H. (2022). Pitfalls and solutions in case fatality risk estimation – A multi-country analysis on the effects of demographics, surveillance, time lags between case reports and deaths and healthcare system capacity on COVID-19 CFR estimates. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 20. doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res1.4 first online: 15.2.2022 Abstract: Across European countries, there have been large differences in COVID-19 case fatality risk (CFR) estimates, and considerable variation in these estimates over time. CFR estimates vary depending on both the method used for estimation and country-specific characteristics. While crude methods simply use cumulative total numbers of cases and deaths, the CFR can be influenced by the demographic characteristics of the cases, the case detection rates, the time lags between the reporting of infections and deaths and infrastructure characteristics, such as healthcare capacities. We use publicly available weekly data for 11 European countries on the COVID-19 case and death numbers by age group for the year 2020. Moreover, we use data on national weekly test rates to adjust the case numbers, and to investigate the effects of different time lags between the reporting of cases and deaths on the estimation of CFRs. Finally, we describe the association between case fatality rates and the demand for hospital and intensive care unit beds for COVID-19 cases, while taking into account national bed capacities. The crude CFR estimates differ considerably across the investigated countries. In the crude international CFR time series, the differences are smaller when adjusting for the demographics of the cases. Differences in testing policies significantly affect the CFR estimates as well. However, the question of precisely how these testing procedures should be adjusted requires further investigation. Lag adjustments of CFRs do not lead to improvements in estimates of COVID-19 CFRs, and no connection between hospital capacities and CFRs can be found for the countries included in our study. Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic; epidemiological surveillance; case fatality risk; demographics; vulnerable populations; testing policy; healthcare; public health PDF COVID-19 and relationship quality: Emotional, paid work and organizational spheres Daniela Bellani, (corresponding author) Department of Political and Social Sciences, Scuola Normale Superiore, Florence, Italy Daniele Vignoli, Department of Statistics, Computer Science, Applications “G. Parenti”, University of Florence, Florence, Italy Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Volume: 20, 2022, pages (tbd - online-first) Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res1.5 cite as: Bellani, D., Vignoli, D. (2022)  COVID-19 and relationship quality: Emotional, paid work and organizational spheres Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 20. https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res1.5 first online: 16.03.2022 Abstract: This study contributes to the growing literature on the repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic for family functioning, with a special focus on couples’ relationship quality. We advance an analytical model that emphasizes the role of three main stressors of relationship quality during the pandemic: namely, emotional, paid work-related and organizational stressors. To outline such an approach, we analyze whether the onset of the pandemic – and the home confinement that followed – has reduced relationship quality in France, Italy and Spain using survey data collected in April 2020. We show that relationship quality decreased for a non-negligible part of the population, and that this result was driven mostly by the emotional stressor. These negative effects on relationship quality appeared to be relatively stable across genders, different levels of network support and countries; which suggests that the severity of the lockdown measures outweighed the traditional moderating factors usually accounted for in family research. Keywords: relationship quality; COVID-19; emotions; paid work; organizational issues PDF Narratives of the future and fertility decision-making in uncertain times. An application to the COVID-19 pandemic Raffaele Guetto (corresponding author), University of Florence, Italy Giacomo Bazzani, University of Florence, Italy Daniele Vignoli, University of Florence, Italy Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Volume: 20, 2022, pages (tbd - online-first) Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res1.6 cite as: Guetto, R., Bazzani, G. and Vignoli, D.  (2022) Narratives of the future and fertility decision-making in uncertain times. An application to the COVID-19 pandemic. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 20. https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res1.6 first online: 15.02.2022 Abstract: The sociological and demographic literatures have widely demonstrated that fertility decisions are shaped by individuals’ previous life experiences and socioeconomic status – i.e., the “shadow of the  past.” However, rising uncertainty in contemporary societies necessitates an analytical framework that acknowledges the influence of the future in the fertility decision-making process. Based on the  Narrative Framework, we argue that personal narratives of the future, and their constitutive elements of expectations and imaginaries – i.e., the “shadow of the future” – represent crucial drivers of  fertility intentions under conditions of uncertainty. Our arguments are tested empirically by exploiting the exogenous uncertainty shock provided by the COVID-19 pandemic, and unique data we  collected during the Italian lockdown. Results suggest that, because of COVID-induced uncertainty, subjective perceptions and personal narratives of the future – also shaped by media “shared  narratives” – gained the upper hand over the shadow of the past in influencing fertility intentions. In addition, we provide evidence of a causal impact of shared narratives of the future on fertility intentions through an online experiment simulating a “real” exposure of the respondents to a new media narrative on the expected length of the emergency. PDF Cognitive schemas and fertility motivations in the U.S. during the COVID-19 pandemic Wendy D. Manning, Department of Sociology, Center for Family and Demographic Research, Bowling Green State University, Bowling Green, OH, USA Karen Benjamin Guzzo Department of Sociology, Center for Family and Demographic Research, Bowling Green State University, Bowling Green, OH, USA Monica A. Longmore, Department of Sociology, Center for Family and Demographic Research, Bowling Green State University, Bowling Green, OH, USA Peggy C. Giordano, Department of Sociology, Center for Family and Demographic Research, Bowling Green State University, Bowling Green, OH, USA Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Volume: 20, 2022, pages (tbd - online-first) Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res1.7 cite as: Manning, W. D., Guzzo, K.B., Longmore, M. A., Giordano, P. C. (2022)  Cognitive schemas and fertility motivations in the U.S. during the COVID-19 pandemic Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 20. https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res1.7 first online: 12.4.2022 Abstract: While current evidence indicates that the United States did not experience a baby boom during the pandemic, few empirical studies have considered the underlying rationale for the American baby bust. Relying on data collected during the pandemic (n = 574), we find that pandemic-related subjective assessments (e.g., self-reported stress, fear of COVID-19 and relationship struggles) and not economic indicators (e.g., employment status, income level) were related to levels of fertility motivations among individuals in relationships. Analysis of within-person changes in fertility motivations shows that shifts in the number of children, increases in mental health issues and increases in relationship uncertainty, rather than changes in economic circumstances, were associated with short-term assessments of the importance of avoiding a pregnancy. We argue for broadening conceptual frameworks of fertility motivations by moving beyond a focus on economic factors to include a cognitive schema that takes subjective concerns into account. Keywords: pandemic; fertility expectations; subjective appraisals PDF Human costs of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in the major epicenters in Italy Simone Ghislandi, Department of Social and Political Sciences, Bocconi University, Milan, Italy Raya Muttarak, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna), Schlossplatz, Laxenburg, Austria Markus Sauerberg, Vienna Institute of Demography (OeAW), Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna), Vienna, Austria Benedetta Scotti, Department of Social and Political Sciences, Bocconi University, Milan, Italy Authors are listed in alphabetical order Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Volume: 20, 2022, pages (tbd - online-first) Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res2.1 cite as: Ghislandi, S., Muttarak, R., Sauerberg, M, and Scotti, B. (2021). Human costs of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in the major epicenters in Italy. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 20. https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res2.1 first online: 21.07.2021 Abstract: Deaths from COVID-19 can be miscounted due to under-reporting and inaccurate death registration. Mortality is often reported at the national level, which can result in the underestimation of the true scale of the impact of the pandemic since outbreaks tend to be localised. This study exploits all-cause daily death registration data provided by the Italian Statistical Office (ISTAT) from 1 January to 31 October to estimate the excess mortality and the corresponding changes in life expectancy during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Focusing on the five most severely hit provinces in Italy (Bergamo, Brescia, Cremona, Lodi and Piacenza), we calculate the excess mortality in 2020 compared to the average mortality of the years 2015 to 2019. Moreover, we estimate the excess mortality in the first quadrimester of 2020, and the annual life expectancy at birth. The estimated excess deaths show that during this period, mortality was significantly higher than the official mortality statistics for COVID-19. According to our estimates for the first quadrimester, life expectancy in the five provinces declined by 5.4 to 8.1 for men and by 4.1 to 5.8 years for women. In addition, we find that annual life expectancy decreased by 2.4 to 4.1 years for men and by 1.9 to 2.8 years for women compared to the 2015–2019 average. Thus, we conclude that the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic had a substantial impact on population health in the hardest hit areas in Italy. PDF Excess mortality and COVID-19 in Sweden in 2020: A demographic account Martin Kolk , Demography Unit, Department of Sociology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden, Institute for Future Studies, Stockholm, Sweden, Åbo Akademi, Vasa, Finland Sven Drefahl , Demography Unit, Department of Sociology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden Matthew Wallace, Demography Unit, Department of Sociology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden Gunnar Andersson, Demography Unit, Department of Sociology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Volume: 20, 2022, pages (tbd - online-first) Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res2.2 cite as: Kolk, M., Drefahl, S., Wallace, M. and Andersson, G. (2021). Excess mortality and COVID-19 in Sweden in 2020: A demographic account. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 20. https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res2.2 first online: 27.01.2022 Abstract: In this study, we provide an account of mortality levels in Sweden in 2020, focusing on both excess mortality and mortality due to COVID-19 deaths. We present various measures of life expectancy for women and men based on age-specific death rates in 2020. Our measures of excess mortality are based on comparisons with benchmarks derived from a previous mortality forecast for 2020 by Statistics Sweden and observed average mortality rates during 2017–2019. We present data on regional and seasonal variation in excess mortality, as well as estimates of Years of Potential Life Lost due to COVID-19. We decompose excess mortality in 2020 into excess mortality due to COVID-19 and excess mortality attributable to other causes. We also provide some estimates on the impact of excess mortality in 2020 on the remaining life expectancy for different cohorts of women and men in Sweden. We demonstrate that the impact of COVID-19 mortality was concentrated at higher ages, and among men in particular. Conversely, some younger age groups experienced negative excess mortality. The mortality changes during 2020 caused life expectancy levels to revert back to those observed in 2018 for women and in 2017 for men. Keywords: excess mortality; mortality; life expectancy; COVID-19; Sweden PDF Supplementary file:  Mortality by sex, age and country 2017-2020 Regional COVID-19 mortality in Brazil by age Emerson A. Baptista (corresponding author), Center for Demographic, Urban and Environmental Studies (CEDUA), El Colegio de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico Bernardo L. Queiroz, Department of Demography, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG), Belo Horizonte, Brazil Everton E. C. Lima, College of Philosophy and Human Sciences (IFCH), University of Campinas (UNICAMP), Campinas, Brazil Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Volume: 20, 2022, pages (tbd - online-first) Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res2.3 cite as: Baptista, E. A., Queiroz, B., Lima E. E. C. (2022). Regional COVID-19 mortality in Brazil by age. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 20. https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res2.3 first online: 16.03.2022 Abstract: In this study, we use ternary color-coding to visualize and compare the age structure of deaths from COVID-19 in Brazilian meso-regions using the tricolore package in R, in two different phases of the pandemic. The analysis of the age profile is important to better understand the dynamics of the pandemic, and how it has affected the population over age 25, according to age groups (25–59, 60–79 and >80 years) and subpopulations of the country. The analysis focuses on the first wave of the pandemic, until the end of 2020, and the more recent wave. Overall, the results suggest that when the two recent waves of the  pandemic are compared, different spatial patterns in the distribution of deaths across the country by sex and by age emerge. While the distribution of deaths is found to be concentrated at older ages, we also observe in the more recent period some areas of the country with a concentration of deaths among younger adults. The analysis further indicates that even in areas with a younger population age structure, which could act as a protective factor against complications, the age pattern of mortality is very heterogeneous, and we do not find a clearly defined age and spatial pattern. Our results highlight the importance of looking at the distribution of COVID-19 mortality across small areas, and show that there are many different levels of the pandemic in Brazil at the same time, rather than just one. Keywords: COVID-19; mortality; age structure; ternary color-coding; meso-regions; Brazil PDF Are homicides and robberies associated with mortality due to COVID-19? Lessons from Urban Mexico Claudia Masferrer, Centro de Estudios Demográficos, Urbanos y Ambientales, El Colegio de México, Mexico City, Mexico Oscar Rodríguez Chávez, Departamento de Estudios de Población, El Colegio de la Frontera Norte, Juárez, Chihuahua, Mexico Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Volume: 20, 2022, pages (tbd - online-first) Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res2.4 cite as: Masferrer, C. and Rodríguez Chávez, O. (2022). Are homicides and robberies associated with mortality due to COVID-19? Lessons from Urban Mexico. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 20. https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res2.4 first online: 26.01.2022 Abstract: Studies on the symbiosis of crime and COVID-19 have analyzed governmentmandated lockdown effects. However, it is unknown to what extent previous crime rates determined a larger and more mortal spread of the pandemic. We study how homicides and robberies in the pre-pandemic year of 2019 are associated with 2020 mortality rates due to COVID-19 in urban municipalities in Mexico. Considering sex differentials in health, exposure to the virus and experiences of violence, we study whether gender differences in mortality exist in 2020. Using publicly available data on deaths due to COVID-19 provided by the Mexican Secretariat of Health, along with a series of indicators to characterize local pre-pandemic conditions of urban municipalities, we estimate a series of ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models on age-standardized crude death rates (ASCDR) by sex. Findings show that homicides—a proxy for criminal violence that might encourage people to stay home—show significant negative associations with mortality rates. Comparatively, robberies—a proxy of local violence and safety—were positively associated with mortality rates for both sexes. Sex differences in the determinants of ASCDR are discussed. Keywords: COVID-19; criminal violence; social determinants of mortality; gender differences in mortality; urban areas; Mexico PDF Data & Trends Assessing excess mortality in Vienna and Austria after the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic Ramon Bauer, Statistics Vienna at the City of Vienna’s Department for Economic Affairs, Labour and Statistics (MA 23), Vienna, Austria, Markus Speringer (corresponding author), Statistics Vienna at the City of Vienna’s Department for Economic Affairs, Labour and Statistics (MA 23), Vienna, Austria, Peter Frühwirt, Basic Research Section at the City of Vienna’s Department for Economic Affairs, Labour and Statistics (MA 23), Vienna, Austria, Roman Seidl, Basic Research Section at the City of Vienna’s Department for Economic Affairs, Labour and Statistics (MA 23), Vienna, Austria, Franz Trautinger, Statistics Vienna at the City of Vienna’s Department for Economic Affairs, Labour and Statistics (MA 23), Vienna, Austria Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Volume: 20, 2022, pages (tbd - online-first) Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.1 cite as: Bauer, R., Speringer, M., Frühwirt, P., Seidl, R. and Trautinger, F. (2022) Assessing excess mortality in Vienna and Austria after the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 20. https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.1 first online: 17.01.2022 Abstract: In Austria, the first confirmed COVID-19 death occurred in early March 2020. Since then, the question as to whether and, if so, to what extent the COVID-19 pandemic has increased overall mortality has been raised in the public and academic discourse. In an effort to answer this question, Statistics Vienna (City of Vienna, Department for Economic Affairs, Labour and Statistics) has evaluated the weekly mortality trends in Vienna, and compared them to the trends in other Austrian provinces. For our analysis, we draw on data from Statistics Austria and the Austrian Agency for Health and Food Safety (AGES), which are published along with data on the actual and the expected weekly numbers of deaths via the Vienna Mortality Monitoring website. Based on the definition of excess mortality as the actual number of reported deaths from all causes minus the expected number of deaths, we calculate the weekly prediction intervals of the expected number of deaths for two age groups (0 to 64 years and 65 years and older). The temporal scope of the analysis covers not only the current COVID-19 pandemic, but also previous flu seasons and summer heat waves. The results show the actual weekly numbers of deaths and the corresponding prediction intervals for Vienna and the other Austrian provinces since 2007. Our analysis underlines the importance of comparing time series of COVID-19-related excess deaths at the sub-national level in order to highlight within-country heterogeneities. Keywords: mortality; excess mortality; COVID-19; regional analysis; Austria PDF   COVID-19 in Hong Kong: Policies and community actions mitigate the effects of age structure and population density Zilin Li, Division of Public Policy, Center for Aging Science, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Kowloon, Hong Kong SAR, People’s Republic of China Stuart A. Gietel-Basten (corresponding author) Division of Public Policy, Division of Social Science, Center for Aging Science The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Kowloon, Hong Kong SAR, People’s Republic of China Rachel Ganly, Division of Social Science, Center for Aging Science, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Kowloon, Hong Kong SAR, People’s Republic of China Christian Joy Pattawi Cruz, Division of Public Policy, Center for Aging Science, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Kowloon, Hong Kong SAR, People’s Republic of China, Population Institute, University of the Philippines, Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines All authors contributed equally. Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Volume: 20, 2022, pages (tbd - online-first) Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.2 cite as: Li, Z., Gietel-Basten, S. A. , Ganly, R.  and Cruz, C. J. P. (2022) COVID-19 in Hong Kong: Policies and community actions mitigate the effects of age structure and population density. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 20. https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.2 first online: 18.01.2022 Abstract: Despite the various socio-demographic vulnerabilities of Hong Kong to the COVID-19 pandemic, the city has successfully managed four waves of local outbreaks, as shown by its comparatively low numbers of confirmed cases and deaths. In this paper, we identify and differentiate the unique  characteristics of Hong Kong’s COVID-19 outbreaks from those of other territories, and analyse the factors that shaped these characteristics. In particular, we examine four local demographic factors – older age structure, high population density, poor housing conditions and a large migrant population – which, according to current scientific evidence, would likely indicate that the city faces a relatively high risk of the significant spread of COVID-19. We analyse and explain how multiple policies related to border controls, social distancing, testing and tracing, partial lockdowns and housing management, as well as sustained community actions, helped to mitigate the effects of these significant disadvantages. Keywords: COVID-19; age structure; population density; policy responses; community action; Hong Kong PDF Rapid changes in birth counts in Brazilian major cities during the COVID-19 pandemic Everton E. C. Lima,  College of Philosophy and Human Sciences (IFCH), University of Campinas (UNICAMP), Campinas, Brazil Camila F. Soares (corresponding author), College of Philosophy and Human Sciences (IFCH), University of Campinas (UNICAMP), Campinas, Brazil José H. C. Monteiro da Silva, Centro Latino-americano e Caribenho de Demografia (CELADE), Comissão Econômica para a América Latina e o Caribe – Santiago, Chile Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Volume: 20, 2022, pages (tbd - online-first) Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.3 cite as: Lima, E. E. C., Soares, C. F., Monteiro da Silva, J. H. C. (2022). Rapid changes in birth counts in Brazilian major cities during the COVID-19 pandemic. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 20. https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.3 first online: 16.3.2022 Abstract: Since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, Brazil has been among the countries that have been heavily a ected by this novel disease. From March 2020 onwards, records of deaths in Brazil increased as the number of COVID-19 infections skyrocketed. Consequently, many studies have tried to explain how this illness has a ected the overall number of deaths since the start of the pandemic, and have examined the question of whether mortality related to COVID-19 has led to reductions in life expectancy. However, at the time of writing, there have been few empirical analyses of the e ects of the pandemic on births. In this study, we sought to investigate whether the COVID-19 pandemic influenced the recent birth counts of six large cities in Brazil by assessing the most up-to-date vital statistics data that are available. Using data from the municipal health departments of these cities, we compared the number of monthly births from October–December 2020 and January–March 2021 with the number of new-borns in similar months and years before the pandemic. Our results show that there was a strong decline in the number of births in some of the cities analysed, and that most of the reductions occurred among women around the age of 30 years old. It appears that because of the uncertainty surrounding the pandemic, women have been postponing or foregoing the realisation of their fertility intentions, which may have led to a temporary baby bust in some cities of Brazil. However, the COVID-19 pandemic was not found to be associated with faster reductions in births in all Brazilian cities. Indeed, in the cities of Rio de Janeiro and Belo Horizonte, the decreasing trend in birth counts appears to have slowed down, or even reversed. Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic; birth count changes; Brazilian cities PDF Pregnancies and contraceptive use in four African countries during the COVID-19 pandemic Andreas Backhaus, Federal Institute for Population Research (BiB), Wiesbaden, Germany Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Volume: 20, 2022, pages (tbd - online-first) Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.4 cite as: Backhaus, A. (2022) Pregnancies and contraceptive use in four African countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 20. https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.4 first online: 19.07.2022 Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic and the public health measures adopted in response to it have triggered plenty of speculation about the potential impact on fertility in different regions of the globe. This study provides evidence on the fertility response in four sub-Saharan African countries during the first year of the pandemic. Using harmonized data on women of childbearing age from the Performance Monitoring for Action (PMA) data series, this study compares pregnancy rates at the turn of the year 2020/21 to a pre-pandemic baseline. There is no indication of a general increase in pregnancy rates after the beginning of the pandemic. In some of the sample countries, pregnancy rates during this phase of the COVID-19 pandemic instead fell significantly among the youngest and the least educated women of childbearing age, respectively. The findings also indicate that over this period, rates of modern contraceptive usage rose significantly among the surveyed female populations in several sample countries. Keywords: fertility; pregnancy; COVID-19, sub-Saharan Africa PDF   Exploring psychological vulnerability and responses to the COVID-19 lockdown in Greece Lydia Xourafi, Semion ψ – Social Creative Actions NGO and National Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece Polyxeni Sardi, Department of Statistics, Athens University of Economics and Business, Athens, Greece Anastasia Kostaki (corresponding author), Department of Statistics, Athens University of Economics and Business, Athens, Greece Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Volume: 20, 2022, pages (tbd - online-first) Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.5 cite as: Xourafi, L., Polyxeni, S. and Kostaki, A.  (2022) Exploring psychological vulnerability and responses to the COVID-19 lockdown in Greece. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 20. https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.5 first online: 28.07.2022 Abstract: This study explores the psychosocial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the population in Greece during the general lockdown period. Specifically, depression, anxiety and stress scores, as well as the factors associated with vulnerability to developing mental health conditions during this period, were investigated. A total of 911 adults participated in an online survey by completing a self-reporting questionnaire that included demographic questions, DASS-42 items (anxiety, stress and depression scales) and other questions related to personal experience. Regression modelling uncovered a significant relationship between gender and DASS scores,with women having significantly higher scores than men for all mental health problems. Participants aged 20–39 years were especially vulnerable to experiencing poor mental health. Unemployed participants reported having worse mental health than others. Having more perceived psychosocial support during the pandemic was associated with lower overall scores. Thus, women, young adults and the unemployed exhibited particularly high levels of vulnerability, while individuals who received social support from relatives and friends during the lockdown were more resilient to the effects of social isolation. Keywords: COVID-19; lockdown; pandemic consequences; mental health; DASS-42 score; anxiety; depression; stress; digitalisation; teleworking PDF  |  supplementary material Why did care home residents face an elevated risk of death from COVID-19? A demographic perspective using data from Belgium and from England and Wales Nicole Mun Sim Lai, The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York, USA Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Volume: 20, 2022, pages (tbd - online-first) Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.6 cite as: Lai, M.,  (2022) Why did care home residents face an elevated risk of death from COVID-19? A demographic perspective using data from Belgium and from England and Wales. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 20. https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.6 first online: 19.07.2022 Abstract: In many countries, deaths from COVID-19 were highly concentrated among care home residents during the initial wave of the pandemic. Care home residents may have faced higher risks of exposure and infection than the general population of older people. Once infected, residents may have been more likely to succumb to this disease as they were both older and frailer than the general population of older people. This study presents a quantified assessment of these factors in Belgium and in England and Wales. In doing so, this paper applies the Das Gupta decomposition method to explain the contributions of these three factors to the observed differences in mortality rates from COVID-19 between older people residing in care homes and older people living at home. According to these estimates, older people residing in care homes were 36 times more likely to die in Belgium and were 23 times more likely to die in England and Wales from COVID-19 than older people living at home during the initial wave of the pandemic. Decomposition of the differences in the mortality rates of these populations in Belgium and in England and Wales showed that the two key determinants were the greater underlying frailty of older people in care homes (accounting for 46% of the differences in Belgium and 66% of the differences in England and Wales) and the higher infection prevalence of older people in care homes (accounting for 40% of the differences in Belgium and 26% of the differences in England and Wales). Keywords: COVID-19; care home/nursing home; infection prevalence; decomposition PDF   Comparing the loss of life expectancy at birth during the 2020 and 1918 pandemics in six European countries Valentin Rousson, Center for Primary Care and Public Health (Unisanté), University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland Fred Paccaud, Center for Primary Care and Public Health (Unisanté), University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland Isabella Locatelli, Center for Primary Care and Public Health (Unisanté), University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Volume: 20, 2022, pages (tbd - online-first) Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.7 cite as: Rousson, V., Paccaud, F., Locatelli, I.  (2022) Comparing the loss of life expectancy at birth during the 2020 and 1918 pandemics in six European countries. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 20. https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.7 first online: Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic that reached Europe in 2020 has often been compared to the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918. In this article, we compare the two pandemics in terms of their respective impacts on the loss of life expectancy at birth in six European countries (France, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland) by estimating life expectancy in 2020 using Eurostat data. We found that the loss of life expectancy at birth was up to 20 times larger between 1917 and 1918 than between 2019 and 2020. A decomposition of these losses clearly shows that in all six countries, the main contributors were older age groups in 2020 and younger age groups in 1918. These observations are consistent with evidence indicating that most COVID-19 fatalities were among the elderly, while a majority of Spanish flu fatalities were among the young. Keywords: all-cause mortality; COVID-19; Europe; life expectancy decomposition; period life expectancy; Spanish flu. PDF  |  supplementary material  
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VIRTUAL WIC BOOTH Master Programme Global Demography (University of Vienna) The principal aim of the master’s programme in Global Demography at the University of Vienna is to give students a strong scientific grounding in the analysis and forecasting of demographic developments across the globe – in particular, fertility, mortality and migration trends. Report of Activities 2018-2022 The Wittgenstein Centre Reports cover the achievements of the Wittgenstein Centre during various periods. The most recent Wittgenstein Centre Report of Activities “Advancing Demography and Global Human Capital Research” summarizes the achievements of the Wittgenstein Centre in the years 2018-2022. POPNET Newsletter The POPNET newsletter has been issued since 1982 for an extensive network of researchers and institutes working in the field of population and sustainable development. On a regular basis collaborators and interested individuals are provided with details of developments within the program, current research, latest publications, and information on forthcoming meetings and conferences. Since summer 2022 the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital highlights the latest News, Publications, Events and other activities of the population network with an electronic POPNET newsletter. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research The Vienna Yearbook of Population Research (VYPR) is an open-access journal that features contributions addressing population trends as well as a broad range of theoretical and methodological issues in population research. For the content of the next Special Issue on Population and Climate Change please see the call. European Demographic Data Sheet The European Demographic Data Sheet 2022 reviews, explores and visualises recent population trends in 45 European countries and focuses on population consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. Fact Sheets The Wittgenstein Centre provides fact sheets to current demographic topics that inform about the role of demography in science and provide research highlights on climate change and demography; migration; longevity, health, wellbeing; economic demography; fertility and family; Covid-19 and on the Wittgenstein Centre itself. The Wittgenstein Centre fact sheets are provided in English as well as German language. Wittgenstein Centre Human Capital Data Explorer Explore, select and download data on past reconstructions and future projections of the global population by age, sex and education – and visualize it with the Wittgenstein Centre Human Capital Graphic Explorer Advanced Introduction to Demography (Wolfgang Lutz) Highlighting the power of multi-dimensional demography, this Advanced Introduction addresses the most consequential changes in our societies and economies using quantitative approaches. (Edward Elgar Publishing) Demografische Forschung aus erster Hand In der aktuellen Ausgabe finden Sie die folgenden Themen: Mittlere Generationen durch Pandemie besonders belastet. Kompensation von Lohneinbußen kann Lasten gerechter verteilen Rückgang der Geburtenrate in Nordeuropa. Vor allem bei jüngeren Frauen und in ländlicheren Gegenden nahm die Fertilität ab Demenzen oder Krebs? Welche Krankheiten werden zukünftig am Lebensende überwiegen?