Special issue on:

 

Fertility across time and space


Guest editors: Tomáš Sobotka, Aiva Jasilioniene, Kryštof Zeman and Diego Ramiro Fariñas

Managing editor: Maria Winkler-Dworak



Debate


International political economy and future fertility trends


Moving out the parental home and partnership formation as social determinants of low fertility

  • Albert Esteve, Diederik Boertien, Ryohei Mogi, and Mariona Lozano
    Full text | Details

“Catching up with ‘compressed modernity” - How the values of Millennials and Gen-Z’ers could reframe gender equity and demographic systems


Future fertility trends are shaped at the intersection of gender and social stratification


Fertility will be determined by changing ideal family size and the empowerment to reach these targets


Marriage will (continue to) be the key to the future of fertility in Japan and East Asia


    Review


    Ultra-low Fertility in East Asia: Confucianism and its discontents


      Research Articles


      Laggards in the global fertility transition


      Projecting future births with fertility differentials reflecting women's educational and migrant characteristics


      Decomposing changes in first birth trends: Quantum, timing, or variance


      What factors support the early age patterns of fertility in a developing country: the case of Kyrgyzstan


      Marital fertility decline and death of children in the Sardinian longevity Blue Zone


      Details & Abstracts


      Debate


      International political economy and future fertility trends

      Alicia Adsera (corresponding author), Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, USA

      Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
      Volume: 18, 2020, pages (tbd - online-first)
      Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
      doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2020.deb01

      cite as:
      Adsera, A. 2020. "International political economy and future fertility trends" Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020 (Volume 18): (tbd - online-first).

      first online: 08.07.2020

      PDF


       

      Moving out the parental home and partnership formation as social determinants of low fertility

      Albert Esteve (corresponding author), Centre d’Estudis Demogràfics,  Barcelona, Spain
      Diederik Boertien, Centre d’Estudis Demogràfics,  Barcelona, Spain
      Ryohei Mogi, Centre d’Estudis Demogràfics,  Barcelona, Spain
      Mariona Lozano, Centre d’Estudis Demogràfics,  Barcelona, Spain

      Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
      Volume: 18, 2020, pages (tbd - online-first)
      Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
      doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2020.deb02

      cite as:
      Esteve, A., Boertien, D., Mogi, R., Lozano, M. 2020. "Moving out the parental home and partnership formation as social determinants of low fertility" Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020 (Volume 18): (tbd - online-first).

      first online: 08.07.2020

      PDF


       

      “Catching up with ‘compressed modernity’” - How the values of Millennials and Gen-Z’ers could reframe gender equity and demographic systems

      Stuart Gietel-Basten, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, People’s Republic of China

      Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
      Volume: 18, 2020, pages
      Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
      doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2020.deb03

      cite as:
      Gietel-Basten, S. 2020. "“Catching up with ‘compressed modernity’” - How the values of Millennials and Gen-Z’ers could reframe gender equity and demographic systems" Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020 (Volume 18):

      first online: 30.07.2020

      PDF


       

      Future fertility trends are shaped in the intersection of gender and social stratification

      Trude Lappegård, University of Oslo, Norway

      Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
      Volume: 18, 2020, pages
      Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
      doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2020.deb04

      cite as:
      Lappegård, T. 2020. "Future fertility trends are shaped in the intersection of gender and social stratification" Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020 (Volume 18):

      first online: 22.07.2020

      PDF


       

      Fertility will be determined by changing ideal family size and the empowerment to reach these targets

      Wolfgang Lutz, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University ofVienna), Department of Demography, University of Vienna, World Population Program (IIASA),Vienna Institute of Demography (VID), Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna, Austria

      Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
      Volume: 18, 2020, pages
      Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
      doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2020.deb06

      cite as:
      Lutz, W. 2020. "Fertility will be determined by changing ideal family size and the empowerment to reach these targets" Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020 (Volume 18):

      first online: 04.08.2020

      PDF


       

      Marriage will (continue to) be the key to the future of fertility in Japan and East Asia

      Setsuya Fukuda, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Tokyo, Japan

      Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
      Volume: 18, 2020, pages
      Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
      doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2020.deb07

      cite as:
      Fukuda, S. 2020. "Marriage will (continue to) be the key to the future of fertility in Japan and East Asia" Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020 (Volume 18):

      first online: 22.07.2020

      PDF

       


      Review


      Ultra-low fertility in East Asia: Confucianism and its discontents

      Yen-hsin Alice Cheng, Institute of Sociology, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan

      Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
      Volume: 18, 2020, pages
      Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
      doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2020.rev01

      cite as:
      Cheng, Y. 2020. "Ultra-low fertility in East Asia: Confucianism and its discontents" Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020 (Volume 18):

      first online: 10.09.2020

       

      pdf


      Research articles


      Laggards in the global fertility transition

      David Shapiro (corresponding author), Pennsylvania State University, Santa Fe, USA
      Andrew Hinde, Department of Social Statistics and Demography, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK

      Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
      Volume: 18, 2020, pages (tbd - online-first)
      Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
      doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2020.res01

      cite as:
      Shapiro, D., Hinde, A. 2020. "Laggards in the global fertility transition" Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020 (Volume 18): (tbd - online-first).

      first online: 09.07.2020

      Abstract:

      Between the early 1950s and the present, the global fertility transition has been nearly universal in the developing world. However, as of 2017, two countries out of the 190 countries for which the United Nations provides fertility estimates had not yet met the conventional criterion for establishing the onset of the fertility transition (a decline of at least 10 per cent from peak fertility), and another five countries did so only very recently. These are the laggards in the global fertility transition. The countries are all in sub-Saharan Africa: Chad, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, The Gambia, Mali, Niger, and Somalia. This paper first reviews the fertility history of these seven countries, and subsequently provides data on the timing and pace of the global fertility transition in the four major developing regions: Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, Northern Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa. It then explores potential reasons for the slow emergence of fertility decline in each country. The paper concludes with a discussion of each country’s prospects for fertility decline, which generally are weaker than those in the projections of the United Nations.

       

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      Projecting future births with fertility differentials reflecting women's educational and migrant characteristics

      Michaela Potančoková (corresponding author), Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University ofVienna), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria, formerly at the Joint Research Centre – European Commission
      Guillaume Marois, Asian Demographic Research Institute (ADRI), Shanghai University, Baoshan, Shanghai, China, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University ofVienna), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria

      Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
      Volume: 18, 2020, pages
      Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
      doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2020.res02

      cite as:
      Potančoková, M., Marois, G. 2020. "Projecting future births with fertility differentials reflecting women's educational and migrant characteristics" Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020 (Volume 18): .

      first online: 04.08.2020

      Abstract:

      Building on the well-established knowledge on fertility differentials by educationand nativity/migration status, we employ microsimulation modelling to demonstratethe effect of accounting for such differences in population projections. We considerfertility differentials by educational attainment, enrolment in full-time education,region of birth, age at immigration, and duration of stay in the host country, whichwe introduce step-wise into the microsimulation model for the EU28. Results onprojected TFRs and births by 2060 illustrate the importance of accounting forseveral sources of population heterogeneity. In the context of future educationalexpansion, modelling education differentials for students and for women withcompleted education is needed to capture the postponement effect of education onchildbearing. Future migration assumptions that include migrant fertility differen-tials lead to widely varying projected numbers of future births. At fixed fertilitydifferentials and a fixed composition of immigrant flows, the net effect of immigrantfertility on the overall TFR in the EU28 is projected to increase from the estimated0.12 in 2015–2019 to 0.17 in 2055–59 in the scenario with baseline migration, andto 0.25 in 2055–59 in the scenario with doubled migration.

      Keywords:population projection; microsimulation; fertility; education; immigrants

       

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      Decomposing changes in first birth trends: Quantum, timing, or variance

      Ryohei Mogi (corresponding author), Center for Demographic Studies, Barcelona, Spain
      Michael Dominic del Mundo, Population Institute, University of the Philippines, Philippines

      Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
      Volume: 18, 2020, pages
      Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
      doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2020.res03

      cite as:
      Mogi, R., del Mundo, M.D.,  2020. "Decomposing changes in first birth trends: Quantum, timing, or variance" Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020 (Volume 18): .

      first online: 22.07.2020

      Abstract:

      In high-income countries, women and men born since the 1940s have delayed the birth of their first child, more of them have remained childless, and the timing of the first birth has become more diverse in these cohorts. The interaction between these three trends makes the research on first birth patterns more complex. This study has two main aims: (1) we introduce an alternative index, Expected Years Without Children (EYWC), to quantify changes in first birth behaviour; and (2) we decompose the changes in EYWC over time into three effects: remaining permanently childless, postponing the first birth, and the expansion of the standard deviation of the mean age at first birth. Using data from the Human Fertility Database, EYWC is calculated to illustrate time trends among women born in the 1910s–1960s in eight countries with longer series of data on cohort first birth trends: Canada, the Czech Republic, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Sweden, and the United States. Our decomposition shows that the changes in EYWC are mainly attributable to postponement in North America and northern Europe, whereas these changes are largely due to increasing shares of women remaining childless in Japan and Portugal.

      Keywords: childlessness; postponement of first birth; decomposition method; Coale-McNeil model; life table

       

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      What factors support the early age patterns of fertility in a developing country: the case of Kyrgyzstan

      Konstantin Kazenin (corresponding author), Russian Academy for National Economy and Public Administration, Moscow, Russia, National Research Institute – Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia
      Vladimir Kozlov, National Research Institute – Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia

      Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
      Volume: 18, 2020, pages
      Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
      doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2020.res04

      cite as:
      Kazenin, K., Kozlov, V. 2020. "What factors support the early age patterns of fertility in a developing country: the case of Kyrgyzstan" Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020 (Volume 18): .

      first online: 11.08.2020

      Abstract:

      We analyse the socio-economic and cultural factors that influence the timing of thefirst birth in Kyrgyzstan. As in several other developing countries in Central Asia,no trend towards the postponement of fertility has been observed in Kyrgyzstan.This contrasts not only with the current trend towards later parenthood that hasbeen documented in highly developed countries, but with an incipient trend towardsa delay in the timing of the first birth that has been reported in many developingcountries. Our study is based on the Multiple Indicators Cluster Survey – 2014(MICS2014), with complementary data drawn from the Demography and HealthSurvey – 2012 (DHS2012). Our analysis of the first union and of the first birth ina union for cohorts of women born between 1965 and 1998 showed that the ratesof union formation and motherhood have increased among the younger cohorts. Wealso found that a woman’s education, labour market experience, and the genderrelations in her family influenced her likelihood of transitioning to a first unionand to motherhood. In addition, we uncovered significant differences in the timingof motherhood and union formation between women of different ethnicities, andlooked at the factors that may have contributed to these differences. The factors thatsupport a stable age pattern of fertility in Kyrgyzstan are of interest when conductingbroader comparative research on fertility timing in developing countries, as thesefactors may help explain the current diversity in these patterns.

      Keywords: fertility timing; fertility postponement; age at first birth; developing countries; Central Asia

       

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      Marital fertility decline and death of children in the Sardinian longevity Blue Zone

      Michel Poulain, Estonian Institute for Population Studies, Tallinn University, Estonia, IACCHOS, Universit ́e catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
      Dany Chambre, Gerontologist, Estaimpuis, Belgium
      Pino Ledda, Genealogist, Seulo, Sardinia, Italy
      Anne Herm, Estonian Institute for Population Studies, Tallinn University, Estonia

      Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
      Volume: 18, 2020, pages
      Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
      doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2020.res05

      cite as:
      Poulain,M., Chambre, D., Ledda, P., Herm, A. 2020. "Marital fertility decline and death of children in the Sardinian longevity Blue Zone" Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020 (Volume 18): .

      first online: 10.09.2020

      Abstract:
      Several authors have studied the late fertility transition in Sardinia, which did not start until the 1950s. This contribution aims to investigate the association between the decline in marital fertility and the fall in infant and child mortality. We use individual data to undertake classical family reconstruction starting from the mid-19th century for the population of two Sardinian villages, Villagrande Strisailliand Seulo, which we have previously studied for their remarkable longevity. Our results indicate that in this population, there were very few signs of fertility decline prior to 1920, and fertility decreased only gradually before 1950, but that the decline in fertility accelerated thereafter. We also found that infant and childmortality decreased slightly between the two world wars, and did not decline substantially until after the Second World War. The question arises as to whether these two transitions were associated, and, if they were, which one preceded the other. Our results suggest that there was some degree of synchronisation, with more pronounced changes beginning in the 1950s. We found that this association cannot simply be explained by a causal relationship based on altered demographic behaviour. Substantial socio-economic changes that began between the two world wars and developed fully in the 1950s might have caused both fertility and mortality declines within a traditional society that was undergoing a transition to adapt to the modern world.

      Keywords: marital fertility; infant mortality; child mortality; demographic transition; family reconstruction; Sardinia; longevity blue zone

       

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      Online access to all volumes:

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