Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2018


 

Special issue on:

Broadening demographic horizons

 


Guest editors: Alexia Prskawetz, Sergei Scherbov und Warren Sanderson

Managing editor: Maria Winkler-Dworak

Introduction

Broadening demographic horizons: demographic studies beyond age and gender


Demographic Debate


Are there Principles of Demography? A search for Unifying (and Hegemonic) Themes


Can Taylor's law of fluctuation scaling and its relatives help select more plausible multi-regional population forecasts?


Probabilistic demographic forecasts


Education and demography: A Review of World Population and Human Capital in the 21st Century


Research Articles


Population Dynamics and Human Capital in Muslim Countries


Survival Inequalities and Redistribution in the Italian Pension System


Does Education matter? – Economic Dependency Ratios by Education


Multistate Projections of Australia’s Indigenous Population: Interacting Area Group and Identification Status Change

  • James Raymer, Yanlin Shi, James O'Donnell and Nicholas Biddle
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The End of Population Ageing in the More Developed World


From intentions to births: Paths of realization in a multi-dimensional life course


Towards causal forecasting of international migration


 


    Data & Trends

    Summary of "Demographiy and human capital scenarios for the 21st century"

     


    "Express Transitioning" as Special Case of the Demographic Transition


     


      Details & Abstracts

      Introduction

      Broadening demographic horizons: demographic studies beyond age and gender

      Alexia Prskawetz (corresponding author), Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital, Vienna Institute of Demography, Welthandelsplatz 2, Level 2, 1020, Vienna, Austria
      Warren Sanderson, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria
      Sergei Scherbov, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

      Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
      Volume: 16, 2018, pages 1-5
      Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
      doi: doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2018s001

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      Demographic debate

      Are there principles of demography? A search for unifying (and hegemonic) themes

      William P. Butz, Senior Research Scholar, World Population Program, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria
      Email: william.butz@icloud.com

      Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research

      Volume: 16, 2018, pages 9-14
      Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
      doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2018s009

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      Can Taylor’s law of fluctuation scaling and its relatives help demographers select more plausible multi-regional population forecasts?

      Joel E. Cohen (corresponding author), Laboratory of Populations, The Rockefeller University and Columbia University, 1230 York Avenue, New York, NY 10065, USA Additional affiliations: Earth Institute and Department of Statistics, Columbia University, USA; Department of Statistics, University of Chicago, USA
      E-mail: cohen@rockefeller.edu

      Helge Brunborg, Previously with Statistics Norway
      E-mail: Helge.Brunborg@gmail.com

      Meng Xu, Department of Mathematics, Pace University, 41 Park Row, New York, NY 10038, USA
      E-mail: mxu@pace.edu

      Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research

      Volume: 16, 2018, pages 15-23
      Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
      doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2018s015

      Abstract:

      Which of several alternative population forecasts is the “best” or the most plausible? In published work summarized here, we use Taylor’s law (TL) and its quadratic generalization to select the best among six alternative projections (by Statistics Norway) of Norwegian county population density. We consider two time scales: long term (1978–2010 as the historical basis for projections of 2011–2040) and short term (2006–2010 as the historical basis for projections of 2011–2015). We find that the short-term projections selected as “best” by TL are more closely aligned than the four other projections with the recent county density data, and reflect the current high rate of international net immigration to Norway. Our approach needs to be further tested using other data and demographic forecasts.

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      Probabilistic demographic forecasts

      Nico Keilman, Department of Economics, P.O. Box 1095 Blindern, N 0317 Oslo, Norway

      E-mail: nico.keilman@econ.uio.no

      Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research

      Volume: 16, 2018, pages 25 - 35
      Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
      doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2018s025

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      Education and demography: a review of world population and human capital in the 21st century

      Philip Rees, Professor Emeritus, School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK

      E-mail: p.h.rees@leeds.ac.uk

      Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research

      Volume: 16, 2018, pages 37 - 53
      Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
      doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2018s037

       

      Abstract:

      This discussion piece is an extended review of the work on projecting the world’s population  and  human  capital  by  country  conducted  by  the  Wittgenstein  Centre (WIC). The project was led by Wolfgang Lutz, and its outcomes were published by Oxford University Press in a book that appeared in 2014. Using statistics from the  book  and  elsewhere,  this  article  starts  with  an  overview  of  the  development of educational attainment. The role that education plays in the WIC2014 model is identified. Definitions of ‘multi-dimensional’, ‘multi-state’, and ‘micro-simulation’ are offered, and are used to characterise the model. A thumbnail sketch of the main methods used in the projections is given. The final section sets out a possible agenda for the future development of the WIC2014 model. This review is intended to help readers  tackle  the  more  than  1,000  pages  of  argument  and  analysis  in  the  book, which represents a major contribution to demographic research in the 21st century.

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      Research articles

      Multistate Projections of Australia’s Indigenous Population: Interacting Area Group and Identification Status Change

      James Raymer (corresponding author), School of Demography, Research School of Social Sciences,
      Australian National University, 9 Fellows Road, Acton ACT 2601, Australia
      Email: james.raymer@anu.edu.au
      Yanlin Shi, Department of Actuarial Studies and Business Analytics, Macquarie University, Australia
      James O’Donnell, School of Demography, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University, Australia
      Nicholas Biddle, Centre for Aboriginal Economic Policy Research and ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University, Australia

      Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
      Volume: 16, 2018, pages 135 - 162
      Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
      doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2018s135

      Abstract:

      In this paper, we develop a multistate projection model that allows the Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander (Indigenous) population to move between area classifications and Indigenous self-identification statuses. We combine data from the Australian Census Longitudinal Dataset and the 2011 census to estimate the transitions between 2006 and 2011. This information is then included in a multistate population projection model to illustrate the effects of migration and identification change over time in relation to natural increase (i.e., births – deaths). The results show how patterns of identification change differ by both age and type of migration, and how migration and identification change affect patterns of Indigenous population change across major cities, regional areas, and remote areas in Australia.

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      The end of population aging in high-income countries

      Warren C. Sanderson (corresponding author), Department of Economics, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook 11794-4384, New York, USA
      Email: warren.sanderson@stonybrook.edu
      Sergei Scherbov, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/ÖAW,WU), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
      Patrick Gerland, United Nations Organization, Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), Population Division, Two UN Plaza, Room DC2-1934, New York, NY 10017, USA.

      These authors contributed equally to this work.

      Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
      Volume: 16, 2018, pages 163 - 175
      Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
      doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2018s163

      Abstract:

      Will the population of today’s high-income countries continue to age throughout the remainder of the century? We answer this question by combining two methodologies, Bayesian hierarchical probabilistic population forecasting and the use of prospective ages, which are chronological ages adjusted for changes in life expectancy. We distinguish two variants of measures of aging: those that depend on fixed chronological ages and those that use prospective ages. Conventional measures do not, for example, distinguish between 65-year-olds in 2000 and 65- year-olds in 2100. In making forecasts of population aging over long periods of time, ignoring changes in the characteristics of people can lead to misleading results. It is preferable to use measures based on prospective ages in which expected changes in life expectancy are taken into account. We present probabilistic forecasts of population aging that use conventional and prospective measures for high-income countries as a group. The probabilistic forecasts based on conventional measures of aging show that the probability that aging will continue throughout the century is essentially one. In contrast, the probabilistic forecasts based on prospective measures of population aging show that population aging will almost certainly come to end well before the end of the century. Using prospective measures of population aging, we show that aging in high-income countries is likely a transitory phenomenon.

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      Survival Inequalities and Redistribution in the Italian Pension System

      Graziella Caselli (corresponding author), Sapienza University of Rome, Department of Statistical Sciences, Viale Regina Elena 295, 00161, Rome, Italy
      Email: graziella.caselli@uniroma1.it
      Rosa Maria Lipsi, Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT), Italy

      Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
      Volume: 16, 2018, pages 83 - 110
      Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
      doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2018s083

      Abstract:

      The public pension system in Italy is a defined contribution scheme based on the principle of actuarial fairness. The pension annuity is calculated starting from capitalised value and the Legislated Conversion Factors (LCFs) for each retirement age. The demographic parameters used by legislators in computing the LCFs are the survival probabilities of an average Italian, irrespective of gender or any characteristic except age. The aim of this paper is to analyse the impact of the differences in survival between men and women, and between individuals with different educational levels, on the calculation of the pension annuity, starting from the specific Conversion Factors (CFs). The gap between the LCFs and the factors obtained by allowing for differential survival across gender and socio-demographic groups (CFs) gives us a means of making a quantitative assessment of the implicit redistributive impacts of the annuity redistribution from individuals with a lower life expectancy to individuals with a higher life expectancy.

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      From intentions to births: paths of realisation in a multi-dimensional life course

      Maria Rita Testa (corresponding author), Wittgenstein Centre (IIASA, VID/̈OAW, WU), Vienna Institute of Demography/Austrian Academy of Sciences, Welthandelsplatz 2, 1020 Vienna, Austria

      E-mail: maria.rita.testa@oeaw.ac.at

      Francesco Rampazzo, University of Southampton, UK

      Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
      Volume: 16, 2018, pages 177 - 198
      Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
      doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2018s177

      Abstract:

      The  adult  lives  of  women  and  men  are  shaped  by  a  wide  range  of  choices  and events  pertaining  to  different  life  domains.  In  the  literature,  however,  pregnancy intentions are typically studied in isolation from other life course intentions. We investigate  the  correspondence  of  birth  intentions  and  outcomes  in  a  life  course cross-domain perspective that includes partnership, education, work, and housing. Using  longitudinal  data  from  the  Generations  and  Gender  Surveys,  we  examine the matching processes of individuals’ birth intentions with subsequent outcomes in  Austria,  Bulgaria,  France,  Hungary,  and  Lithuania.  The  results  show  that  the intention  to  change  residence  is  directly  correlated  with  having  a  child  among men  and  women  living  in  a  union,  and  that  the  intention  to  enter  a  partnership is correlated with childbearing among single men, but not among single women. Furthermore, we find that the intention to change jobs is inversely correlated with an intended childbirth, while it is directly correlated with an unintended childbirth. These  findings  suggest  that  the  transition  paths  from  birth  intentions  to  birth outcomes should encompass a multi-dimensional life course perspective.

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      Towards causal forecasting of international migration

      Frans Willekens, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), Lange Houtstraat 19, NL-2511 CV The Hague, The Netherlands
      Email: willekens@nidi.n

      Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
      Volume: 16, 2018, pages 199 - 218
      Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
      doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2018s199

      Abstract:

      International migration is difficult to predict because of uncertainties. The identification of sources of uncertainty and the measurement and modelling of uncertainties are necessary, but they are not sufficient. Uncertainties should be reduced by accounting for the heterogeneity of migrants, the reasons why some people leave their country while most stay, and the causal mechanisms that lead to those choices. International migration takes place within a context of globalisation, technological change, growing interest in migration governance, and the emergence of a migration industry. Young people are more likely than older people to respond to these contextual factors, as they are better informed, have greater self-efficacy, and are more likely to have a social network abroad than previous generations. My aim in this paper is to present ideas for the causal forecasting of migration. Wolfgang Lutz’s demographic theory of socioeconomic change is a good point of departure. The cohort-replacement mechanism, which is central to Lutz’s theory, is extended to account for cohort heterogeneity, life-cycle transitions, and learning. I close the paper by concluding that the time has come to explore the causal mechanisms underlying migration, and to make optimal use of that knowledge to improve migration forecasts.

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      Population dynamics and human capital in Muslim countries

      Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi (corresponding author), Department of Demography, Faculty of Social Sciences, Jalal Al Ahmad Avenue, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran; and Professorial Fellow, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, Medicine, Dentistry and Health Sciences,The University of Melbourne, Australia
      Email: mabbasi@ut.ac.ir

      Gavin W. Jones, Emeritus Professor, Australian National University, ACT, Canberra, Australia

       

      Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
      Volume: 16, 2018, pages 57 - 81
      Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
      doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2018s057

      Abstract:

      Muslim countries have experienced unprecedented demographic and social transitions in recent decades. The population dynamics in most of these countries have led to the emergence of a young age structure. High-fertility countries such as Yemen and Afghanistan have the highest proportions of children in the population; while countries like Indonesia and Bangladesh, where fertility is approaching replacement level, have relatively high proportions of youth (aged 15-29) in the population. In Iran, fertility is below replacement level. Education, as an indicator of human capital, has also been improving in all Muslim countries, albeit with considerable variation. These dynamics are creating opportunities and challenges related to the economy, wealth distribution, health, political governance, and socio-economic structures. National development policies should emphasise human development to enable countries to take advantage of these emerging population trends, and to ensure that sustainable development is achieved at all levels. But given the cultural and socio-economic diversity among Islamic countries, context-specific analysis is needed to provide us with a deeper understanding of these population issues, as well as of the pathways to achieving population policy objectives

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      Does education matter? – economic dependency ratios by education

      Alexia Prskawetz (corresponding author), Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital, Welthandelsplatz 2/Level 2, 1020 Vienna, Austria and TU Wien, Austria
      Email: afp@econ.tuwien.ac.at

      Bernhard Hammer, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital, Vienna, Austria

      Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
      Volume: 16, 2018, pages 111 - 134
      Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
      doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2018s111

      Abstract:

      When studying the economic consequences of changes in the age structure of the population, looking at economic dependency ratios provides us with some descriptive and intuitive initial insights. In this paper, we present two economic dependency ratios. The first ratio is based on economic activity status, and relates the number of dependent individuals to the number of workers. The second dependency ratio relates consumption to total labour income. To build up the second ratio, we rely on the recently set up National Transfer Accounts (NTA) for Austria. Simulations of the employment-based dependency ratio with constant age-specific employment rates indicate that the employment-based dependency ratio will increase from 1.23 in 2010 to 1.88 in 2050, based on a population scenario that assumes low mortality and high educational levels in the future. The corresponding values for the NTA-based dependency with constant age-specific labour income and consumption are 1.12 in 2010 and 1.49 in 2050. We then compare how the dependency ratio would differ if we accounted for the increasing levels of educational attainment. While the education-specific age patterns of economic activities are kept constant as of 2010, the changing educational composition up to 2050 is accounted for. In Austria, higher educated individuals enter and exit the labour market at older ages and have more total labour income than lower educated individuals. Our simulations of the education-specific economic dependency ratios up to 2050, based on the optimistic projection scenario of low mortality and high educational levels in the future, show that the employment-based ratio will increase to 1.68 and the NTA-based dependency ratio will rise to 1.28. These increases are still considerable, but are well below the values found when changes in the educational composition are not taken into account. We can therefore conclude that the trend towards higher levels of educational attainment may help to reduce economic dependency.

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      Data and Trends

      Summary of ‘Demographic and human capital scenarios for the 21st century: 2018 assessment for 201 countries’

      Nicholas Gailey (corresponding author), Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/̈OAW, WU), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria

      Email: gailey@iiasa.ac.at

      Wolfgang Lutz, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/̈OAW,WU), Vienna, Austria

      Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
      Volume: 16, 2018, pages 221 - 234
      Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
      doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2018s221

      Abstract:

      In 2016, the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) agreed to form a partnership, establishing the Centre of Expertise on Population and Migration (CEPAM). The work presented here summarises the first results published by CEPAM. The results reveal clear momentum towards population ageing, and how migration has limited ability to influence the population structure of the EU, especially in the long-run. On the other hand, boosting labour force participation can nullify expected rises in the dependency ratio from population ageing. Globally, the findings show the future of population growth and socio-economic development will be determined by the expansion of education, particularly among girls in Africa. Scenarios of either rapid or stalled development illustrate a large range of possible futures for world population by 2100.

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      “Express transitioning” as a special case of the demographic transition

      Marc Luy (corresponding author), Vienna Institute of Demography of the Austrian Academy of Sciences, Welthandelsplatz 2/Level 2, 1020 Vienna, Austria

      E-mail: mail@marcluy.eu

      Bernhard Köppen, University of Koblenz-Landau, Universitätsstraße 1, 56070 Koblenz, Germany

      Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
      Volume: 16, 2018, pages 235 - 257
      Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
      doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2018s235

      Abstract:

      The theory of the “(first) demographic transition” (DT) still has considerable practical relevance in the field of population research. For instance, the DT serves as a conceptual model that underlies the UN’s population projections, and is central to the discussion around the so-called “demographic dividend”. Although it was first described 90 years ago, several questions related to the DT remain open or need verification. In particular, there is debate about the question of what the indispensable triggers of the DT are. Assumptions regarding the primary causes include increased education for women and related changes in values, as well as economic development, urbanisation, migration, and the democratisation process. This paper aims to contribute to DT-related research using an innovative research approach. Our study covers all 102 countries with populations that have undergone the DT between 1950 and 2010. Among these countries, we identified 25 populations that passed through this process at an exceptionally high tempo. We refer to this process as “express transitioning” (ET), and seek to identify its main determinants by comparing the ET populations with the populations of the other DT countries. The data we use are taken from the Wittgenstein Centre Data Explorer, the UN World Population Prospects, the UN World Urbanization Prospects, the World Bank Group, and the Center for Systematic Peace. Our analysis is based on rather descriptive methods, including ANOVA tests and bivariate correlations. We find that the urbanisation level and the education dynamics are most closely associated with ET, whereas other variables show no significant association with the ET process.

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