Department of Statistics, Computer Science, Applications, University of Florence
Department of Sociology, University of Vienna, Rooseveltplatz 2, 1090 Vienna, Austria
Department of Political and Social Sciences, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, C/ Ramon Trias
Researchers have hinted at intergenerational relationships (IR) as a possible explanation for cross-country differences in COVID-19 outcomes during the first wave of the pandemic. Our aim is to reflect on this link in a critical way. Despite higher prevalences of intergenerational co-residence/contacts are usually positively associated with COVID-19 outcomes at the country level, the opposite is generally true subnationally. While this inconsistent evidence does not demonstrate the absence of a causal link between IR and COVID-19 outcomes at the individual-level, we warn against simplistic interpretations of macro-level associations. We also note that IR are not only about physical contacts. Theoretically, different forms of IR may have causal effects of opposite sign on the diffusion of COVID-19. Policies should also consider that intergenerational ties are a source of support, which may favor compliance to the lockdown and “phase-2” restrictions and may buffer their negative consequences on mental health.
Keywords: Intergenerational contacts, Coresidence, Coronavirus, COVID-19, Grandchild care, Intergenerational relationships, Intergenerational ties
As the exposure to or infection with COVID-19 are differentiated according to an individual’s characteristics and ways of life, it is important to identify where the most vulnerable populations live, which subgroup of the population is more vulnerable, and what indicators they are most deprived of. This study reveals that some regions, such as those located in eastern Indonesia, might be in a worse situation due to the relatively higher deprivation rate on several risk factors. Another finding is some groups of the population are also found to be in a more unfortunate situation. They are elderlies, individuals from the female-headed household, and those whose head of household works in the informal sector. While deprivation rate on certain indicators might differ between each sub-group of population, overall, they are mainly deprived of improved sanitation and basic handwashing facility. In addition, this study finds positive association between total case and the socio-economic vulnerabilities on regional level.
Key word: socio-economic vulnerabilities, COVID-19, deprivation
Northeastern University, Boston, MA
This research builds upon the previous publications claiming that the male sex and advanced age populations are being more susceptible to COVID-19 death. Relations between sex and age gradients are explored analytically based upon the proposed log-polynomial regression model of COVID-19 mortality. This model enables mortality risk prediction at any arbitrary age, as well as derivation of several useful metrics either newly introduced, or known ones developed furthermore:
Modelling and simulations are conducted using the latest COVID-19 data from six major countries, selected among the most affected from COVID-19 mortality perspective with over 360,000 deaths as of October 2020. Patterns and trends revealed are concisely described with just a few representative numbers.
The Hebrew University of Jerusalem
I focus on the 36 OECD member states and examine country-level characteristics of the timing of the coronavirus outbreak, infection rate, and case-fatality rates (by day 100 after the onset of the pandemic in China). Data on dependent variables were culled from daily WHO reports and on the independent variables from official publications of major world organizations. I clustered the latter information under three rubrics—socio-demographic, risk behaviours, and economic and public health—and subjected the totality of the data to OLS regressions. Independent variables successfully explain much of the overall variance among OECD countries in infection (R2=49.9%) and mortality (R2=43.9%). Country economic status (GDP) and healthcare services (hospital beds) are significant in moderating the health outcomes of coronavirus infection. Nevertheless, the paramount determinants for restraining contagion and mortality are governmental measures. I am awaiting WHO data to run models for infection and case-fatality rates also for day 200.
Leonoor Gräler, Leonie Bremmers, Job van Exel, Pieter Bakx, Marianne Van Bochove
Erasmus School of Health Policy & Management, Erasmus University Rotterdam, the Netherlands
Informal caregivers were heavily affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper we identify which groups of informal caregivers are particularly vulnerable to the corona measures. In order to do so, we analyse changes in the objective and subjective burden, relating those to quality of life, for different characteristics of the caregiving situation, caregivers and care recipients. We collected self-administered data from informal caregivers in The Netherlands. Results show that differential living situations related to large significant changes in objective burden. The change in subjective burden was especially related to childcare responsibilities, being a woman, changes in the psychological and physical health of the care recipient, changes in psychological health of the informal caregiver and income. Childcare responsibilities during the pandemic were related to lower care related quality of life. Furthermore, changes in health of the care recipient positively related to both the care related quality of life, as well as income.
Yolanda Wilda Artati, Ghaida Nasria Azzahra
Badan Pusat Statistik - Statistics Indonesia
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) had caused devastating social and economical consequences throughout the world. Despite having one of the lowest testing rates in the world, by July 18th Indonesia had the highest confirmed COVID-19 cases in Southeast Asia. As the economic center and the most populous region of Indonesia, the pandemic had hit Java Island especially hard. In this paper, we try to identify socioeconomic factors associated with COVID-19 cases in Java at city/regency level. We tested for spatial autocorrelation in the data with Moran’s I statistic and found a positive significant spatial association, indicating that the increase of COVID-19 incidence in a region may lead to an increase of COVID-19 incidence in its nearby regions as well. Then, we proceeded to use a spatial autoregressive model, which revealed that unemployment rate, per capita expenditure, medical personnel density, and average household size to be significantly related to COVID-19 incidence rate.
Keywords COVID-19, Socioeconomic, Indonesia, Spatial Autoregressive Model, Spatial Lag
Corrado Bonifazi, Daniele De Rocchi, Frank Heins, Giacomo Panzeri
The excess mortality is due to deaths from COVID-19 and other causes linked to the delay in calling on health facilities. The lock-down let also to the decrease of mortality of some causes. The contribution is based on daily deaths data for the period 1st of January to 31st of August for the years 2015-2020 made available by ISTAT for all Italian municipalities. The number of deaths sharply increased at national level in the first half of March and reached a maximum the 27th. Data are analysed for sex and age groups and at the level of the Italian Local Labour Market Areas using Z-Scores. Excess mortality is concentrated in the older age groups, especially for men, and in Northern Italy. The organization of the regional health systems seems to influence mortality. The introduction of the lock-down and of social distancing measures helped to attenuate the impact of the pandemic.
In this study, we investigate the relationships between COVID-19 case rate and one geographic factor (distance from Wuhan), three demographic factors (population density, registered-resident population ratio, and urban-rural population ratio), and three socioeconomic factors (average income, urban-rural income ratio, and GDP per capita) in 92 counties of Hubei Province, China. Through linear regression modeling of log-log relationships, we investigated each factor’s association with COVID-19 case rate. Our results indicated that case rate was most strongly associated with a county’s distance from Wuhan (R-squared = 0.601). The best model resulted from the combined factors of distance, population density, registered-resident population ratio, and urban-rural population ratio (R-squared = 0.770). Counties located close to Wuhan tend to be more urban, are more densely populated, and have more people traveling in and out. The increased frequency of contact between people results in higher case rates of COVID-19.
Suzana Lović Obradović, Stefana Matović
Geographical institute „Jovan Cvijić“ Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts
The first identified case of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Serbia was recorded on March 6, 2020. The number of recorded cases varied not only over time but also with space. The virus, in addition to the medical, thus acquired a geographical dimension. Spatial analyzes gained the credibility for active participation in the research of its spread. The manuscript focuses on identifying potential risk areas of COVID-19 based on the spatial grouping of population demographic characteristics (population aged 65 and over) and the share of the infected by COVID-19 in the total population of the municipality in the period from 6 March to 14 April, 2020. We used optimized hotspot analysis, based on Gi* statistic. The analysis was conducted in ArcGIS Pro 2.5. The results showed that there is a match between the spatial grouping of the vulnerable population and the high number of cases, based on areas with increased risk were detected.
Ankita Srivastava, Vandana Tamrakar, Moradhvaj Dhakad, Saddaf Naaz Akhtar, Krishna Kumar, Tekchand Saini, Nagendra C, Nandita Saikia
Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India
This paper aimed to analyze the trajectory of COVID-19, using crowdsourced public data by lockdown/unlock phases; we estimated trends in new cases, period-prevalence rate (PPR), case recovery rate (CRR), and case fatality ratio (CFR) at sub-national level by various lockdown phases. 57% of age and sex information is missing. Cases increased exponentially from 10,917 to 7,26,89 over lockdowns. Average daily new cases (57 to 45,431), recovered (4 to 30,113), and deaths (1 to 727). PPR (0.04 to 76.28) and CRR (7.05 to 45.53) registered sharp increments, while CFR declined (1.76 to 1.10). There is substantial geographical variation in COVID-19 pandemic with concentration in some major cities and states. The disaggregated analysis of COVID-19 presented in this study provides a detailed understanding of the vast geographical disparity of the pandemic in India. However, a limited age-sex information in most COVID-19 patients limits the knowledge on the individual pattern of COVID-19 burden.
Keywords: COVID-19; India; Case Fatality Rate; Case Recovery Rate; Period Prevalence Rate; Geographical variation
University of Novi Sad
Paper brings demographic consideration of Covid-19 pandemic with aim to indicate major demographic determinants of Covid-19 spread in Serbia. In analysis was used data from the national Covid-19 database, where data about confirmed cases and reported deaths are available (the period from 6th March to 30th September 2020 was obtained). The estimated excess deaths in six month (April-September) show higher value than registered Covid-19 mortality. In March recorded number of mortality was lower than expected, which imply that Covid-19 did not have any impact on mortality level. In April about 180 excess deaths were estimated and the contribution of Covid-19 to this excess is about 86%. In other five months excess mortality was even higher, but contribution of Covid-19 disease is significantly lower.
In order to mitigate long-term effects of possible pandemic course, three demographic determinants were found as important drivers in Covid-19 transmission: densely populated urban areas, migration flows and age structure.
Key words: mortality, Covid-19 pandemic, demographic determinants, Serbia
Tchoubou Foba Habib
This article presents a comparison of the evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic between six countries: South Africa, Cameroon, Chad, France, Italy and the United States during the first 30 days of the pandemic.
Based on data from “Our Data World”. In order to facilitate the analysis of the data, an arbitrary origin has been set which is "Day 1" of "Country X" thus corresponding to the first day of the onset of Covid-19 in that country.
During the first 30 days of the pandemic, France, the United States and Chad had a roughly similar trend in linear progression. Italy, which had until then been part of this trend, stood out on its 23rd day of illness, when it began to show an increasingly exponential rate of the number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 on his territory. In addition, 30 days after the first onset of the disease, South Africa and Cameroon respectively recorded a cumulative number of patients 30 times and 10 times higher than those recorded in the United States and 10 times and 20 times higher than the one registered in France.
Hamid Rabiei, Mohammad Haddadi
Background: Many of the disparities existed between countries or communities regarding the impacts of virus can be explained by demographic factors. By taking these assumptions into account, this study aims to determine how much of existed disparities about CFR in Iran in comparison with other counties related to Iran's different age-structure and scrutinize COVID-19's demographic-related impacts on Iran's population.
Method: We assume that Iran's age-specific case facility rates are like Italy but with its own age-structure. We use the same strategy to ascertain the effects of COVID-19 on mortality. To comprehend the impact of COVID-19 on fertility, we review past studies in which possible repercussions of disasters for fertility had been analyzed.
Findings: Results show that the age-structure can explain a considerable proportion of variation in the CFR. Additionally, results indicate that there is a high correlation between high mortality in the present time and fertility decline in nine months later.
Nayara Julião, Raquel Guimarães
Brazil has the second most coronavirus cases and deaths worldwide after the United States. The evolution of cases and deaths opens the persistent social problems in Brazil that are reflected in the distribution of the contagion curve. In general, people with social and economic disadvantages are more likely to be exposed to the disease. We use nationally representative household survey data for studying the profile of the individuals whose symptoms related to COVID- 19/flu. We found inequalities by gender, race, and socioeconomic status in the distribution of symptoms.
American International University - Bangladesh (AIUB), Bangladesh.
Many South Asian countries are currently experiencing the sternness of the unprecedented COVID-19 despite collaborative efforts taken by the respective governments under the umbrella of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation. All of them have espoused obligatory policies including social distancing measures and lockdown to control the epidemic. In this paper, various demographic aspects of selected South Asian countries involving Bangladesh, Pakistan, India and Sri Lanka prior to the arrival of COVID-19 have been studied. Also, the trends of COVID-19 cases in these countries along with death rates, recovery rates, sex and age distributions of the detected positive cases have been analyzed. Furthermore, the probable demographic consequences of COVID-19 in these South Asian nations have been discussed. Data from a number of sources have been utilized for the analytical purpose of the study. Finally, some recommendations are given for the corresponding authorities working in relevant sectors in the aforesaid South Asian countries.
Timothy A. Ogunleye, Kehinde K. Adesanya, S. Gbolahan Salako, M. Y. Lawal-Sebioniga,
A. Folashade Alade, A. P. Bamidele
The incidence of COVID-19 has generated a lot of dreadful medical challenges as a result of its hyperendemic effects within human population. It's first spotted in Nigeria on 27th day of February, 2020 through a foreigner from Italy, and since then Nigeria has joined many other countries of the world in battling with COVID-19 pandemic. However, descriptive statistics were used to analyse the demographic aspects of the data sets while the inferential statistics was used to evaluate the trends of occurrence of the pandemic. Data sets were sourced from Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC). In this paper, the epidemiological patterns comprising time, place, and personal characteristics of COVID-19 pandemic were studied. Statistical relationships of the occurrence of COVID-19's regional distribution with respect to some demographic factors were extensively explored, and ways to curtail the pathogenicity of this virus were carefully suggested. Finally, the paper provides a basis for planning, provision, and evaluation of health services and laboratories, which would serve as a significant planning tool for Nigerian governments in preparedness for related medical challenge in the nearest future.
Keywords: COVID-19, demographic factors, epidemiological patterns, NCDC, Nigeria.
Robbie M Parks
The Earth Institute, Columbia University
Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford
COVID-19 has changed our idea of normal. These unprecedented, stressful times affect us all – some of us more than others. Fear and anxiety over a little-known disease with a glimpse of hope for a vaccine sometime soon, global economic downturn, along with feelings of loneliness and emotional exhaustion due to lockdowns, can leave everyone mentally exhausted; vulnerable populations and migrants even more so. Here we explore the how COVID-19 complicates the journey for climate migrants through a case study approach
Giorgio Di Gessa, Paola Zaninotto
The COVID-19 pandemic and the public health response to it could have large impacts on health and social engagement, particularly among older people and those with multiple long-term health conditions (multimorbidity) who are at highest risk from COVID-19. Using data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing COVID-19 sub-study (June/July 2020) we describe health consequences among older individuals with multimorbidity; and the impact on caring and volunteering. Relative to members without multimorbidity, respondents with multimorbidity were more likely to report poor sleep quality, eating less, unhealthy behaviours (i.e. less physical activity and more sitting time) and to access social and health care services. The level of social engagement also changed during the pandemic, with care provision more likely to have increased or stayed the same and volunteering more likely to have decreased or stopped. Policymakers should acknowledge that these experiences could negatively influence disease progression and well-being in old age.
Lydia Xourafi - semion ψ – social creative actions NPO
Anastasia Kostaki - Athens University of Economics and Business - Department of Statistics
The present study is exploring the psychosocial impact of Covid-19 pandemic in Greek population during the period of lockdown aiming in the examination of depression, anxiety and stress scores but also in the investigation of possible factors related to mental health conditions during the lockdown period. A total of 911 adults participated in an online survey by completing a self-reporting questionnaire including demographic questions, DASS42 (anxiety, stress, depression scale), ‘Integrative Worldview Framework’ (IWF) and open-ended questions. Statistical analysis revealed mild increased stress levels in female participants (p=0.063) while gender differences were significant in depression and anxiety scores as well. Age and education level appeared to be important vulnerability factors for younger ages and for individuals with tertiary education level. Moreover, individuals with traditional worldviews appear to be somewhat more vulnerable than others to stress symptoms (p=0.060) , while those with modern worldviews exhibit significantly lower DASS42 scores in all three categories (p=0.035, 0.061, and 0.007). Keywords: Psychosocial impact, depression, anxiety, worldviews, lockdown, COVID-19, Greece
Poh Lin Tan, Jeremy Lim
COVID-19 lockdowns have affected mental well-being due to physical confinement, disturbed routines and caregiving burdens. Not much is known about the role of residential crowding on stress and relationships in the context of densely populated urban settings. Intuitively, living in close quarters may increase tensions but may also be conducive for intimacy growth. Using survey data on 399 married women during the COVID-19 lockdown in Singapore, this paper tests the hypothesis that housing crowdedness is associated with greater deterioration of family relationships. Multinominal logistic regression results suggest that women living in smaller homes were more likely to report worsened relationships with other adults, i.e. husbands and parents, but improved relationships with children. When household size is taken into consideration, women living in more spacious homes are more likely to report better relationships with children. The evidence suggests that housing crowdedness has a negative impact on family well-being during lockdowns.
Cynthia Boruchowicz, Susan W. Parker, Lindsay Robbins
We study the impact of school closures product of the COVID-19 pandemic on time use of Mexican teenagers between 12 and 18 years old in three activities: studies, work outside the household and household chores. We use micro level data from the 2019 and 2020 National Occupation and Employment Survey (ENOE) and the Phone Occupation and Employment Survey (ETOE) of April-May 2020. We find that compared to what was observed before the pandemic, after schools closed the time adolescents spent studying decreased by 30%. Although the reduction observed is similar for men and women, it is substantially greater for rural teenagers compared to urban ones, and for those in high school compared to middle school. We also observe that the hours dedicated to work outside the home decreased substantially with the onset of the pandemic, mainly for men, but that there is no much difference in household chores.
Mălina Voicu, Simona Maria Stănescu
Research Institute for Quality of Life, Romanian Academy
Democracy seems to be better prepared for facing the health emergency, because of its good health outcomes and the ability to cope with disasters, democratic governed societies are vulnerable in face of COVID because of longer life expectancy of their public that plays against democracy, as the empirical evidence shows the disease hit mainly old adults. This paper inquires whether democratic societies still have an advantage in dealing with COVID crisis, proving with empirical data that COVID mortality is lower in highly advanced democracies.
Interview with Mălina Voicu (in German)
In Spain and France the COVID-19 pandemic has been controlled, since number of deaths has stabilized at approximately 31 and 30 thousand deaths respectively, and both needed 21 weeks to achieve control. But in Mexico and Colombia the pandemic is not yet under control, as the number of deaths continues to growing, thus for Mexico and Colombia arise questions: When will the pandemic be controlled? And what is the maximum which will stabilize the pandemic? The main results show that mortality in Mexico will most likely stabilize below 98,023 deaths. In Colombia, it will stabilize below 31,821 probably. Other results indicate that Mexico will need 55 weeks to control the pandemic, while Colombia will need 60 ones. Knowing the maximum number of deaths and duration of the pandemic will make possible to calculate cost due to the pandemic, and so, design public policies for attenuate the economic effect.
Hiroshi Ono - Hitotsubashi University Business School
Takeshi Mori - Hitotsubashi University Business School and Nomura Research Institute
We examine patterns of telework adoption within and across countries, and at two different time periods, before and after the Covid-19 pandemic. Our empirical analysis is made possible through comparable individual-level microdata on telework use in eight countries: U.S., U.K., Germany, Italy, Sweden, China, South Korea and Japan. Diffusion of telework is unevenly distributed with respect to demographics and socio-economic status, especially during the early phase of diffusion, with younger persons and higher income individuals gaining greater access than their counterparts. More importantly, we confirm that timing of telecom use has lingering effects on satisfaction and other work outcomes. Distinguishing the timing of telework adoption before and after Covid-19 is substantively important, because the former did so by choice, but the latter may not have. Satisfaction and perceived productivity gains were significantly higher among those who were using telework before than those who started after Covid-19.
Samare Huls, Ayesha Sajjad, Tim Kanters, Werner Brouwer, Job van Exel, Leona Hakkaart-van Roijen
This study estimated changes in productivity related to working from home during COVID-19 pandemic in the Netherlands. At the end of April, a sample of Dutch employees reported the number of hours paid and unpaid work per week before and during the lockdown. The mean total hours of paid work per employee per week decreased from 35.23 hours (SD=5.39) to 32.74 hours (SD=8.69). Productivity losses in terms of quantity and quality occurred in 33.4% and 15.5% of respondents, respectively. Equal productivity for quantity of work was reported by 43.2% of the sample and for quality by 73.8%. More time was spent on all types of unpaid work, mostly on childcare (Mean Difference (MD)=1.40 hours, SD=6.16) and children’s’ education (MD=1.39 hours, SD=3.38). This study shows how the Dutch working population reallocated time during the COVID-19 induced lock-down. Less time was spent on paid work, more time was spent on unpaid work.
David A. Sánchez-Páez
COVID-19 pandemic has strongly affected all Europe although there are differences by country. Income inequality may exacerbate vulnerabilities when facing the COVID-19 pandemic. Evidence from developing countries shows that income inequality explains differences in infection-death rates, but little evidence exists from developed countries. Our objective is to identify whether there is an association between Gini index and the number of cases and deaths during the COVID-19 first wave in Europe. We estimate bivariate and multivariate models using Poisson regressions. Results show the relative risk of contagion increases by 1.07 (p-value=<1e-10) and of death by 1.03 (p- value=<1e-10) for every unit of increase in the Gini index. After including controls, the relative risk of infections decreases to 1.05 (p-value=<1e-10), while in the case of mortality, the association becomes stronger and the relative risk increases to 1.10 (p-value=<1e-10). Those countries with more unequal income distributions are more vulnerable to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Jeremaiah M. Opiniano, Alvin P. Ang
The COVID-19 pandemic provided dramatic impacts unto migrants and the countries that send and receive them. These impacts are felt visibly in the Philippines, an origin country where international migration has cemented its place in existing population-and-development (Pop-Dev) processes. Unfortunately, thousands of current and returning overseas Filipinos have contracted SARS-CoV-2 —and repatriation and return migration have unwittingly caused the continued transmission of the coronavirus within Philippine borders.
This paper provides a running account and Pop-Dev analysis of how the pandemic affected the economic and demographic benefits of international migration to the Philippines. The projected new normal will pose numerous challenges unto Filipino migrants / migrant workers, the institutions involved in migration management, and to the economic benefits that this population process has brought the Philippines during normal times. Short-term forecasts also reveal challenges on how affected overseas Filipinos and their motherland will regain their economic bearings back.
Jeremy Lim, Poh Lin Tan
Weathering the Storm: The Effects of Working from Home and Income Loss on Family Relationships During COVID-19. The large-scale move towards working from home caused by the pandemic may alleviate work-life conflicts and improve family relationships, especially for working mothers. On the other hand, income loss due to economic disruptions may cause stress and negatively affect spousal and parent-child relationships. This paper tests these hypotheses using longitudinal data on 341 heterosexual married couples with children aged below 18 in Singapore. Results suggest that married women were significantly more likely to report worsened spousal relationships if they were working from home, but more likely to report improved relationships if husbands were working from home. Neither parent’s work from home status was significantly associated with changes in mother-child relationships. Women’s income loss was associated with improved relationships with their children. Overall, the results point to tensions between mothers’ roles at home and in the workplace, with working mothers shouldering a greater proportion of care burdens when working from home.