AGENTA Final Conference

Wittgenstein Centre Conference 2017

AGENTA Final Conference: Economic Consequences of Population Ageing and Intergenerational Equity

including

National (Time) Transfer Accounts Workshop

Vienna, 20 - 22 November 2017

The European population is ageing at a rapid pace: the old-age dependency ratio in 28 EU countries will increase from 31 per cent today to 50 per cent by year 2040. Among the institutions most affected by demographic change is the public transfer system, which largely redistributes from the employed population to the retired elderly generation. There are concerns that the increasing share of elderly persons relative to the employed would result in a large burden on the young generations and puts the elderly population at the risk of poverty. Substantial research seeks to understand and quantify the consequences of ageing for public transfers and provide suggestions how to adapt the transfer systems to demographic changes. The guiding principle of the AGENTA project is to explain and forecast public transfers in Europe and provide evidence-based policy proposals to ensure the long-term sustainability of public finances. In the final conference, we shall bring researchers, stakeholders and policy-makers together to discuss the challenges and to develop strategies toward adapting the intergenerational transfer systems to demographic changes.

Monday, 20 November 2017
08:30	Registration
09:00–09:20	Conference Opening Wolfgang Lutz,Director of Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital Alexia Fürnkranz-Prskawetz,Director Vienna Institute of Demography, Coordinator of AGENTA
09:20-10:20	Keynote Chair: Alexia Fürnkranz-Prskawetz *Ronald Lee* Macroeconomic Consequences of Population Aging: A Simple Model with NTA Inputs
10:20–12:50	Session: NTA/NTTA data Chair: Bernhard Hammer
10:20	Lili Vargha, Gretchen Donehower The quantity-quality tradeoff: A cross-country comparison of market and nonmarket investments per child in relation to fertility
10:45	*Setsuya Fukuda, Itaru Sato, Kazuyuki Terada, Takahiro Toriyabe, Rikiya Matukura and Hidehiko Ichimura* Household production and consumption over the life cycle in Japan: NTA and NTTA summaries by gender from 1999 to 2014
11:10-11:35	Coffee Break
11:35	Patrick Georges, Marcel Mérette, Julien Navaux Lifecycle deficit in Canada: A longitudinal assessment
12:00	*Hippolyte d’Albis*, Ikpidi Badji, Carole Bonnet, Xavier Chojnicki, Najat El Mekkaoui, Angela Greulich, Jérôme Hubert, Julien Navaux, Jacques Pelletan Who pays for the consumption of young and old?
12:25	Ana Šeme, Lili Vargha, Tanja Istenič, Jože Sambt Historical aspect of unpaid work in Europe: NTTA results by age and gender
12:50–13:05	Poster Session I: Highlights of 6 posters (2 min per poster) Chair: Alexia Fürnkranz-Prskawetz - *Leen De Kort* Caring for carers: A comparative study of the association between parents’ care needs and their daughter’s mental health in the different European welfare states - *Persida Cica Tofoska Apostolova, Tanja Istenič, Jože Sambt The economic behaviour of immigrants versus natives over the life cycle - Allison Geerts, Dimitri Mortelmans, Marina Zannella Pathways into care: The family and work careers of informal caregivers - Tanja Istenič, Elisenda Rentería, Jože Sambt, Guadalupe Souto* What is the contribution of the educational expansion on the demographic dividend in Europe? - *Sahanogullari Nazli* Incorporating gender and time use into NTA Turkey - *Sonja Spitzer, Bernhard Hammer* Economic wellbeing in later life: A European comparison
13:05-14:30	*POSTER SESSION & LUNCH BREAK* Time to discuss with the 6 poster presenters during lunch
14:30–16:10	Session: Public revenues and expenditures in a demographic context (part I) Chair: Kirk Scott
14:30	*Markus Knell* Outline of a sustainable and fair pension system
14:55	*Agnieszka Chlon-Dominczak*, Anita Abramowska-Kmon, Irena E. Kotowska, Wojciech Latkowski Welfare state and the inter-generational redistribution of public consumption and public transfers in the EU countries
15:20	*Tanja* *Istenič*, Lili Vargha, Jože Sambt Is there a relation between welfare and inter-age reallocation regimes?
15:45	*Meritxell Solé* Redistributive effects of public education and pensions over the life cycle
16:10-16:35	Coffee Break
16:35–17:50	Session: Public revenues and expenditures in a demographic context (part II) Chair: Tommy Bengtsson
16:35	Oliwia Komada, Krzysztof Makarski, Joanna Tyrowicz Welfare effects of fiscal policy in reforming the pension system
17:00	*Miguel Sánchez-Romero,Gemma Abio, Alexia Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Gustav Öberg, Concepció Patxot, Jože Sambt, Meritxell Solé Juvés, Guadalupe Souto, Lili Vargha* The sustainability of the welfare state: A historical cohort analysis
17:25	Krzysztof Makarski, Joanna Tyrowicz Political (in)stability of social security reform
17:50	*End of presentations of day one*
19:00	Evening reception at the Wiener Rathauskeller

Tuesday, 21 November 2017
09:00–10:40	Session: Intergenerational redistribution of resources Chair: Alexia Fürnkranz-Prskawetz
09:00	*Robert I. Gal*, Pieter Vanhuysse, Lili Vargha Pro-elderly welfare states within child-oriented societies
09:25	*David McCarthy*, James Sefton, Ronald Lee, JožeSambt Generational wealth accounts
09:50	*Denys Dukhovnov*, Emilio Zagheni, Joan Ryan Transfers of care time in the United States: The role of cultural and demographic differentials on intergenerational flows by age and sex
10:15	*Gianko Michailidis*, ConcepcióPatxot Political economy of the intergenerational exchange: An empirical application
10:40-11:05	Coffee Break
11:05–12:45	Session: Measures and indicators for intergenerational transfers: Sustainability and fairness Chair: Robert I. Gál
11:05	Giorgos Papadomichelakis, Concepció Patxot, Elisenda Rentería, Meritxell Solé, Guadalupe Souto The unequal impact of the crisis by age: An analysis based on National Transfer Accounts
11:30	*Bernhard Hammer*, Alexia Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Lili Vargha, Tanja Istenič, Robert I. Gál Underinvestment in human capital across Europe and its consequences for the sustainability of public transfers
11:55	*Marina Zannella,* Alessandra De Rose Paid work, Home Production and Leisure in Times of Recession: Evidence from Italy
12:20	*Edward Palmer,* Yuwei Zhao de Gosson de Varennes The Importance of Unbiased Estimation of Life Expectancy and Heterogeneity in Life expectancy for Financial Stability and Fair Outcomes in DC Pension Schemes
12:45–13:00	Poster Session II: Highlights of 6 posters (2 min per poster) Chair: Alexia Fürnkranz-Prskawetz - *Montserrat Botey*, Guillaume Chapelle Non taxation of imputed rent: A gift to scrooge? - Daniela Hochfellner, Mary Hamman, Pia Homrighausen Mom and dad we’re broke, can you help?: A comparative study of financial transfers within families before and after the Great Recession - *Julian Schmied*, Christian Dudel How much retirement income is needed to maintain the living standard - Johannes Klotz, Tobias Göllner Comparative European figures on socio-economic differences in mortality based on harmonized sample data - *Naomi Biegel*, Julie Maes Karel Neels Changing educational attainment in the Belgian population: A multistate cohort-component projection - *Agnieszka Chlon-Dominczak*, Pawel Strzelecki, Wojciech Latkowski Pension reforms or consequences of the economic crisis? Measuring the changes of pension incomes in Selected EU countries using APC approach
13:00-14:30	*POSTER SESSION & LUNCH BREAK* Time to discuss with the 6 poster presenters
14:30-16:10	Session: Labour force participation and retirement (part I) Chair: Concepció Patxot
14:30	*Haodong Qi*, Tommy Bengtsson Human capital development and working life prolongation
14:55	Gerard J. van den Berg, Pia Homrighausen, Gesine Stephan Targeted wage support for older unemployed workers: An evaluation combining survey and register data from a randomized controlled field experiment
16:10-16-35	Coffee Break
16:10-17:25	Session: Labour force participation and retirement (part II) Chair: Agnieszka Chlon-Dominczak
16:10	*Daniel Kemptner*, Peter Haan, Holger Lüthen The increasing longevity gap by lifetime earnings and its distributional implications
16:35	*Bénédicte H. Apouey*, Cahit Guven, Claudia Senik Retirement and unexpected health shocks
17:00	*Roman Raab* Retirement and informal care-giving: Behavioral patterns among older workers
17:25	*End of day two*

National (Time) Transfer Accounts Workshop

Wednesday, 22 November 2017
09:00	Welcoming remarks
09:05	*Bernhard Hammer* European National Transfer Accounts (NTA) and the European System of National Accounts
09:45	*Tanja Istenič* The NTA age-patterns of production, transfers, consumption and saving
10:30-10:50	Coffee Break
10:50	*Lili Vargha* National Time Transfer Accounts (NTTA): Household satellite accounts by age and gender
11:30	*Bernhard Hammer,* *Jože Sambt, Miguel Sánchez-Romero*, Lili Vargha The AGENTA data explorer and selected applications of NTA and NTTA
12:30-13:45	Lunch Break
13:45	*Tanja Istenič, Bernhard Hammer, Lili Vargha* A close look behind the curtain: Details and potential difficulties with NTA and NTTA
14:45	Measuring population ageing Chair: Róbert Iván Gál Contributions by *Hippolyte d’Albis, Alexia Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Róbert Iván Gál, Bernhard Hammer* Open discussion
16:00	Closing

This project has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no 613247.

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After scientific review, selected conference contributions are published in the thematic issue of the Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2019:

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