Migration makes the difference
Migration makes the difference to the overall population change in most European countries. The map shows countries in which population would decline due to emigration by 2030 (blue) and countries which would gain population by immigration (orange). The change is relative to the population size as of 2013 (Population 2030 with migration – Population 2030 zero migration / Population 2013). Migration plays a crucial role for the future population change and it can tame or amplify the effects of natural population change (difference between births and deaths). This means that in some countries, such as Spain or Italy for example, expected immigration is most likely to compensate for low fertility which would otherwise lead to population decline. In contrast, the combination of low fertility and emigration will lead to population losses in some eastern European countries such as Latvia, Romania or Bulgaria.