Special issue on:

 

Fertility across time and space


Guest editors: Tomáš Sobotka, Aiva Jasilioniene, Kryštof Zeman and Diego Ramiro Fariñas

Managing editor: Maria Winkler-Dworak



Debate


International political economy and future fertility trends


Moving out the parental home and partnership formation as social determinants of low fertility

  • Albert Esteve, Diederik Boertien, Ryohei Mogi, and Mariona Lozano
    Full text | Details

“Catching up with ‘compressed modernity” - How the values of Millennials and Gen-Z’ers could reframe gender equity and demographic systems


Future fertility trends are shaped at the intersection of gender and social stratification


Fertility will be determined by changing ideal family size and the empowerment to reach these targets


Marriage will (continue to) be the key to the future of fertility in Japan and East Asia


    Research Articles


    Laggards in the global fertility transition


    Projecting future births with fertility differentials reflecting women's educational and migrant characteristics


    Decomposing changes in first birth trends: Quantum, timing, or variance


    Details & Abstracts


    Debate


    International political economy and future fertility trends

    Alicia Adsera (corresponding author), Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, USA

    Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
    Volume: 18, 2020, pages (tbd - online-first)
    Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
    doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2020.deb01

    cite as:
    Adsera, A. 2020. "International political economy and future fertility trends" Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020 (Volume 18): (tbd - online-first).

    first online: 08.07.2020

    PDF


     

    Moving out the parental home and partnership formation as social determinants of low fertility

    Albert Esteve (corresponding author), Centre d’Estudis Demogràfics,  Barcelona, Spain
    Diederik Boertien, Centre d’Estudis Demogràfics,  Barcelona, Spain
    Ryohei Mogi, Centre d’Estudis Demogràfics,  Barcelona, Spain
    Mariona Lozano, Centre d’Estudis Demogràfics,  Barcelona, Spain

    Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
    Volume: 18, 2020, pages (tbd - online-first)
    Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
    doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2020.deb02

    cite as:
    Esteve, A., Boertien, D., Mogi, R., Lozano, M. 2020. "Moving out the parental home and partnership formation as social determinants of low fertility" Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020 (Volume 18): (tbd - online-first).

    first online: 08.07.2020

    PDF


     

    “Catching up with ‘compressed modernity’” - How the values of Millennials and Gen-Z’ers could reframe gender equity and demographic systems

    Stuart Gietel-Basten, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, People’s Republic of China

    Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
    Volume: 18, 2020, pages
    Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
    doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2020.deb03

    cite as:
    Gietel-Basten, S. 2020. "“Catching up with ‘compressed modernity’” - How the values of Millennials and Gen-Z’ers could reframe gender equity and demographic systems" Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020 (Volume 18):

    first online: 30.07.2020

     

    PDF


     

    Future fertility trends are shaped in the intersection of gender and social stratification

    Trude Lappegård, University of Oslo, Norway

    Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
    Volume: 18, 2020, pages
    Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
    doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2020.deb04

    cite as:
    Lappegård, T. 2020. "Future fertility trends are shaped in the intersection of gender and social stratification" Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020 (Volume 18):

    first online: 22.07.2020

    PDF


     

    Fertility will be determined by changing ideal family size and the empowerment to reach these targets

    Wolfgang Lutz, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University ofVienna), Department of Demography, University of Vienna, World Population Program (IIASA),Vienna Institute of Demography (VID), Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna, Austria

    Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
    Volume: 18, 2020, pages
    Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
    doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2020.deb06

    cite as:
    Lutz, W. 2020. "Fertility will be determined by changing ideal family size and the empowerment to reach these targets" Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020 (Volume 18):

    first online: 04.08.2020

     

    PDF


     

    Marriage will (continue to) be the key to the future of fertility in Japan and East Asia

    Setsuya Fukuda, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Tokyo, Japan

    Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
    Volume: 18, 2020, pages
    Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
    doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2020.deb07

    cite as:
    Fukuda, S. 2020. "Marriage will (continue to) be the key to the future of fertility in Japan and East Asia" Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020 (Volume 18):

    first online: 22.07.2020

    PDF

     

     


    Research articles


    Laggards in the global fertility transition

    David Shapiro (corresponding author), Pennsylvania State University, Santa Fe, USA
    Andrew Hinde, Department of Social Statistics and Demography, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK

    Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
    Volume: 18, 2020, pages (tbd - online-first)
    Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
    doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2020.res01

    cite as:
    Shapiro, D., Hinde, A. 2020. "Laggards in the global fertility transition" Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020 (Volume 18): (tbd - online-first).

    first online: 09.07.2020

    Abstract:

    Between the early 1950s and the present, the global fertility transition has been nearly universal in the developing world. However, as of 2017, two countries out of the 190 countries for which the United Nations provides fertility estimates had not yet met the conventional criterion for establishing the onset of the fertility transition (a decline of at least 10 per cent from peak fertility), and another five countries did so only very recently. These are the laggards in the global fertility transition. The countries are all in sub-Saharan Africa: Chad, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, The Gambia, Mali, Niger, and Somalia. This paper first reviews the fertility history of these seven countries, and subsequently provides data on the timing and pace of the global fertility transition in the four major developing regions: Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, Northern Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa. It then explores potential reasons for the slow emergence of fertility decline in each country. The paper concludes with a discussion of each country’s prospects for fertility decline, which generally are weaker than those in the projections of the United Nations.

    PDF


     

    Projecting future births with fertility differentials reflecting women's educational and migrant characteristics

    Michaela Potančoková (corresponding author), Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University ofVienna), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria, formerly at the Joint Research Centre – European Commission
    Guillaume Marois, Asian Demographic Research Institute (ADRI), Shanghai University, Baoshan, Shanghai, China, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University ofVienna), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria

    Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
    Volume: 18, 2020, pages
    Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
    doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2020.res02

    cite as:
    Potančoková, M., Marois, G. 2020. "Projecting future births with fertility differentials reflecting women's educational and migrant characteristics" Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020 (Volume 18): .

    first online: 04.08.2020

    Abstract:

    Building on the well-established knowledge on fertility differentials by educationand nativity/migration status, we employ microsimulation modelling to demonstratethe effect of accounting for such differences in population projections. We considerfertility differentials by educational attainment, enrolment in full-time education,region of birth, age at immigration, and duration of stay in the host country, whichwe introduce step-wise into the microsimulation model for the EU28. Results onprojected TFRs and births by 2060 illustrate the importance of accounting forseveral sources of population heterogeneity. In the context of future educationalexpansion, modelling education differentials for students and for women withcompleted education is needed to capture the postponement effect of education onchildbearing. Future migration assumptions that include migrant fertility differen-tials lead to widely varying projected numbers of future births. At fixed fertilitydifferentials and a fixed composition of immigrant flows, the net effect of immigrantfertility on the overall TFR in the EU28 is projected to increase from the estimated0.12 in 2015–2019 to 0.17 in 2055–59 in the scenario with baseline migration, andto 0.25 in 2055–59 in the scenario with doubled migration.

    Keywords:population projection; microsimulation; fertility; education; immigrants

     

    PDF


     

    Decomposing changes in first birth trends: Quantum, timing, or variance

    Ryohei Mogi (corresponding author), Center for Demographic Studies, Barcelona, Spain
    Michael Dominic del Mundo, Population Institute, University of the Philippines, Philippines

    Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
    Volume: 18, 2020, pages
    Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
    doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2020.res03

    cite as:
    Mogi, R., del Mundo, M.D.,  2020. "Decomposing changes in first birth trends: Quantum, timing, or variance" Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020 (Volume 18): .

    first online: 22.07.2020

    Abstract:

    In high-income countries, women and men born since the 1940s have delayed the birth of their first child, more of them have remained childless, and the timing of the first birth has become more diverse in these cohorts. The interaction between these three trends makes the research on first birth patterns more complex. This study has two main aims: (1) we introduce an alternative index, Expected Years Without Children (EYWC), to quantify changes in first birth behaviour; and (2) we decompose the changes in EYWC over time into three effects: remaining permanently childless, postponing the first birth, and the expansion of the standard deviation of the mean age at first birth. Using data from the Human Fertility Database, EYWC is calculated to illustrate time trends among women born in the 1910s–1960s in eight countries with longer series of data on cohort first birth trends: Canada, the Czech Republic, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Sweden, and the United States. Our decomposition shows that the changes in EYWC are mainly attributable to postponement in North America and northern Europe, whereas these changes are largely due to increasing shares of women remaining childless in Japan and Portugal.

    Keywords: childlessness; postponement of first birth; decomposition method; Coale-McNeil model; life table

    PDF

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