Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2018


© - Vienna Institute of Demography

 

Special issue on:

Broadening demographic horizons

 


Guest editors: Alexia Prskawetz, Sergei Scherbov und Warren Sanderson

Managing editor: Maria Winkler-Dworak

Introduction

Broadening demographic horizons: demographic studies beyond age and gender

  • Alexia Prskawetz, Warren Sanderson and Sergei Scherbov
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Demographic Debate


Are there Principles of Demography? A search for Unifying (and Hegemonic) Themes

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Can Taylor's law of fluctuating scaling and its relatives help select more plausible multi-regional population forecasts?

  • Joel E. Cohen, Helge Brunborg, Meng Xu
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Probabilistic demographic forecasts

  • Nico Keilman
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Education and demography: A review

  • Philip Rees
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Research Articles


Population Dynamics and Human Capital in Muslim Countries

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Survival Inequalities and Redistribution in the Italian Pension System

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Does Education matter? – Economic Dependency Ratios by Education

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Multistate Projections of Australia’s Indigenous Population: Interacting Area Group and Identification Status Change

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  • James Raymer, Yanlin Shi, James O'Donnell and Nicholas Biddle
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The End of Population Ageing in the More Developed World

  • Warren Sanderson, Sergei Scherbov, Patrick Gerland
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From intentions to births: Paths of realization in a multi-dimensional life course perspective

  • Maria Rita Testa and Francesco Rampazzo
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Towards causal forecasting of international migration

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Data & Trends


"Express Transitioning" as Special Case of the Demographic Transition

  • Marc Luy and Bernhard Köppen
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Summary of "Demographiy and human capital scenarios for the 21st century"

  • Nicholas Gailey, Wolfgang Lutz
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Details & Abstracts


Demographic debate

Are there principles of demography? A search for unifying (and hegemonic) themes

William P. Butz, Senior Research Scholar, World Population Program, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria
Email: william.butz@icloud.com

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research

Volume: 16, 2018, pages NYK
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi:

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Research articles

Multistate Projections of Australia’s Indigenous Population: Interacting Area Group and Identification Status Change

James Raymer (corresponding author), School of Demography, Research School of Social Sciences,
Australian National University, 9 Fellows Road, Acton ACT 2601, Australia
Email: james.raymer@anu.edu.au
Yanlin Shi, Department of Actuarial Studies and Business Analytics, Macquarie University, Australia
James O’Donnell, School of Demography, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University, Australia
Nicholas Biddle, Centre for Aboriginal Economic Policy Research and ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University, Australia

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 16, 2018, pages NYK
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi:

Abstract:

In this paper, we develop a multistate projection model that allows the Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander (Indigenous) population to move between area classifications and Indigenous self-identification statuses. We combine data from the Australian Census Longitudinal Dataset and the 2011 census to estimate the transitions between 2006 and 2011. This information is then included in a multistate population projection model to illustrate the effects of migration and identification change over time in relation to natural increase (i.e., births – deaths). The results show how patterns of identification change differ by both age and type of migration, and how migration and identification change affect patterns of Indigenous population change across major cities, regional areas, and remote areas in Australia.

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Survival Inequalities and Redistribution in the Italian Pension System

Graziella Caselli (corresponding author), Sapienza University of Rome, Department of Statistical Sciences, Viale Regina Elena 295, 00161, Rome, Italy
Email: graziella.caselli@uniroma1.it
Rosa Maria Lipsi, Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT), Italy

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 16, 2018, pages NYK
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi:

Abstract:

The public pension system in Italy is a defined contribution scheme based on the principle of actuarial fairness. The pension annuity is calculated starting from capitalised value and the Legislated Conversion Factors (LCFs) for each retirement age. The demographic parameters used by legislators in computing the LCFs are the survival probabilities of an average Italian, irrespective of gender or any characteristic except age. The aim of this paper is to analyse the impact of the differences in survival between men and women, and between individuals with different educational levels, on the calculation of the pension annuity, starting from the specific Conversion Factors (CFs). The gap between the LCFs and the factors obtained by allowing for differential survival across gender and socio-demographic groups (CFs) gives us a means of making a quantitative assessment of the implicit redistributive impacts of the annuity redistribution from individuals with a lower life expectancy to individuals with a higher life expectancy.

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Towards causal forecasting of international migration

Frans Willekens, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), Lange Houtstraat 19, NL-2511 CV The Hague, The Netherlands
Email: willekens@nidi.n

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 16, 2018, pages XX - XX
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi:

Abstract:

International migration is difficult to predict because of uncertainties. The identification of sources of uncertainty and the measurement and modelling of uncertainties are necessary, but they are not sufficient. Uncertainties should be reduced by accounting for the heterogeneity of migrants, the reasons why some people leave their country while most stay, and the causal mechanisms that lead to those choices. International migration takes place within a context of globalisation, technological change, growing interest in migration governance, and the emergence of a migration industry. Young people are more likely than older people to respond to these contextual factors, as they are better informed, have greater self-efficacy, and are more likely to have a social network abroad than previous generations. My aim in this paper is to present ideas for the causal forecasting of migration. Wolfgang Lutz’s demographic theory of socioeconomic change is a good point of departure. The cohort-replacement mechanism, which is central to Lutz’s theory, is extended to account for cohort heterogeneity, life-cycle transitions, and learning. I close the paper by concluding that the time has come to explore the causal mechanisms underlying migration, and to make optimal use of that knowledge to improve migration forecasts.

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Population dynamics and human capital in Muslim countries

Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi (corresponding author), Department of Demography, Faculty of Social Sciences, Jalal Al Ahmad Avenue, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran; and Professorial Fellow, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, Medicine, Dentistry and Health Sciences,The University of Melbourne, Australia
Email: mabbasi@ut.ac.ir

Gavin W. Jones, Emeritus Professor, Australian National University, ACT, Canberra, Australia

 

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 16, 2018, pages NKY
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi:

Abstract:

Muslim countries have experienced unprecedented demographic and social transitions in recent decades. The population dynamics in most of these countries have led to the emergence of a young age structure. High-fertility countries such as Yemen and Afghanistan have the highest proportions of children in the population; while countries like Indonesia and Bangladesh, where fertility is approaching replacement level, have relatively high proportions of youth (aged 15-29) in the population. In Iran, fertility is below replacement level. Education, as an indicator of human capital, has also been improving in all Muslim countries, albeit with considerable variation. These dynamics are creating opportunities and challenges related to the economy, wealth distribution, health, political governance, and socio-economic structures. National development policies should emphasise human development to enable countries to take advantage of these emerging population trends, and to ensure that sustainable development is achieved at all levels. But given the cultural and socio-economic diversity among Islamic countries, context-specific analysis is needed to provide us with a deeper understanding of these population issues, as well as of the pathways to achieving population policy objectives

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Does education matter? – economic dependency ratios by education

Alexia Prskawetz (corresponding author), Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital, Welthandelsplatz 2/Level 2, 1020 Vienna, Austria and TU Wien, Austria
Email: afp@econ.tuwien.ac.at

Bernhard Hammer, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital, Vienna, Austria

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 16, 2018, pages NYK
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi:

Abstract:

When studying the economic consequences of changes in the age structure of the population, looking at economic dependency ratios provides us with some descriptive and intuitive initial insights. In this paper, we present two economic dependency ratios. The first ratio is based on economic activity status, and relates the number of dependent individuals to the number of workers. The second dependency ratio relates consumption to total labour income. To build up the second ratio, we rely on the recently set up National Transfer Accounts (NTA) for Austria. Simulations of the employment-based dependency ratio with constant age-specific employment rates indicate that the employment-based dependency ratio will increase from 1.23 in 2010 to 1.88 in 2050, based on a population scenario that assumes low mortality and high educational levels in the future. The corresponding values for the NTA-based dependency with constant age-specific labour income and consumption are 1.12 in 2010 and 1.49 in 2050. We then compare how the dependency ratio would differ if we accounted for the increasing levels of educational attainment. While the education-specific age patterns of economic activities are kept constant as of 2010, the changing educational composition up to 2050 is accounted for. In Austria, higher educated individuals enter and exit the labour market at older ages and have more total labour income than lower educated individuals. Our simulations of the education-specific economic dependency ratios up to 2050, based on the optimistic projection scenario of low mortality and high educational levels in the future, show that the employment-based ratio will increase to 1.68 and the NTA-based dependency ratio will rise to 1.28. These increases are still considerable, but are well below the values found when changes in the educational composition are not taken into account. We can therefore conclude that the trend towards higher levels of educational attainment may help to reduce economic dependency.

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