The hall was bursting at the seams. Talking about future scenarios proved to be the topic of the moment. From computer glasses to robotic cars – experts have been trying to make the future assessable by using various scenarios. At this year’s ITA conference, which took place on June 1 at the Austrian Academy of Sciences, 120 participants discussed whether predictions can be objective at all.
From Nano to Assisted Living
The ITA presented a number of contributions on the issue: Helge Torgersen took a critical look at the possible establishment of substances for neuro-enhancement. Mahshid Sotoudeh researches new models of living for the ageing in several projects. Andre Gazsó, leader of the NanoTrust project which is funded by several Austrian ministries, stressed the importance of transparency for a precautionary risk governance of nanotechnologies and nanomaterials.
What comes first - the value or the prognosis?
"It seems as if our future is increasingly uncertain. Why is that?", asked Lena Illmola-Sheppard (IIASA) in her opening speech. “I think it’s because more often than not we are experiencing how the impossible becomes possible. That can be unsettling." However, even the most likely forecasts cannot make the future tangible, says Sheppard: "Our own view of the world always plays into our prognosis. We use methods that reflect our value system." Applying methods that value improbability higher would be essential: “If we really want to capture what has never been seen before, we need to use more complex scenarios."
Foreseeing the unforeseeable
What to do when a technology is so new that its further development can simply not be foreseen? Technology assessment for "New and Emerging Sciences and Technologies" is a challenge. "If little facts available, we assess technologies often by the type of debate they trigger: It can be controversial, as is the case with human enhancement, or targeted to reach certain economic goals, like for example the nanotechnology debate often is", says Helge Torgersen.
For Armin Grunwald from the German Institute for Technology Assessment and Systems Analysis, who gave the second keynote, deconstructing such debates requires the inclusion of further research methods: "Future projections always include cultural stories and patterns that repeat themselves. These could be evaluated through less likely disciplines such as cultural studies”, says Grunwald. Philosophy or history could also provide new insights and new methods of discourse analysis.
Youth without revolt
Young Germans are surprisingly conservative. At least this is the result of two studies performed by Veronika Schmid (University of Marburg) and Sebastian Schmid (University of Regensburg). They questioned student - most of them in their own eyes more on the liberal side of the political spectrum - about future visions on current global developments such as climate change or employment shifts. The result: "The majority responded that they were indeed uncomfortable with the increasing mechanization of everyday life. But there was no tendency to actively shape the future and no wish to change the existing system. The overall attitude towards the future was rather passive."
The power of design
Frank Heidmann (FH Potsdam) talked about ways human-technology cooperation could be made visible through critical design, which builds on the believe that the role certain objects play in our everyday life can be changed according to what form we give them. He stressed the crucial role of design processes for the tolerability of technology for different audiences and target groups, such as the elderly.
You can find the complete conference program with all 29 lectures and all abstracts here (Please note: All conference materials are in German).
