Thematic Focal Person: Samir K.C.

Specific work plans for mid-2011 to mid-2013

The underlying IIASA demographic model for population projections and educational attainment will undergo significant improvements. First, the mortality component will be revised to include new assumptions about differential mortality across educational attainment categories. These will be derived empirically, by analysing survival ratios across censuses. Second, the model will be revised to include specific assumptions about the course of HIV and AIDS mortality in the most affected countries, in terms of level, age patterns, and education. Third, the fertility component will be revised in line with the mortality component. Empirical distributions based on Demographic and Health Surveys for developing countries and fertility surveys for developed ones, will be analyzed in order to derive education-specific differentials in the levels and age patterns of fertility.

In light of the results of meta-experts meetings regarding mortality and fertility, we will be able to refine and revise the assumptions for the future. One member of the team, Alessandra Garbero, will be leading and organizing the meta-experts meeting on high mortality, which will gather leading scholars’ mortality estimations and projections to produce argument-based expert assumptions.

Samir K.C., will be actively involved in the meta-experts meeting for high fertility countries, which will take place in Nepal.

As a final step, a multi-state population projections model based on new inputs that will be produced by other WIC groups will be developed. The time horizon of the projections will also be extended up to 2100.

The data modeling team is also producing population projections by educational attainment, disaggregated by urban and rural. For this purpose, we also plan to refine the methodology for the identification of urban areas, in order to overcome classification inconsistencies across countries and over time. 

In addition, the data modeling team is exploring the possibility of incorporating a disability dimension in the projections. The initial phase will derive empirical distributions of disability in selected countries. This will indicate the potential of adding a health component into the projections. If the data permit, this effort will form the basis of a new methodology and dataset on global demography and human capital.