Theory of Socioeconomic Change

Overall vision

This project is developing a general theory of how societies change as a consequence of the changing composition of their members with regard to relevant and measurable characteristics of people. The theory features demographic concepts and measures as causal factors, but broader societal outcomes as the targets of explanation and prediction. The effort focuses on the construction of explicit quantitative statements about social change for several decades into the future, statements that may include explicit uncertainty intervals. These statements about the real world can be confronted with data and experience that will support or reject them. When supported, the statements may provide reliable guidance to policymakers.