Sergei Scherbov’s Publications
A: Books
- Demographic Trends and Patterns in the USSR Before
1991. Lutz, W., S. Scherbov, and A. Volkov. Eds. London:
Routledge, 1994.
B: Refereed Articles
2010
- Sanderson, W.C., Scherbov, S., 2010, Remeasuring Aging. Science 329, 1287-1288 (September 10, 2010)
2008
2005
2003
- Sanderson, W.C., Scherbov, S.: Average remaining lifetimes can increase as human populations age. Nature 435: 811-813 (June 9, 2005). http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v435/n7043/abs/nature03593.html
- Europe’s population at a turning. Science 299, 28 March, 2003. Coauthors: W. Lutz and B.
O'Neill
- The End of Population Growth in Asia. Journal of
Population Research (Australia) Forthcoming. Coauthor: W.
Lutz
2002
- Period Fertility in Russia since 1930 an application of the
Coale-Trussell fertility model. Demographic Research 6, article 16. Coauthor: H. van Vianen
- Population, natural resources, and food security: Lessons
from comparing full and reduced-form models. In: Lutz, W., A.
Prskawetz, and W. C. Sanderson. Eds. Population and
Environment. Methods of Analysis. Supplement to Population and
Development Review 28. New York: The
Population Council. 199-224. Coauthors: W. Lutz, A. Prskawetz,
M. Dworak, and G. Feichtinger
- How many of us is going to be? The Issues of
Statistics. State Committee of Russia on
Statistics 3:17-23.
- The end of world population growth. Nature 412: 543-545. Coauthors: W. Lutz and W.
Sanderson)
2001
- Marriage and fertility in Russia of women born between 1900
and 1960: a cohort analysis. European Journal of
Population 17: 281-294. Coauthor: H.van
Vianen
2000
- Quantifying vicious circle dynamics: The PEDA model for
population environment development and agriculture in African
countries. In: E. Dockner, R. Hartl, M. Luptacik, and G.
Sorger. Eds. Optimization, Dynamics and Economic
Analysis, Heidelberg: Physica. Coauthor: W. Lutz
1999
- Expert-based Probabilistic Population Projections. In: W.
Lutz, J. Vaupel and D. Ahlburg Ed. Frontiers of Population
Forecasting. A supplement Vol. 24, 1998 to Population and Development Review. Coauthors: W. Lutz
and W. Sanderson
- Marital and Fertility careers of Russian women born between
1910 and 1935. Population and Development Review 25(1). Coauthor: H. van Vianen
- Too many and too old? Living with uncertainty in long-term
population projections, Orgyn, Organon's Magazine on Women
& Health X(2) (Issued in English,
French, German, Spanish and Portuguese)
- Probabilistische Bevölkerungsprognosen für
Deutschland. In: Herausforderungen unserer älter werdenden
Gesellschaft an den Einzelnen und die Politik,
Enquete-Kommission »Demographischer Wandel« Deutscher Bundestag, Heidelberg: R.v. Decker’s Verlag.
pp. 1323-1365. Coauthor: W. Lutz
- The long-term effect on population size of the timing of
fertility decline. Population and Development Review 25(4). Coauthors: B. O'Neill and W.
Lutz
- What Do We Know About the Future Changes in the Proportions
of Children and Eldery in Europe? Compendium of Family
Studies in Austria 1999 7, Wien .
Coauthor: W. Lutz
1998
- An Expert-Based Framework for Probabilistic National
Population Projections: The Example of Austria. European
Journal of Population 14: 1-17. Coauthor:
W. Lutz
- Probabilistische Bevölkerungsprognosen für Deutschland. Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft 23(2): 83-109. Coauthor: W. Lutz
- Population of Russia: what can we expect in the
future? World Development 26(11): 1939-1955. Coauthors: E. Andreev and
F. Willekens
1997
- Doubling of world population unlikely. Nature387: 803-805. Coauthors: W.
Lutz and W. Sanderson
- Ein probabilistischer Ansatz zur
Bevölkerungsvorausschätzung für
Österreich. Statistische Nachrichten 12: 984-988, Wien. Coauthors: A. Hanika and W.
Lutz
1996
- World Population Scenarios for the 21st Century. In: W. Lutz Ed. The Future Population of the World: What
can we Assume Today? 2nd Edition, London: Earthscan. pp.
361-396. Coauthors: W. Lutz, W. Sanderson, A. Goujon
- Probabilistic Population Projections Based on Expert
Opinion In: W. Lutz Ed. The Future Population of the World:
What can we Assume Today? 2nd Edition, London: Earthscan.
pp. 397-428. Coauthors: W. Lutz and W. Sanderson
1995
- Marital Status Behavior of Women in the Former Soviet
Republics. European Journal of Population 11: 31-62. Coauthor: L. Darsky
- Demographic Trends in Russia. In: H. van den Brekel and
F.Deven. Eds. Population and Family in a Low Countries
1994. Kluwer Academic Publisher. Coauthor: F.
Willekens
1994
- Marital and Fertility Experience of Soviet women. A life
table Analysis. In: W. Lutz, S. Scherbov, and A. Volkov Eds. Demographic Trends and Patterns in the USSR Before
1991. London: Routledge. pp.185-210. Coauthor: F.
Willekens
- Survey of Fertility Trends in the Republics of the Soviet
Union 1959?1990. In: W. Lutz, S. Scherbov, and A. Volkov Eds. Demographic Trends and Patterns in the USSR Before
1991. London: Routledge. Pp. 19-40. Coauthor: W. Lutz
1992
- Sensitivity of Aggregation Period Life Expectancy to
Different Averaging Procedures. Population Bulletin of the
United Nations 33: 32-46. (Issued in
English, French and Spanish) United Nations. Coauthor: W.
Lutz
- Analysis of mortality data from the former USSR:
age-period-cohort analysis. World Health
Statistics Quarterly 45(1): 29-49.
Coauthor: F. Willekens
- Mortality and Morbidity Projections: Lang Cancer. In: W.
Morgenstern et. all. Eds. Models of Noncommunicable
Diseases. Heidelberg: Springer. pp. 91-100. Coauthors: M.
Rusnak and B. Cider
- Reconstructing Ukranian fertility during the years of
cataclysms in the 1930s and 1940s. In: G. Buttles, G.
Heilig and G. Schmitt-Runk. Eds. Acta Demographica.
Heidelberg: Physica. pp. 103-116. Coauthors: W. Lutz and S.
Pirozhkov
1991
- Future Regional Population Patterns in the Soviet Union:
Scenarios to the Year 2050. In: W. Lutz Ed. Future
Demographic Trends in Europe and North America. What Can We
Assume Today? London: Academic Press. Coauthor: W.
Lutz
- Some Experience in Modelling Age-Specific Fertility
Rates for Ukraine. Family and Family Policy Quarterly: Demography and Sociology. Institute of the
Socio-Economic Problems of Population. Academy of Sciences of
the USSR. Moscow. (in Russian) Coauthor: S. Pirozkov
1989
- Modellrechnungen zum Einfluss regional unterschiedlicher
Fertilitätsniveaus auf die zukünftige
Bevölkerungsverteilung in der Sowjetunion. Zeitschrift
für
Bevölkerungswissenschaft15(3):
271?292. Coauthor: W. Lutz
1988
- The Recent Fertility Trends in the USSR. Sociological
Studies 3, Moscow (in Russian).
Coauthors: A. Vishnevsky, A. Anichkin et al.
C: Other Publications
2002
- Population ageing in Europe: Demographic evidence and
forecasts. In: 18th CEIES Seminar Active Ageing
Statistics held at The Hague, May 23-24 Luxembourg: Office
for Official Publications of the European Communities. pp.
15-22. Coauthor: W. Lutz
- The End of Population Growth in Asia.Interim
Report IR-02-060, International Institute for
Applied Systems Analysis. Coauthor: W. Lutz
- Can Immigration Compensate for Europe's Low Fertility?. Interim Report IR-02-052, International Institute for
Applied Systems Analysis. Coauthor: W. Lutz
2001
- South Africa's Uncertain Demographic Present and Future. Interim Report IR-01-019, International Institute for
Applied Systems Analysis. Coauthors: W. Lutz and Van Aardt
2000
- Natural Resources and Food Security Lessons from Comparing
Full and Reduced Form Models. Interim Report IR-00-038, International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis. Coauthors: W. Lutz, A. Prskawetz, M. Dworak, and G.
Feichtinger
- Likely Future Population Trends in Greece and in the
European Union. In: E. Kikilias, Ch. Bagavos, P. Tinios, and M.
Chletsos Eds. Demographic Ageing: Proceedings of a European
Union-sponsored Symposium on "The Challenge of Demographic
Ageing and the Knowledge-Based Society", Athens, Greece,
2-3 November 2000. pp. 37-50, Athens: Ethniko Institouto
Ergasias (in Greek). Coauthors: W. Lutz and W. C.
Sanderson
- New Developments in the Methodology of Expert- and
Argument-Based Probabilistic Population Forecasting, Interim ReportIR-00-020, International Institute for
Applied Systems Analysis. Coauthors:W. Lutz, P. Saariluoma, and
W. C. Sanderson
1999
- What Do We Know About Future Changes in the Proportions of
Children and Elderly in Europe? Interim Report IR-99-012, International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis. Coauthor: W. Lutz
- Quantifying Vicious Circle Dynamics: The PDE Model for
Population, Environment, Development and Agriculture in African
Countries. Interim Report IR-99-049, International
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Coauthor: W. Lutz
- The Fertility Transition in Russia: Women Born Between 1900
and 1960. Working Paper 99-1, FRW,
University of Groningen, Coauthor: H. van Vianen
- Fertility Change in Russia Since 1930: Data and Estimates. Working Paper 99-2, FRW, University
of Groningen. Coauthor: H. van Vianen
- Doubling of World Population Unlikely. In: A. A. Lew and T.
Paradis. Perspectives Geography. Northern Arizona
University, Coauthors: W. Lutz and W. Sanderson
1998
- An Expert-Based Framework for Probabilistic National
Population Projections: The Example of Austria. Research
Report RR-98-010, International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis. Coauthor: W. Lutz
- Population Projections: New Opportunities for Software
Development, Interim Report IR-98-043, International
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
- Marital and Fertility careers of Russian women born between
1910 and 1935. Working Paper 98-1,
FRW, University of Groningen. Coauthor: H. van Vianen
1997
- Probabilistic population projections for Austria. In POPNET 30: 4-5. Laxenburg, Austria:
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Coauthor:
W. Lutz and A. Hanika
- Sensitivity Analysis of Expert-Based Probabilistic
Population Projections in the Case of Austria,
Interim Report IR-97-048, International Institute for
Applied Systems Analysis. Coauthor: W. Lutz
- Doubling of world population unlikely, Research
Report RR-97-010, International Institute for Applied
Systems Analysis. Coauthors: W. Lutz and W. Sanderson
- The Population of Russia: Fewer and Older. Demographic
Scenarios for Russia and its Regions. Demographic
Reports, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of
Groningen, pp. 242. Coauthors: E. Andreev and F. Willekens
1996
- Demographic atlas of Russia, 140 pp. Coauthor: E. Andreev.
Manuscript.
- Probabilistic World Projections Based on Expert
Opinion, Working Paper WP/96/17, International
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Coauthors: W. Lutz and
W. Sanderson
1995
- Sourses of Information on the Population of Russia,
Demographic Reports, Faculty of Spatial Scienses, University of
Groningen, 72 pp. Coauthor: F. Willekens
1993
- Mortality in the Former Soviet Union. Past and Future.
Working Paper WP/93/13, International Institute for Applied
Systems Analysis. Coauthors: E. Andreev and F. Willekens
- Marital Status Behavior of Women in the Former USSR:
Regional Aspects. Working Paper WP/93/43, International
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Coauthor: L.
Darsky
1992
- Trends of mortality for chronic diseases: Comparison of
data for Austria, Czechoslovakia and Hungary. In: M. K. Chytil,
G. Duru, W. v. Eimeren, and Ch. D. Flagle. Eds. Fifth
International Conference on System Science in Health Care.
Prague: Omnipress Publishing. pp. 1127-1130. Coauthors: M.
Rusnak and A. Raisova
1991
- Age-Period-Cohort (APC) Analysis of Mortality with
Applications to Soviet Data. Working Paper WP/91/42,
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Coauthor: F. Willekens
- Demographic perspectives of labour potential formation in
the USSR. Ukrainian Academy of Sciences. Kiev (in Russian).
Coauthor: S. Pirozkov
1990
- Marital and Fertility Careers of Soviet women. A life table
Analysis. Working Paper WP/90/78, International Institute
for Applied Systems Analysis. Coauthor: F. Willekens
- Modelling Ukrainian Fertility Since 1925, Working
Paper WP/90/25, International Institute for Applied
Systems Analysis. Coauthors: W. Lutz and S. Pirozkov
- Parity Progression Fertility Tables for the Nationalities
of the USSR, Working Paper WP/90/53, International
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Coauthor: L.
Darsky
- Demographic Aspects of Changes in the Soviet Pension
System, Working Paper WP/90/03, International
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Coauthors: N. Keyfitz,
W. Lutz, C. Prinz, and A. Wils
1989
- Multi-State Analysis of Family Dynamics in Austria:
Scenarios to the Year 2030, Working Paper WP/89/05,
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Coauthor:
W. Lutz
- Averaging Life Expectancy, Working Paper WP/89/35,
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
Coauthors: E. Andreev and W. Lutz
- Population Beyond the Boundaries of Demography, Working
Paper WP/89/106, International Institute for Applied
Systems Analysis. Coauthors: N. Keyfitz, G. Heilig, and W.
Lutz
1988
- "DIAL" - A System for Modeling Multidimensional Demographic
Processes, Working Paper WP/88/36, International
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Coauthor: V.
Grechucha
- Regional Fertility Trends in the Soviet Union, POPNET 13. Coauthor: W. Lutz
- Population Futures for Europe: An Analysis of Alternative
Scenarios. Working Paper WP/88/46, International
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Coauthors: D. Wolf, B.
Wils, and W. Lutz
- Future Regional Population Patterns in the Soviet Union:
Scenarios to the Year 2050, Working Paper WP/88/104,
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Coauthor:
W. Lutz
- Understanding Medical and Demographic Trends with MEDDAS, Working Paper WP/88/23, International Institute for
Applied Systems Analysis.
1986
- Dialog System for Modeling Multidimensional Demographic
Processes, Working Paper WP-86-29, International
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Coauthors: A. Yashin
and V. Grechucha
- Derivative-free Gauss-Newton-like Algorithm for Parameter
Estimation, Working Paper WP-86-63, International
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Coauthor: V.
Golubkov
- Dialogue System for Modeling Multidimensional
Demographic Processes, Proceedings of 9th All-Union
Symposium on Methodological Problems of Science Basis, (in
Russian) Naukova Dumka, Kiev,. Coauthors: V. Gelovani and V.
Grechucha
- Income Differentiation for Populations of Non-socialist
Countries and Level of Economical Development. Regional Trends.
In: Global Problems - State and Estimates, All-Union
Research Institute for Systems Studies, (in Russian), Moscow.
Coauthor: V. Pogoretsky
- Dialogue System for Simulation of Multistate Demographic
Processes. In: Global Development: Models and Numerical
Experiments, All-Union Research Institute for Systems
Studies, (in Russian), Moscow. Coauthor: V. Grechucha
- Simulation of the Demographic Growth of the Region (an
Application to the USA), Preprint, All-Union Research Institute
for Systems Studies, (in Russian), Moscow, Coauthors: V.
Grechucha and N. Visotskaya
1985
- Modeling of Global Processes. System for Interactive
Modeling., Preprint. All-Union Research Institute for Systems
Studies, (in Russian), Moscow, Coauthors: V. Gelovani, V.
Golubkov et al.
- Main Trends of World Demographic Development, Systems
Analysis of Global Development Processes, All-Union
Research Institute for Systems Studies, Vol. 3 (in Russian),
Moscow. Coauthors: V. Grechucha, N. Visotskaya
1984
- Universal Problem of Global System - Differentiation of
Income within the Population. Model Building Experience. Global Modelling: Social Processes, All-Union Research
Institute for Systems Studies, (in Russian), Moscow. Coauthors:
V. Golubkov and V. Pogoretsky
- Modelling of Multiregional Demographic Development,
Proceedings of the Third All-Union School Seminar on Systems
Analysis of Social-Economical Problems of Regional Development,
Novosibirsk, (in Russian). Coauthor: V Grechucha
1983
- Simulation der langfristigen Bevölkerungsentwicklung
nach Regionen der DDR, Wiss. Mitt. Inst. f.
Geogr.u.Geoökol. AdW d.DDR, No.9, Leipzig, Coauthor: H.
Usbek
- Simulation of Multiregional Population Change: an
Application to the German Democratic Republic, Working
Paper WP-83-6, International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis. Coauthor: H. Usbek
1982
- Simulation of Age-Specific Fertility and Mortality. Man-Computer System for Modelling Global Development
Processes, All-Union Research Institute for Systems
Studies, (in Russian), Moscow. Coauthor: V. Yurchenko
1981
- Simulation of Demographic Development of the Region. In: Proceedings of All-Union conference Global Problems of
World Development, Yurmala, 1980, Latvian State
University. Coauthor: V. Yurchenko
1980
- Exponential Approximation, Preprint, All-Union Research
Institute for Systems Studies, Moscow, Coauthor: V.
Golubkov
- Fitting Functions by Exponents with Complex Indices. Methods for Studying Complex Systems, All-Union
Research Institute for Systems Studies, (in Russian), Moscow.
Coauthor: V. Golubkov
1979
- Identification of Parameters Using Finite-Difference
Gauss-Newton-like Method. In: Collection of papers of All-Union
Research Institute for Systems Studies, Vol.8 (in Russian),
Moscow. Coauthor: V. Golubkov
1978
- Accounting Age-Sex Structure of Population in Global
Models. In: Collection of papers of All-Union Research
Institute for Systems Studies, Vol.1 (in Russian), Moscow.
D: Popular scientific publications
- Met hoevelen zijn we over 50 jaar? Natuur&Techniek11, November
1997
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