Tempo and Quantum of Fertility in Europe
Childless Societies? Trends and Projections of Childlessness in Europe and the United States
Tomas Sobotka
Using period and cohort fertility data for 17 European countries and the United States, this paper constitutes an updated chapter of the doctoral thesis. It projects trends in final child- lessness among women born between 1940 and 1975. Two basic scenarios of lifetime child- lessness are presented for women born after 1955. Both of these scenarios combine the most recent set of exposure-based indicators of age-specific fertility with the data on age-parity composition of the female population.
Database of period and cohort fertility data in European countries
Tomas Sobotka
On the basis of previously collected data, the aim is to create a detailed database of order-specific period and cohort fertility in Europe, and to prepare a large number of aggregate data in a uniform format
Decomposing change in the number of births: How important is the influence of fertility postponement?
Dimiter Philipov
This study analyses factors leading to the long-standing decline in the total number of births in the European Union. We apply a simple method that decomposes the change in the total number of births into the following effects: changes in the female population by age, changes in the age composition of the fertility schedule, changes in fertility quantum, and changes in fertility tempo combined with changes in the parity distribution of women. Our main focus is on the role of fertility postponement in reducing total number of births and contributing to the slower or even negative population growth in the EU countries. During 2004, a preliminary comparative analysis of six European societies was carried out: Austria, the Czech Republic, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and Sweden.
Fertility postponement and 'recovery' in the latest-childbearing countries of Europe: A parity-specific analysis of period and cohort fertility trends
Tomas Sobotka
This contribution will provide an analysis of fertility trends in four European countries that are currently characterised by the latest timing of first births (Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and Sweden). First, theoretical arguments which have been advanced to explain the shift towards the late pattern of first birth timing in each of these countries will be reviewed. A detailed pe-riod and cohort fertility analysis will investigate to what extent is the fertility decline among women at younger ages counterbalanced by fertility ‘recovery’ at higher reproductive ages. Period fertility trends are inspected using parity-specific fertility table indicators.
Is fertility ‘postponement’ and ‘recovery’ a meaningful concept in demographic re-search? Insights based on European data
Tomas Sobotka
Women and men across Europe have been entering parenthood at ever higher ages. This process, associated with negative distortions of the usual period fertility indicators, has been frequently labelled as ‘fertility postponement’. Although there exist different approaches to define fertility postponement, this term implies that at least a portion of the supposedly post- poned childbearing should eventually take place. In other words, this framework explicitly links fertility decline among younger women with subsequent fertility increase among women in a later stage of reproductive life. Is this reasoning justified by empirical evidence? If so, is there really a causal link between fertility rates at younger and older reproductive ages?
Postponement and level in fertility intentions: theory and evidence from Bulgaria and Hungary
Dimiter Philipov
This research project, started in 2003, was completed in 2004 (together with Zsolt Spéder and Francesco Billari). Fertility intentions are considered separately by parity as well as by level (intention to have a child of a particular order or not) and timing of an intended birth (within 2 years or later). The results reveal that the theoretical background of fertility intentions is parity-specific as well as specific with respect to level and timing. The study shows the importance of social anomie and social capital in these two countries.