Population Dynamics and Forecasting
Sergei Scherbov
The main task of the research group is the development and applications of statistical and computer methods and techniques in order to analyse and project the dynamics of population and its components such as fertility, mortality and migration.
The following research themes are of major interest:
Population Projections
Different types of population projections are considered under this theme. The research in conducted in both in developing new methodology for population projection as well as applying different methodologies to particular country studies. Three types of projections are identified: conventional, multistate and probabilistic. Conventional projections are applied to different countries in order to assess the impact of components of population change such as fertility, mortality and migration on labor market, social security system and many other aspects of socio-economic development. Parameterized population projections are often employed under this direction. Multistate population projections are used to analyze populations composed of heterogeneous groups. Of major interest are development of the methodology for projections of population classified by different educational status and projections of minority population.
Probabilistic population projections are used to assess the uncertainty, which is the intrinsic feature of future population dynamics. Methods of probabilistic scenario generation are of major research questions in this direction. Probabilistic population projections are applied to different countries and regions of the world. One of the very recent research directions is applying probabilistic approach to multistate population projections. more
Projections of Human Capital
This theme heavily employs the methodology of multistate population projections and is aimed at applied research in different directions. Among them are the following: Population Projections by level of Education (in collaboration with the World Bank and AED), The Future of Human Capital in South Asia, Estimates of Human Capital from 1960 to 2000 for OECD countries.
Under this theme Population-Development-Environment-interactions are also studied, namely in the PDE case study: Population, human capital and water in Egypt. more
Non-European Population Dynamics
Research that requires a particular methodology to be developed and is aimed at specific country or region is covered under this theme. Among other directions two topics are of primary focus: Estimation of rural-to-urban migration in China and Analysis of Recent Trends and Components of Change in Fertility in Egypt. more