Projections of Human Capital
Estimates of Human Capital from 1960 to 2000 for OECD countries
Alexia Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Anne Goujon
The detailed age and education structure of the working-age population in OECD countries from 1960 to 2000 is estimated to test the importance of education achievements in explain-ing economic growth.
PDE case study:
Population, human capital and water in Egypt
Wolfgang Lutz, Anne Goujon, Henriette Engelhardt
The PDE (Population-Development-Environment) case study for Egypt was launched at a meeting in August 2004 with participation of IIASA, VID and the Cairo Demographic Centre (CDC). It was decided that human capital formation would be the initial focus of this new initiative. Indeed, while macroeconomic policies and water management are well covered by studies, there is a major research gap in the field of education and human capital, which can link the demographic analysis to the economy and environment. Since population and human capital planning are important for regional development planning in Egypt, the project will analyse data for all 27 governorates of Egypt and define alternative population and education scenarios at the governorate level. Huda Alkitkat, a CDC researcher, came to Austria for two months and started developing the projections at country and governorate levels
Population projections by level of education in collaboration with the World Bank and the AED
Anne Goujon, Wolfgang Lutz
The World Population Project (IIASA) and the VID together with the Academy for Educational Development (AED) have started collaboration with the World Bank to study the importance of forecasting human capital in developing countries. Several meetings were held in 2003 and 2004. It was agreed that in a first phase the researchers at IIASA-VID (Wolfgang Lutz and Anne Goujon) and at AED ( Annababette Wils) will document the multi-state projection methods that enable to show the long-term effects of near-term investment in education. This paper to be published in 2005 as a World Bank Paper argues that forecasting human capital is important for several reasons. First, it can provide importance guidance for the specific planning of resource allocation for educational expansion under changing demographic conditions, but also for strategic orientation and long-term planning. Second, the models developed can help national and international agencies in more realistic target-setting because they consider both the momentum of population and education growth. Finally, the resulting projections are valuable for advocacy purposes to expand school systems because they show that short-term improvements in enrolment translate into long-term upgrading of the adult population. The paper demonstrates the feasibility of the method through three detailed education projection studies for the priority countries Guinea, Nicaragua, and Zambia. The three countries pose different challenges in terms of data availability and are examples of different educational conditions. These countries are also the focus of a number of international education initiatives and represent a range of education experiences.
The future of human capital in South East Asia
Anne Goujon, Wolfgang Lutz, Sergei Scherbov
Based on the results of the projections by level of education developed at the October 2003 workshop in Bangkok, a book is in preparation that will include six country chapters (Indone-sia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam) and an analysis and outlook of education and human capital perspectives for the whole region.
MicMac: Bridging the micro-macro gap in population forecasting
Anne Goujon, Alexia Prskawetz, Samir K.C., Vegard Skirbekk
A consortium formed by the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI) together with seven other Institutes received funding from the European Commission under the 6th Framework Programme "Integrating and strengthening the European Research Area", to develop a methodology that would adequately monitor and forecast demographic changes and of the lifestyle and life course of the population for the provision of health and social security to the people of Europe. The methodology consists of a macro-model (MAC) that models demographic changes at the population level and a micro-model (MIC) that models demographic events at the individual level. As part of Work Package 1, Mic-Mac will have a small component on multi-state population projections by level of education, which will be developed by VID. This part of WP1 will deliver a substantive contribution about changes in the educational composition of the total population (with special emphasis on the working age population) to all other components of Mic-Mac. It will define alternative scenarios about future transition rates considering ongoing plans for school reforms and it will cover the analysis of interactions between education and the timing of fertility over the life course (in collaboration with WP5). More
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