Population, Environment and Economic Development
Households, consumption, and energy use: The role of demographic change in future U.S. greenhouse gas emissions
Brian O’Neill, Alexia Fürnkranz-Prskawetz
Expected changes in the age composition of U.S. households over the next 25-100 years could affect demand for energy and emissions of carbon dioxide, the most important greenhouse gas. We use the Population-Environment-Technology model, household projections from the ProFamy model, and data from the U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey to assess the effects of population aging on labour supply, demand for consumer goods, energy used to produce those goods, and carbon emissions. Our results show that demographic factors and economic heterogeneity across households can have substantial effects on long-term projections of energy use and carbon emissions.
Human fertility and population density
Wolfgang Lutz, Maria Rita Testa
The study examines the relationship between population density and fertility in 145 countries since 1960, controlling for important social and economic variables. In all models, covering a wide range of different specifications, we find strong and significant negative associations between density and fertility. In most cases density is a better predictor of fertility than the economic and social factors considered. In addition we find that fertility preferences decline with higher density across 94 regions of the EU. The possible causal mechanisms for these associations include endocrine responses to crowding, perception of living space, perceived costs and benefits of reproduction, and differential use of modern contraception. These findings alter the way we think about future fertility and human population growth.