Non-European Population Dynamics
Estimation of rural-to-urban migration in China
Sergei Scherbov
In the projections for China the UN assumed a certain level of urbanization. It was analysed whether this level is feasible and what it implies in terms of the number of migrants moving from rural to urban areas. The total number of migrants in the period 2000-2030 was estimated at around 300 million people. This research was done in the framework of collaboration with IIASA.
Recent Trends and Components
of Change in Fertility in Egypt
Henriette Engelhardt
Recent research indicates that fertility transition is underway in Egypt. However, after experiencing rapid decline since the 1980s, beginning with the second half of the 1990s, fertility decline in Egypt seemed to be stalling. Of late, it has been realized that the TFR as the conventional measure is a poor indicator of fertility for populations undergoing rapid fertility transition. In particular, if childbearing is postponed and, subsequently, the mean age at childbearing increases, the observed total fertility rate is lower than in the absence of such timing changes. Thus, the observed stalling of total fertility in Egypt could be caused by a change in the timing of first and subsequent births. The present study investigates the levels and changes in total and parity-specific fertility by using the information on changes in the mean age of birth of the Demographic and Health Surveys from 1992, 1995 and 2000. Moreover, the decline in fertility is decomposed into its proximate and socio-economic components.
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