Union Instability as an Engine of Fertility? A Micro-simulation Model for France
Elizabeth Thomson (University of Wisconsin-Madison/Stockholm University) Maria Winkler-Dworak, Martin Spielauer (Statistics Canada), Alexia Fürnkranz-Prskawetz
Micro-level relationships between union formation or dissolution and childbearing may constitute the ‘engine’ of variation and change around replacement level fertility. Where unions and childbearing occur relatively late in the childbearing years and stability is relatively high, couples may settle for one child together and not be exposed to the risk of ‘extra’ children with a new partner. When unions and childbearing occur at moderate ages and unions frequently dissolve, however, many parents may produce a second (or third) child with a new partner. In this paper, we estimate the parameters of these micro-level relationships for female respondents to the 1999 French `Etude de l’Histoire Familiale´. We present a micro-simulation of the implications of union dissolution for the intensities of second, third, and fourth births in France.