Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2015


 

Special issue on:

Demographic differential vulnerability to climate-related disasters


Guest editors: Raya Muttarak and Leiwen Jiang


Table of contents


Introduction


What can demographers contribute to the study of vulnerability?


Demographic Debate

Why are so few demographers working on population and climate change?


 

Engagement of demographers in environmental issues from a historical perspective


The next best time for demographers to contribute to climate change research


Will climate change shift demography’s ‘normal science’?


Barriers to involvement of Chinese demographers in climate change research


Population dynamics and climate change: A challenging frontier for the intrepid demographer


Two statements on population and sustainable development produced by global scientific panels in 2002 and 2012


Refereed Articles

Differential mortality from extreme climate events


Differential mortality patterns from hydro-meteorological disasters: Evidence from cause-of-death data by age and sex


Daily mortality changes in Taiwan in the 1970s: An examination of the relationship between temperature and mortality


Spatial patterns of social vulnerability to weather and climate Extremes


Assessing the effectiveness of a social vulnerability index in predicting heterogeneity in the impacts of natural hazards: Case study of the Tropical Storm Washi flood in the Philippines

  • J. Andres F. Ignacio, Grace T. Cruz, Fernando Nardi and Sabine Henry
    Details | Full text

Social vulnerability to floods in two coastal megacities: New York City and Mumbai

  • Alex de Sherbinin and Guillem Bardy
    Details | Full text

Differential risk perceptions and climate actions


Who perceives what? A demographic analysis of subjective perception in rural Thailand

  • Jacqueline Meijer-Irons
    Details | Full text

Who is concerned about and takes action on climate change? Gender and education divides among Thais

  • Raya Muttarak and Thanyaporn Chankrajang
    Details | Full text

Forecasting future societies’ vulnerability and adaptive capacity through the lens of human capital


Future differential vulnerability to natural disasters by level of education

  • Erich Striessnig and Elke Loichinger
    Details | Full text

The demography of human development and climate change vulnerability: A projection exercise

  • Jesus Crespo Cuaresma and Wolfgang Lutz
    Details | Full text

A four-dimensional population module for the analysis of future adaptive capacity in the Phang Nga province of Thailand

  • Elke Loichinger, Samir KC and Wolfgang Lutz
    Details | Full text

Details & Abstracts


 What can demographers contribute to the study of vulnerability?


Raya Muttarak (corresponding author), Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human
Capital (IIASA, VID/̈ÖAW, WU), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Vienna
Institute of Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna, Austria
Email: muttarak(at)iiasa.ac.at
Wolfgang Lutz, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/̈ÖAW, WU), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Vienna Institute of Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU), Vienna, Austria
Leiwen Jiang, Asian Demographic Research Institute (ADRI), Shanghai University, Shanghai, China
and National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA

 

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 13, 2015, pages 1-13
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2015s1

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Engagement of demographers in environmental issues rom a historical perspective


Peter McDonald, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University, Acton ACT 0200,Australia

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 13, 2015, pages 15-17
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2015s15

Abstract:

 

Full text


The next best time for demographers to contribute to climate change research


Anastasia J. Gage, Department of Global Community Health and Behavioral Sciences, TulaneUniversity School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, New Orleans, LA 70112, USA

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 13, 2015, pages 15-17
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2015s19

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Will climate change shift demography’s ‘normal science’?


Lori M. Hunter (corresponding author), Institute of Behavioral Science, University of ColoradoBoulder, USAJane Menken, Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado Boulder, USA

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 13, 2015, pages 19-22
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2015s23

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Barriers to involvement of Chinese demographers in climate change research


Xizhe Peng (corresponding author), Research Center for Population and Development Policies,Fudan University, Shanghai, China
Qin Zhu, Research Center for Population and Development Policies, Fudan University, Shanghai, China

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 13, 2015, pages 29-31
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2015s29

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Population dynamics and climate change: A challenging frontier for the intrepid demographer


Adrian C. Hayes, School of Demography, Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200,Australia

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 13, 2015, pages 33-36
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2015s033

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Two statements on population and sustainable development produced by global scientific panels in 2002 and 2012


 

Wolfgang Lutz, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/̈ÖAW, WU), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Vienna Institute of Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU), Vienna, Austria

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 13, 2015, pages 37-45
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2015s037

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Differential mortality patterns from hydro-meteorological disasters: Evidence from cause-of-death data by age and sex


Emilio Zagheni, Department of Sociology and eScience Institute, University of Washington, Seattle, USA
Raya Muttarak, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/̈OAW, WU), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Vienna Institute of Demography,Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna, Austria
Erich Striessnig (corresponding author), Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/̈ÖAW, WU), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Vienna Institute of Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna, Austria

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 13, 2015, pages 47-70
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2015s047

Abstract:

This paper evaluates the heterogeneous impact of hydro-meteorological disasters on populations along the dimensions of age, sex, and human development. The analysis is based on previously untapped cause-of-death data over the period 1995– 2011 that were obtained from the WHO mortality database, and were based on the civil registration records of 63 countries/territories. Using these data, we evaluate patterns of mortality related to meteorological disasters in the spirit of model life tables.We observe that mortality rates from hydro-meteorological disasters for men are consistently higher than for women across all age groups, and that the differential by sex is larger for adults than for young children or the elderly. Furthermore, the sex differential in mortality becomes smaller with improvements in human development. Comparing our disaster fatalities with those recorded in the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT), we find that the number of deaths from hydro-meteorological disasters was underestimated in the WHO database, especially in the case of highimpact events. In the paper we discuss issues of data quality and data harmonisation for the study of the differential demographic impact of natural disasters. One of our main goals is to stimulate an interdisciplinary debate in this area.

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Daily mortality changes in Taiwan in the 1970s: An examination of the relationship between temperature and mortality


Zhongwei Zhao (corresponding author), Australian Demographic and Social Research Institute,Australian National University, 9 Fellows Road, Acton ACT 2601, AustraliaYuan Zhu, Research School of Finance, Actuarial Studies & Statistics, College of Business andEconomics, Australian National University, AustraliaEdwardJow-Ching Tu, Senior consultant, Asian Demographics and Retired Faculty of Hong KongUniversity of Sciences and Technology, Hong Kong

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 13, 2015, pages 71-90
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2015s071

Abstract:

Growing evidence indicates that world temperatures have increased in recent history, and that this trend is likely to continue in the future. The rise in global temperatures has been accompanied by an increase in extreme weather events, which often have devastating environmental, economic, demographic, and social effects. As concern about the impact of climate change has grown in recent years, there has been a considerable increase in the number of studies published on the effects of extreme temperatures. However, detailed, systematic, and historical investigations into the relationship between temperature and mortality relationship are still difficult to find. This study fills some of these gaps. By examining the impact of extreme temperatures on mortality in Taiwan in the 1970s, our aim is to answer the following questions: (1) Is a lower or a higher temperature recorded in winter or summer related to higher daily mortality? (2) Is mortality higher in particular years with extreme temperatures than it is in the corresponding periods of other years with normal temperatures? (3) Finally, if more extreme temperatures are indeed associated with higher mortality, what kinds of people tend to face higher mortality risks? This study shows that variations in daily mortality were related to changes in temperature in Taiwan over the study period. Cold temperatures in the winter, hot temperatures in the summer, and unusually cold or hot temperatures were all associated with higher mortality. In comparison with other times of the year, the proportions of people who died at old or very young ages were relatively high during cold periods. The proportions of deaths caused by cardiovascular diseases were also relatively high, and these deaths contributed to the high mortality levels in winter time. Meanwhile, during the hot periods relatively high proportions of children and young people died of injuries or poisoning, and relatively high proportions of people died of respiratory diseases; both of these causes of death were closely related to mortality increases in the summer. In comparison with recent decades, however, these patterns were more observable in the 1970s, when the public health and the socioeconomic development levels in Taiwan were not as advanced as they are today.

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Assessing the effectiveness of a social vulnerability index in predicting heterogeneity in the impacts of natural hazards: Case study of the Tropical Storm Washi flood in the Philippines


J. Andres F. Ignacio (corresponding author), Environmental Science for Social Change, Grace T. Cruz, Population Institute, University of the Philippines, Quezon City, PhilippinesFernando Nardi, Universit`a per Stranieri di Perugia, ItalySabine Henry, Department of Geography, University of Namur, Belgium

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 13, 2015, pages 91 - 121
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2015s091

Abstract:

As global warming and climate change predictions become increasingly certain,there is mounting pressure to gain a better understanding of disaster risk. Climate change is seen as a major contributing factor in the recent increases in the losses and damages attributed to hazard extremes. Vulnerability is one of the key components of risk. Yet identifying who the vulnerable segments of the population are, and to which specific hazards different groups are vulnerable, remains a challenge.Measuring social vulnerability has become an active area of research, with scholars attempting to capture the differential vulnerabilities of the population exposed to certain hazards. To address these research challenges, we developed in this study social vulnerability indices at the most basic level of governance in the Philippines using raw, individual-level census data for the entire country. Our goal in conducting this research is to establish relationships between the derived vulnerability measurements and flood exposure and the impacts of coastal flash floods triggered by Tropical Storm Washi in the southern Philippines in December2011. We find that exposure rather than vulnerability appears to play a greater role in the magnitude of the losses and damages resulting from this particular type o fhazard at the localized scale.

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Social vulnerability to floods in two coastalmegacities: New York City and Mumbai


Alex de Sherbinin (corresponding author), Center for International Earth Science Information Network(CIESIN), The Earth Institute, Columbia University, Guillem Bardy, ́Ecole Polytechnique, Paris, France

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 13, 2015, pages 131-165
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2015s131

Abstract:

In this paper we assess differential exposure to flooding in two coastal mega cities, New York and Mumbai, both of which suffered major flood-related disasters in the past decade. Specifically, we examine whether the most exposed populations are also the most socially vulnerable. First, we developed Social Vulnerability Indices(SoVIs) for each city with census data. We then overlaid the SoVI scores onto flood extent maps for Hurricane Sandy (New York, October 2012) and the Mumbaiflash floods (July 2005), as well as for the evacuation zones for New York, to examine patterns of differential exposure. Our results suggest a degree of differential exposure in New York, especially in the highest flood risk areas, and provide fairly clear evidence for differential exposure in Mumbai. However, differences in the input resolution and confidence in the data sets for Mumbai make the results more uncertain. The paper concludes with a discussion of the policy implications and the data needs for urban spatial vulnerability assessments.

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Who perceives what? A demographic analysis ofsubjective perception in rural Thailand


Jacqueline Meijer-Irons, Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology, University of Washington

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 13, 2015, pages 167-191
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2015s167

Abstract:

Rural households that rely on natural resources for their livelihoods are expected to face increased vulnerability due to climate variability. A number of empirical papers have assessed the impact of environmental shocks on these households,including demographic research that has investigated the impact of shocks on migration. To date, few studies have explicitly modeled how individual and household characteristics influence a household respondent’s subjective perceptions of environmental or other shocks. My paper uses a unique panel dataset from rural Thailand to predict a respondent’s probability of attributing a reduction in income to an environmental shock based on household composition and income, as well as on community-level eeffcts. Preliminary results suggest that household composition influences respondents’ perceptions of environmental risk, and that policies aimed at vulnerable communities should consider the life courses of the households within a given community.

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