On the age dynamics of learned societies— taking the example of the Austrian Academy of Sciences
Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 2007, pages 107-131
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2007s107
Gustav Feichtinger (1), Maria Winkler-Dworak (2), Inga Freund (3), Alexia Prskawetz (4) and Fernando Riosmena (5)
(1) Vienna Institute of Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna,
Austria and Institute of Mathematical Methods in Economics, Vienna University of
Technology, Vienna, Austria.
(2) Vienna Institute of Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna,
Austria.
(3) author for correspondence, Vienna Institute of Demography, Austrian Academy of
Sciences, Wohllebengasse 12-14, 1040 Vienna, Austria. Email: inga.freund@oeaw.ac.at
(4) Vienna Institute of Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna,
Austria.
(5) Institute of Behavioral Science and Department of Geography, University of
Colorado at Boulder.
Abstract
In a hierarchical organisation of stable size the annual intake is strictly determined by the number of deaths and a statutory retirement age (if there is one). In this paper we reconstruct the population of the Austrian Academy of Sciences from 1847 to 2005. For the Austrian Academy of Sciences we observe a shift of its age distribution towards older ages, which on the one hand is due to rising life expectancy, i.e., a rising age at death, as well as to an increased age at entry on the other hand. Therefore the number of new entrants has been fluctuating considerably—especially reflecting several statutory changes—and the length of tenure before reaching the age limit has declined during the second half of the last century. Based on alternative scenarios of the age distribution of incoming members— including a young, an old, the ‘current’ and a mixed-age model—we then project the population of the Austrian Academy and its ageing forward in time. Our results indicate that the ‘optimum policy’ would be to elect either young or old aged new members.