Does Postponement Explain the Trend to Later Childbearing in France
Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 2005, pages 83-107
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2005s83
Máire Ní Bhrolcháin (1) and Laurent Toulemon (2)
(1) Division of Social Statistics, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom. (Author for correspondence, Email: mnb@socsci.soton.ac.uk)
(2) Institut national d'études démographiques, Paris, France.
Abstract
Fertility rates in most developed societies have been declining at younger ages and rising at older ages. This phenomenon is widely referred to as reflecting the postponement of fertility. But is this an accurate description? The present paper considers whether recent changes in the age-pattern of childbearing in France can be described as postponement. The statistical features of time series of rates are distinguished from the underlying behavioural process generating them. Criteria for the presence of postponement are proposed. In the absence of detailed, longitudinal information on intentions, the occurrence or otherwise of postponement is assessed by indirect means. Some evidence is found consistent with fertility postponement in recent decades. However, it cannot be interpreted causally, and so cannot be used either to explain recent trends or to anticipate future trends. Much more detailed evidence is required to establish the existence of postponement in the behavioural sense than is generally assumed.
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