VID Colloquium
Transmission of Fertility Pattern in Mother-Daughter Relation
Beata Osiewalska, Cracow University of Economics, Department of Demography
Date: Thu, 31 Jan. 2013, Time: 10:00-11:00 am
The connection between fertility of parents and their children was investigated many times over the past century. It seems to be insignificant among pre-transitional populations, but becomes more important over time, especially in developed countries. Following Pearson’s example, it was widely adopted to use simple correlation analyses in such studies. In this study we will present how to use more advanced statistical models and methods to determine the occurrence and strength of examined relationships. Thus, we aim to investigate the intergenerational transmission of fertility in contemporary populations (in the case of mother-daughter relation in Austria) using the zero-inflated Poisson regression model with Bayesian inference. The considered model in fertility analysis allows us to treat childlessness as a qualitatively different state with possibly different determinants than parenthood (regardless of number of children). Bayesian inference in this study enables us to obtain covariates and their nonlinear function distributions (inclunding their uncertainty) and allows us to incorporate our a priori knowledge.
About the presenter
Beata Osiewalska is a Ph.D. student at Cracow University of Economics. She has graduated from Institute of Mathematics of the Jagiellonian University (2010) and Cracow University of Economics (2010). Trained as a mathematician and econometrician, she applies the acquired knowledge in practical demographic problems. Her main research interests cover fertility changes, especially inter-generational transmission of fertility patterns. In her studies she uses Bayesian analysis that provides with greater inference opportunities than standard methods.