VID Colloquium
Long term projections for the Austrian budget – an introduction to the MoF model
Stefan Schiman & Tobias Orischnig, Austrian Institute of Economic Research, Austrian Federal Ministry of Finance
Date: Wed, 26 Sep. 2012, Time: 10:00 - 11:00
Future demographic changes – in particular ageing populations – will have huge impacts on the situation of public finances: More people will depend on fewer people working. But not only demographics will change, other trends and factors are expected to influence public finances as well, together with lower potential growth due to a lower labour supply: Developments in the health care sector, education, support for families and unemployment. We try to assess the potential impact of these factors on Austria´s public finances in the long term (until 2050). We create a macro-economic model to assess possible future developments in the areas of health and long-term care, education, pensions and family support. We aggregate these projections and provide different scenarios of future developments to test the sensitivity of our projections.
About the presenterStefan Schiman is an economist at the Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO) and a lecturer at the Joint Vienna Institute. In 2008, he received a Master in Financial Economics the Maastricht University. Before joining WIFO, he worked at the Austrian Federal Ministry of Finance, the Institute for Advanced Studies and the Wegener Center for Climate & Global Change.
Tobias Orischnig is an economist at the Austrian Federal Ministry of Finance. He obtained his Master degree in International Economic and Business Studies from the University of Innsbruck in 2004. In his former position he was advisor to the executive director of the Asian Development Bank in Manila (Philippines). His research interests are Development Economics and Budget & Fiscal Economics.