VID Colloquium
The decline in marriage in Israel: Period or cohort effect?
Jona Schellekens, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Date: Wed, 29 Aug. 2012, Time: 16:00 - 17:00
Abstract: Two economic and one ideational explanation dominate the current debate over the decline in marriage. It has been difficult to test the hypothesis that the decline is the result of attitudinal change. However, the ideational hypothesis predicts that the decline in marriage partly is a cohort effect. Thus, the ideational hypothesis can be falsified by the absence of cohort influences in the decline. Three major findings emerge from our analysis of the Israeli censuses of 1972, 1983, 1995 and 2008. First, until 1990-94 the decline in marriage was a period effect. Second, after 1990-94, the decline was a cohort effect, as predicted by the hypothesis that the decline is the result of attitudinal change. Third, we replicate the results of previous research which has shown that the decline in marriage is not the result of an increase in female education, as predicted by the economic independence hypothesis.
About the presenterJona Schellekens is a demographer at the Department of Sociology and Anthropology, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem. He specializes in historical demography. His more recent publications include: “Family allowances and fertility: socio-economic differentials,” Demography 46 (2009): 451-468; and (with Frans van Poppel) “Marital fertility decline in the Netherlands: Child mortality, real wages and unemployment, 1860-1939,” Demography 49 (2012): 965-988.