Human capital-specific old-age dependency ratio: the case of Italy
Dimiter Philipov, Anne Goujon & Paola Di Giulio, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital
Date: Thu, 24 May 2012, Time: 10:00 - 11:00
Rise in human capital boosts economic growth and hence alleviates economic problems related to population ageing. Yet little research is available on the dynamics of this effect and on conditions under which it holds. We construct an old age dependency ratio (OADR) where populations in both the numerator and in the denominator are distinguished by their level of education. The dynamics of this human capital-specific OADR is examined using data for Italy. Multistate population methods were utilized for long-term projections under two scenarios: with constant and with increasing rates of transition to a higher educational degree. The human capital-specific OADR under the constant scenario produces a trend of population ageing that is faster than the trend received with the conventional OADR. I.e. under specific conditions, a constant or a moderately increasing human capital may cause aggravation of consequences of population ageing rather than their alleviation. The latter can be achieved under a faster increase in human capital.About the presenter
Dr. Dimiter Philipov is currently leader of the Comparative European Demography at the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/ÖAW, WU), Vienna Institute of Demography / Austrian Academy of Sciences. His recent research interests are fertility, reproductive decision-making and issues related to population ageing.