VID Colloquium
Computable General Equilibrium Models and Demographic Research
Robert E. Wright University of Strathclyde, Glasgow
Date: Thu, 13 October 2011 , Time: 16:15 - 17:15
A computer general equilibrium (CGE) model is a description of an economy using a system of simultaneous equations. The “equilibrium” notion implies that all the markets, sectors and industries are modelled together with corresponding inter-linkages, as opposed to partial equilibrium, which takes into account only a part of the system and neglects potential feed-backs between system components (i.e. general equilibrium effects). This seminar reports on a programme of demographic research based on a CGE model of the Scottish economy called AMOS developed at the Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde. The Scottish context is of particular interest since demographic momentum is such that the potential supply of labour in the future will likely decline (i.e. the native-born labour supply will shift left). Although AMOS is not in a strict sense a forecasting model, given a set of precise assumptions, it can be used to generate expected future time paths of key macroeconomic variables such as output, employment, unemployment, labour force participation, investment, wage rates, inflation and competitiveness. In this research, AMOS has been combined with a cohort-component population projection methodology in order to generate an economic-demographic simulation framework. It has been used to evaluate the macroeconomic effects of different future levels of fertility, mortality and net-migration. By varying these underlying assumptions (for example based on different levels of net-migration), alternative time paths are produced, which can be compared in order to evaluate the likely consequences of alternative policies.
Full abstract
About the presenter
Robert E. Wright, PhD, joined the University of Strathclyde in September 2005 as Professor of Economics in the Strathclyde Business School. From 1995 to 2005, he was Professor and University Chair in Economics in the Department of Economics at the University of Stirling and Vice-Dean (Research) of the Faculty of Management. From 1991 to 1994, he was Lecturer, then Senior Lecturer, in the Department of Political Economy at the University of Glasgow. Before moving to Scotland, he held positions in the Department of Economics at Birkbeck College, in the Centre for Population Studies at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and at the Institute for Research in Public Policy in Ottawa. His research interests are in the areas of population economics, labour economics, inequality and poverty, financial economics, environmental economics and applied econometrics and statistics. His publications include over 100 articles in refereed journals, 4 books and 22 book chapters. Further details, a CV, and most of his papers and articles are accessible at http://personal.strath.ac.uk/r.e.wright/.