VID Colloquium
Do extreme temperatures redistribute mortality rates? Evidence from Germany
Maike Neumann, Darmstadt University of Technology
Date: Thu, 17 May 2011 , Time: 11:00-12:00
Background: In this study we analyse the relationship between extreme temperature events and mortality in Germany. The main research questions are: Do heat events lead to rising mortality and if yes, are the effects only immidiate and compensated for in the near future or do they continue? Furthermore, differences between the heat impact of urban and rural environments are analysed.
Data and Methodology: Cause specific daily mortality and meteorological data is connected on the county level. We assume static as well as dynamic relations between extreme temperatures and mortality and use panel data estimation approaches.
Main Findings: We find that heat has a significant positive impact on mortality and thus a negative impact on public health. The strongest mortality effects can be measured on the days when heat occurs and the first week afterwards. The mortality increase ranges between 0.003 and 3.5 per 100,000 inhabitants depending on the particular cause specific sample. The effects increase when there are more consecutive days of heat. Our results are contrary to the Harvesting Hypothesis. Using meteorological climate scenarios we approximated that till the end of this century over 4100 additional deaths per year in Germany will be induced by the occurence of heat events. Furthermore, the environment plays an important role for the intensity of the heat impact. We estimated significantly higher increases in mortality in urban areas.
About the presenter
Maike Neumann joined the Chair of Applied Econometrics as a teaching and research assistant in May 2010. She reached the general qualification for University entrance in Darmstadt. After studying Mathematics for three semesters, she started her Diploma studies in Business Administration at the Goethe University in Frankfurt in 2005. Her Focus was on Finance and Quantitative Methods, with a particularly strong emphasis on econometrics. During her studies, she worked as a student assistant, performing different tasks in the support of research projects and also as a tutor for Bachelor students. In addition, she participated in the Erasmus Programme and spent a semester abroad at the University of Zurich. Her research interests are in the fields of applied econometrics, health economics and environmental economics.