VID Colloquium
Economic recession and fertility in the developed world
Tomáš Sobotka, VID
Date: Tue, 8 March 2011 , Time: 16:00-17:00
We review the effects of economic recessions on fertility in the developed world. We study how fertility levels and trends are affected by economic downturns, as measured by declining GDP levels, falling consumer confidence and rising unemployment. We also discuss particular mechanisms and pathways through which the recession affects fertility behavior, including the effects of economic uncertainty, changes in the housing market and rising enrolment in higher education. Most studies find that fertility tends to be pro-cyclical and often rises and declines with the ups and downs of the business cycle. Usually, these aggregate effects are relatively small (typically, a few percentage points) and of relatively short durations; in addition they often seem to influence especially the timing of childbearing rather than the level (quantum) of fertility. Therefore, major long-term fertility shifts often continue seemingly uninterrupted during the recession—including the fertility declines before and during the ‘Great Depression’ of the 1930s and before and during the oil shock crises of the 1970s. Changes in the opportunity costs of childbearing and fertility behavior during economic downturn vary by sex, age, social status and number of children; childless and young adults are usually most affected. Furthermore, various policies and institutions modify or even reverse the relationship between recessions and fertility. The first evidence pertaining to the recent recession falls in line with these findings: In most countries, the recession has brought a decline in the number of births and fertility rates, often marking a sharp halt to the previous decade of rising fertility rates.
About the presenter
Tomáš Sobotka is Research Scientist at the Vienna Institute of Demography (Austrian Academy of Sciences). He received his PhD in Demography from the Population Research Centre, University of Groningen (the Netherlands) in 2004. He studies a broad range of topics, including low fertility, changes in family, childlessness, measurement issues, fertility intentions and assisted reproduction as well as the interrelation between migration, fertility and population trends. In 2008 he has co-authored a three-volume monograph on “Childbearing Trends and Policies in Europe” (accessible at http://www.demographic-research.org/special/7/). He participates in various data collection and publication activities and, together with Joshua Goldstein and Vladimir Shkolnikov he has initiated a Human Fertility Database Project that aims to provide access to detailed and standardised data on births and fertility in countries with high-quality data (see http://www.humanfertility.org). Further details, a CV, and most of his papers and articles are accessible at http://www.oeaw.ac.at/vid/staff/staff_tomas_sobotka.shtml.