VID Colloquium
Ageing of regional populations in Turkey: multi-state projections to 2060
Ceren Inan, Institut d'Études Démographiques de l'Université Bordeaux IV (IEDUB), France
Date: Tue, 11 January 2011 , Time: 13:30-14:30
In Turkey, national demographic trends dissimulate a strong spatial heterogeneity between eastern and western regions of the country, especially in terms of fertility and internal migrations. South-eastern women's high number of descendants contrasts with western women's very low level of fertility, largely insufficient for the replacement of generations. At the same time, destinations and intensities of internal emigration compose a large spatial spectrum of values and are geographically correlated. Even so, in existing population projections of Turkey, this heterogeneity is rarely considered: at the best trough projection hypothesis on the evolution of fertility and, most commonly, by ignoring the heterogeneous internal migrations. It follows that the expected future ageing of Turkish population must rather be analyzed through an infra-national approach, by projections that can take account of spatial demographic heterogeneity and manage it. This study proposes to undertake multi-state projections, which permits to manage spatial demographic heterogeneity of Turkey by stratification. These projections, from 2010 to 2060, are based on a robust geographical division of the country into regions (NUTS level-1), considered as states between which individuals could migrate, with their specific natural and (inter-regional) migratory demographic dynamics. The aging of the population of Turkey is measured by the proportion of persons who are aged 65 years and over.
About the presenter
Ceren Inan is research fellow at Institut d'Études Démographiques de l'Université Bordeaux IV (IEDUB) in France. Specialist of workforce demographics, his main research interest focuses on demographic dynamics of workforce population and whole professional careers -from school to retirement-, as well as, interactions between professional occupation, various demographic life events (cohabitation, fertility, migrations, etc.) and social characteristics (professional status, level of education, belonging to a cultural sub-group, etc.). He works also on general and local demographics of France and Turkey. Demographic methodology, data management and simulations compose a recurrent transversal thematic in his researches. Hence, most of his publications propose new indicators, interrogations on data quality and auxiliary or direct use of projections (cohort-component, multi-state or micro simulations). After his studies in Sociology and Demography at the University of Strasbourg, Ceren Inan pursued his Demographic formation at the University of Bordeaux where he obtained his Ph.D. in 2009. He occupies different research and teaching functions at the University of Bordeaux since 2005.