VID Colloquium
East Asia Fertility
Tomas Frejka, Independent consultant
Date: Wed, 27 May 2009 , Time: 14:00-15:00
The project focuses on fertility developments in four East Asia countries: Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Early in the 21st century these countries had the lowest fertility in the world with total period fertility rates ranging from 0.97 in Hong Kong to 1.23 in Japan. There is a growing preoccupation with the future decline of these populations and their ageing. These concerns are justified as analyses of the institutional and socio-economic environment affecting childbearing point to the likelihood of protracted very low fertility in the foreseeable future. The analysis of cohort fertility developments reinforces the conclusion that fertility is likely to remain very low for several years if not decades, thus underlining the justification for the concern for rapid population ageing and shrinkage and their consequences. Pronatalist policies are being implemented but thus far of questionable effectiveness.
About the presenter
Tomas Frejka, presently an independent consultant; previously Senior Associate of the Population Council, New York (1969-1991), and Senior Population Expert at the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, Geneva, Switzerland (1991-1996). Was Adjunct Professor of Public Health at Columbia University, New York. Published over 100 articles and papers and 17 books dealing mainly with population projections, fertility, contraception, induced abortion, and international migration. Recently he has focused on issues of fertility in advanced countries (see, e.g., http://www.demographic-research.org/special/7/).
For more information please see Jones, Gavin, Paulin Tay Straughan and Angelique Chan (2009; eds.). Ultra-low Fertility in Pacific Asia: Trends, Causes and Policy Issues. New York: Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group (book review by Tomas Frejka, published in Population and Development Review 35(2) in June 2009).