Permafrost in Austria - PART I: Impact of climate change on alpine permafrost and related hydrological effects

Project Management: Prof. Dr. Karl KRAINER, Institute for Geology and Paleontology, University of Innsbruck
Duration: 4 years (beginning 2007)


Abstract

In the Alps the cryosphere is most intensively affected by climatic change. As the retreat of glaciers since the Little Ice Age is well documented, the distribution, thickness and ice volume of alpine permafrost is almost unknown. The objectives of this project are (a) a quantitative documentation of alpine permafrost in a well defined high alpine catchment, (b) the reaction of alpine permafrost on climate change, and (c) the modelling of the discharge pattern under scenaria of changing permafrost. The study area is located in the Kaunertal (Ötztal Alps) and covers an area of approximately 5 km². Active rock glaciers and patterned ground indicate the presence of alpine permafrost. We plan to study the present distribution, thickness, and ice content of alpine permafrost by applying a combination of different methods including mapping, study of aerial photographs, geophysical surveying, ground temperatures etc.


Contact:
Prof. Dr. Karl Krainer
Institute for Geology and Paleontology
University of Innsbruck
Innrain 52, 6020 Innsbruck
T +43 512 507-5593
F +43 512 507-2914
Karl.Krainer@uibk.ac.at

Permafrost in Austria - PART II: Permafrost in rock mass and its effect on ground stability and rock fall

Project Management: Dr. Michael STAUDINGER, Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics, Regional Office for Salzburg and Upper Austria
Duration: 4 years (beginning 2007)


Abstract

In the Alps the glaciers and permafrost are most intensively affected by climatic change. In comparison to the retreat of glaciers, the distribution, thickness and ice volume of alpine permafrost is almost unknown. Unstable peaks and increased erosion on steep mountain flanks indicate that alpine permafrost is also retreating. The different types of alpine permafrost and their climatically induced variations strongly affect the morphological development, the microclimate, the fauna and flora, and the hydrological regime of high alpine regions. These effects will result in increased alpine hazards and geotechnical problems with strong effects on tourism and environment. The influence of climate change on permafrost will be investigated by monitoring rock temperatures, meteorological, hydrological, geophysical and geodetic features around the Sonnblick peak (3105m) and by analyzing maps and photographic documents. The reactions of alpine permafrost on climatic changes in the future will be modelled with models rock - permafrost models.


Contact:
Dr. Michael Staudinger
Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics
Regional Office for Salzburg and Upper Austria
Freisaalweg 16, 5020 Salzburg
T +43 662 626301-24
F +43 662 625838
michael.staudinger@zamg.ac.at

Monitoring and Predicting Acceleration and Deceleration of Large Landslides - Part of TU Vienna

Project Management: Prof. Dr. Ewald BRÜCKL, Institut für Geodäsie und Geophysik, Technische Universität Wien
Duration: 4 years (beginning 2008)

Contact:
Prof. Dr. Ewald Brückl
Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics
Vienna University of Technology
Gusshausstraße 27-29, 1040 Vienna
T +43 1 58801-12820
F +43 1 58801-12892
ebrueckl@luna.tuwien.ac.at

Monitoring and Predicting Acceleration and Deceleration of Large Landslides - Part of TU Graz (Geodetic investigations)

Project Management: Prof. Dr. Fritz K. BRUNNER, Institute of Engineering Geodesy and Measurement Systems, Graz University of Technology
Duration: 4 years (beginning 2008)


Abstract

Deep creep in rock is a frequently observed phenomenon on high alpine valley slopes. These mass movements may exhibit episodic phases of high sliding velocities, and examples are known where the motion changed to a rapid and catastrophic rock slide. Of particular interest would be an understanding of the accelerations and decelerations of the landslide motions which occur frequently without any recognizable correlation with external influences. The field investigations concentrate on the Gradenbach landslide and comprise GPS surveys, seismic surveys (TUW) and a newly developed strain rosette. The large strain rosette consists of three embedded fibre optic sensors (5 m long). Its resolution is about 103 higher than the GPS results, but at 1 kHz. This data together with the monitoring of seismic processes (TUW) should make it possible to determine the nature of the acceleration and deceleration of landslide motions. Based on this knowledge, short and long term prediction methods will be developed which are essential for the mitigation of catastrophically accelerating mass movements.


Contact:
Prof. Dr. Fritz K. Brunner
Institute of Engineering Geodesy and Measurement Systems
Graz University of Technology
Steyrergasse 30, 8010 Graz
T +43 316 8736321
F +43 316 8736820
fritz.brunner@tugraz.at

Mountain floods - regional joint probability estimation of extreme events

Project Management: Prof. Dr. Günter BLÖSCHL, Institute for Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering, Vienna University of Technology
Duration: 3 years (beginning 2008)


Abstract

This project analyses the probabilistic characteristics of floods in a regional context to provide insight into the causal factors. Dependence models (copulas) are used to represent the joint probabilities of flood characteristics, specifically, the dependence between flood peak and flood volume, and the dependence between flood flows at the tributaries and the main stem of river confluences. Synthetic runoff time series are generated to identify the most suitable copula functions and parameters, which are tested against flood data of numerous catchments in Slovakia and Austria. The overall outcomes of this project are a better understanding of the nature of dependence as a function of flood magnitude, its causal controls and its spatial and temporal variability. These new insights are the basis for more accurate extrapolations to extreme events and to ungauged locations than is possible with standard methods.


Contact:
Prof. Dr. Günter Blöschl
Institute for Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering
Vienna University of Technology
Karlsplatz 13, 1040 Vienna
T +43 1 58801-22315
F +43 1 58801-22399
bloeschl@hydro.tuwien.ac.at

Hydrological modelling of peak runoff in alpine catchments under climate change scenarios

Project Management: Dr. Stefan ACHLEITNER, alpS - Zentrum für Naturgefahren Management GmbH
Duration: 2 years (beginning 2008)


Abstract

According to IPCC consensus, significant changes of rainfall and temperature patterns are expected for the future climate. The direct impact on the runoff behaviour is of special concern with regard to large flow events potentially inducing flash floods. Goal of the project is to assess alterations in peak runoff during storm events considering climate change scenarios. Alpine catchments are affected in particular, since here both, precipitation and temperature modifications impact on the runoff generation. The approach refines quite coarse outputs from Global Climate Models (GCM) in the space and time domains by pattern scaling techniques to obtain feasible input for the hydrological modelling of potentially critical future peak runoff events. Uncertainty of future peak runoff is considered by the use of GCM integrations of four meaningful greenhouse gas emission scenarios, which account for possible mankind's future behaviour. The expected project outcome is to get a deeper insight into possible future peak runoff in the selected alpine catchments.


Contact:
Dr. Stefan Achleitner
alpS - Zentrum für Naturgefahren Management GmbH
Grabenweg 3, 6020 Innsbruck
T +43 512 392929-31
F +43 512 392929-39
achleitner@alps-gmbh.com

Distributed Saturation and Flow Velocity Measurement in Alpine Hillslopes

Project Management: DI Gerhard KAPELLER, Department of Infrastructure, Unit of Hydraulic Engineering, University of Innsbruck
Duration: 3 years (ab 2008)


Abstract

The closer understanding of the hydraulic and geotechnical subsurface processes in hillslopes is still a challenge for engineers. By using fibre optic cables the common triggers of potential landslides, i.e. the local filter velocity as well as degree of saturation, can be obtained in a distributed way, based on the Distributed Fiber Optic Temperature (DFOT) measurement along the cable. With a spatial resolution up to 25 cm a high information density is achieved along the fibre optic cable. Due to a measuring range of a few km the whole hillslope can be observed. The primary objective of the project is the introduction and the verification of suitability of this innovative technology to the monitoring of hillslopes. Based on the fine spatial resolution and the knowledge of the main triggers behaviour due to rain-fall infiltration the complex process inside potential shallow landslides will be more understandable.


Contact:
DI Gerhard Kapeller
Department of Infrastructure
Unit of Hydraulic Engineering
University of Innsbruck
Technikerstr. 13, 6020 Innsbruck
T +43 512 507-6911
F +43 512 507-2912
gerhard.kapeller@uibk.ac.at