Climate change impacts on potential distribution and landscape-scale dynamics of Robinia pseudacacia L. in Austria

Project Management: Dr. Stefan DULLINGER, VINCA - Vienna Institute for Nature Conservation and Analyses
Duration: 3 years (beginning 2005)


Abstract

Invasive alien plants cause considerable ecological and economical problems globally. In Austria, Robinia pseudoacacia, a leguminous tree native to North America, is currently limited to the warmer eastern parts of the country, where it both is a silvicultural pest and a major threat to a couple of rare and endangered habitats. Climate change, however, may relax this regional constraint and trigger a new wave of invasion into currently unoccupied cooler parts of the country. This project has two main objectives. It shall first provide a spatially explicit assessment of black locust invasion risk in Austria under scenarios of forthcoming climate change by means of predictive habitat modelling. Secondly, it will experimentally evaluate the effects of interacting global change components (climate change and nitrogen deposition) on black locust's ability to colonise new habitats. The results will indicate if ongoing environmental changes are likely to promote further expansion of an aggressive alien tree in Austria and shall guide the formulation of regionalized management directives.


Contact:
Dr. Stefan Dullinger
VINCA - Vienna Institute for Nature Conservation
and Analyses
Gießergasse 6/7, 1090 Vienna
T +43 1 4029675
F +43 1 4029675 10
stefan.dullinger@vinca.at

Climate change and heavy-precipitation weather patterns in Austria

Project Management: Dr. Petra SEIBERT, Institute of Meteorology, University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna
Duration: 2 years (beginning 2005)


Abstract

Global circulation models used to investigate climate change scenarios have a typical spatial resolution, depending on the type of run, between 2.5 and 1 degree. At such resolutions, orographic effects important for the occurrence, magnitude and distribution of precipitation in Austria are not simulated well. This applies even more to extreme events such as heavy precipitation events. Lee cyclogenesis, one of the most important synoptic situations for precipitation in the south and east of Austria, tends to be underestimated or even missed in coarse-resolution models. The reliability of scenario predictions for the Alpine region are therefore difficult to evaluate. In a previous project (Startclim.4) a method was developed to identify synoptic patterns which are associated with heavy precipitation in Austria using a back-trajectory clustering algorithm, based on data of the 15 year re-analysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF, 1979-1993) in conjunction with Austrian daily climate station data. This study focussed on the development of the clustering method, the identification of regions with similar heavy precipitation patterns, and the investigation of the precipitation patterns for the different synoptic situations identified. The next step proposed here is to apply this methodology to the past and to future climate scenarios in order to study how the frequency and intensity of synoptic patterns which are responsible for heavy precipitation in Austria has developed in the past ~25 years, how well the statistics of the occurrence of these patterns is reproduced by GCM control runs and how the occurrence of these patterns would change in simulated future climate scenarios.


Contact:
Dr. Petra Seibert
Institute of Meteorology
University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences
Peter-Jordan-Str. 82, 1190 Vienna
T +43 1 47654-5613
F +43 1 47654-5610
petra.seibert@boku.ac.at

Socio-Economic Impact of Global Change Scenarios on Winter and Summer Tourism in Austria

Project Management: Dr. Franz PRETTENTHALER, Institute of Technology and Regional Policy, Joanneum Research
Duration: 3 years (beginning 2005)


Abstract

Out of all industrialised nations, Austria earns the highest share of GDP/capita in its tourism sector. Its economy highly depends on tourism and is vulnerable to climate change related changes of this variable. Additionally winter tourism is becoming increasingly important compared to summer tourism, both in terms of overnight stays as well as income generated. Given these facts of obviously high economic vulnerability of the Austrian economy to demand shocks arising from weather and climate variability this research project aims to provide a quantitative evaluation of socio-economic vulnerability on a regional scale. Realistic regional climate change scenarios from GCM-models are derived and it is investigated how the associated demand shocks impact tourism and other related sectors, whose input-output relationships with tourism should be assessed rigorously, and quantified on a regional scale. The research outcomes should give communities and policy makers valuable information and adequate options for action. The methodology developed in this pilot project aims at enabling other interested communities to carry out similar studies in the future.


Contact:
Dr. Franz Prettenthaler
Institute of Technology and Regional Policy
Joanneum Research
Elisabethstr. 20, 8010 Graz
T +43 316 876-1455
F +43 316 876-9-1455
Franz.Prettenthaler@joanneum.at

Eurasian glacier recession and environmental warming (EGREW), a zonal comparison study

Project Management: Dr. Astrid LAMBRECHT,Institute of Meteorology and Geophysics , University of Innsbruck

Duration: 2 years (beginning 2007)


Abstract

Alpine type glaciers show a strong reaction to observed climatic changes worldwide. In most areas glaciers retreated considerably, while the global mean temperature increased by about 0.6°C. For many regions in continental Asia melt-water from glaciers is an important source during dry periods. A comparison between well studied glaciers in the Alps and the glacier evolution along the Eurasian mountains from the Alps to Southern Siberia will provide a new insight into the influence of climatic conditions on glaciation. For most regions historic data are available which will be combined with modern field observations and remote sensing data to determine changes in the glacier systems during the last 30-40 years, with a focus on the development of supraglacial debris cover. The comparison of all regions allows a conclusion on the overall conditions of the regional ice cover and its potential future development. The significance of the glacier systems for the seasonal and long-term water production will be quantified.


Contact:
Dr. Astrid Lambrecht
Institute of Meteorology and Geophysics
University of Innsbruck
Innrain 52, 6020 Innsbruck
T +43 512 507-5494
F +43 512 507-2924
astrid.lambrecht@uibk.ac.at
www.uibk.ac.at/meteo

Monte-Carlo simulations for predicting climate change driven range expansion of the allergenic common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) in Austria

Project Management: Dr. Franz ESSL, Umweltbundesamt; Prof. Dr. Gero VOGL, Faculty of Physics, University of Vienna
Duration: 2 years (beginning 2007)


Abstract

The strong effect of temperature in the habitat model of A.artemisiifolia suggests that ragweed is among the climatically limited invaders, and that a substantially warmer climate will likely trigger and accelerate its spread into yet uncolonized and uncolonizable areas. We compare three different approaches for modelling the spread. We conclude that analytical reaction-diffusion models do not provide a trustable foundation for a forecast of the further spread of A. artemisiifolia in the years to come. An allowance for the details of the habitat is a must in order to establish a reliable forecast.


Contact:
Dr. Franz Essl
Umweltbundesamt
Spittelauer Lände 5, 1090 Vienna
T +43 1 313 04-3323
F +43 1 313 04-3700
Franz.Essl@umweltbundesamt.at
www.umweltbundesamt.at

Prof. Dr. Gero Vogl
Faculty of Physics
University of Vienna
Strudlhofgasse 4, 1090 Vienna
T +43 1 4277-513 05
F +43 1 4277-9513
gero.vogl@univie.ac.at
www.univie.ac.at/scatteringspectroscopy

Investigating the Linkage of Climate Warming and Mercury (Hg) accumulation in oligotrophic lake food webs in the Canadian Arctic and Austrian Alps

Project Management: Mag. Nikolaus GANTNER, Department of Environmental Biology, University of Guelph; Günter KÖCK, Austrian Academy of Sciences; Dr. Derek MUIR, Environment Canada
Duration: 2 years (beginning 2007)


Abstract

The general objective of this research project is to examine the vulnerability of landlocked Arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus) to increased mercury (Hg) exposure due to climate warming within the Canadian Arctic archipelago and the Austrian Alps. Global Circulation Models (GMCs) predict maximum warming in high mountain and polar regions. Due to similar environmental characteristics high-altitude and high-latitude lakes are very sensitive ecosystems where even slight environmental changes may substantially affect ecosystem function. Studies on Arctic char from Austrian high mountain lakes and Canadian polar lakes have shown that water temperature is the driving force of metal accumulation and stress response in fish from these sensitive ecosystems. The results indicate metal accumulation and level of stress to increase with rising summer temperatures. However, there is still a considerable lack of knowledge on the pathways and processes controlling delivery of Hg to Arctic and Alpine aquatic environments. For 2007-08 we plan to investigate changes in concentrations of Hg contamination over time in landlocked Arctic char from lakes in the Canadian Arctic and the Austrian Alps. We will: investigate factors influencing contaminant levels in landlocked char such as the influence of sampling time, water temperature, diet and climate warming; determine long term (15-20 year) temporal trends of mercury in landlocked Arctic char from four Arctic lakes by analysis of annual sample collections (as part of ongoing studies); compare data from Arctic lakes with those from Austrian high mountain lakes; compare the current status of Hg contamination in Austrian high mountain lakes with data from previous studies in the 1990s.


Contact:
Mag. Nikolaus Gantner
Department of Environmental Biology
University of Guelph
Guelph, Ontario, N1G2W1
T +1 519 824 4120-58627
F +1 905 336-6430
ngantner@uoguelph.ca
Homepage

Dr. Günter Köck
Austrian Academy of Sciences
Dr. Ignaz Seipel-Platz 2, 1010 Vienna
T +43 1 51581-1271
F +43 1 51581 1275
guenter.koeck@oeaw.ac.at
or
Institute of Zoology
University of Innsbruck
Technikerstr. 25, 6020 Innsbruck
T +43 512 507-6196
F +43 512 507-2930
guenter.goeck@uibk.ac.at
Homepage

Dr. Derek Muir
Environment Canada
Burlington, ON L7R 4A6, Canada
T +1 905 319-6921
F +1 905 336-6430
derek.muir@ec.gc.ca
Homepage

Franz Josef Land Environmental Research, Monitoring and Assessment Project: A Pilot Study

Project Management: Dr. Wolfgang SCHÖNER, Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics, Austria
Duration: 2 years (beginning 2007)


Contact:
Dr. Wolfgang Schöner
Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics, Austria
Hohe Warte 38, 1190 Vienna
T +43 1 36036-2290
F +43 1 36026-72
w.schoener@zamg.ac.at

Climate change response of sensitive habitats and landscapes in Austria (CROSS)

Project Management: Dr. Thomas WRBKA, Institute of Ecology and Conservation Biology, University of Vienna; Dr. Wolfgang LOIBL, Austrian Research Centers GmbH, ARC systems research, Spatial Systems
Duration: 2 years (beginning 2007)


Abstract

Based on recent world-wide assessments, climate change is now regarded as a major biodiversity threat in coming decades. In Austria, recent empirical studies provide evidence, that global warming can drive vascular plant species of the nival and alpine belt on the edge of extinction. But despite the fact that lowland regions with a higher share of semi-natural habitats embedded in cultivated land are also substantially contributing to biodiversity in Austria surprisingly little is known about their sensitivity and possible responses to climate change. The outlined project is addressing this knowledge gap by presenting an approach that couples modelled high-resolution climate data with data of habitat distribution of vascular plants in representative landscape samples. Expert knowledge about the sensitivity of semi-natural and cultivated habitats in such agricultural landscapes will be used to assess the potential impact of changing temperature and precipitation patterns on regional biodiversity.


Contact:
Dr. Thomas Wrbka
Institute of Ecology and Conservation Biology
University of Vienna
Althanstr. 14, 1090 Vienna
T +43 1 4277-54375
F +43 1 4277-9542
thomas.wrbka@univie.ac.at

Dr. Wolfgang LOIBL
Austrian Research Centers GmbH
ARC systems research
Spatial Systems
Donaucitystraße 1 - Techgate Tower, 1220 Vienna
T +43 50550-4587
F +43 50550-4599
wolfgang.loibl@arcs.ac.at

Climate change impacts on energy use for space heating and cooling in Austria II (HEAT.at)

Project Management: Mag. Dr. Andreas GOBIET und Mag. Christoph TÖGHOFER, Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz

Duration: 2 years (beginning 2007)


Abstract

Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf Heiz- und Kühlenergiebedarf in Österreich II (HEAT.at)

The project HEAT.AT investigates the impact of climate change on heating and cooling energy demand in Austria under different socio-economic scenarios. Specific reference buildings will be used to model the response of different building types to temperature changes according to the Austrian implementation of the European Building Directive (EPBD). This specific energy demand for each reference building will be combined with a regionalised database of the current building stock in Austria and heating and cooling degree days, which was generated within the project StartClim2006.F. Furthermore, a climate scenario and scenarios for the Austrian building stock considering population trends, for legal regulations, and for building technologies will be described, integrated, and analysed with respect to the impact of climate change on the demand for heating fuels and the currently predominant cooling energy carrier electricity.


Contact:
Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change
University of Graz
Leechgasse 25, 8010 Graz
www.wegcenter.at
Mag. Dr. Andreas Gobiet
T +43 316 380-8448
F +43 316 380-9830
andreas.gobiet@uni-graz.at
Mag. Christoph Töglhofer
T +43 316 380-8446
F +43 316 380-9830
christoph.toeglhofer@uni-graz.at

Adequacy of mitigation and adaptation options for different regions in Austria

Project Management: DI Franz Sinabell, WIFO
Duration: 2 years (beginning 2007)


Abstract

Optionen von Anpassungs- und Vermeidungsstrategien für Österreich in einem regionalen Kontext

The research project aims at analysing and summarising the state of the art of evaluating mitigation and adaptation options that serve the purpose of climate protection and sustainable development as addressed by international conventions. How well these alternatives fit to a concrete situation will be analysed in the case of Austria. The criteria are environmental effectiveness, economic efficiency and social cohesion. In a quantitative effort, a multi-region computable general equilibrium analysis will be used in order to analyse which climate change impacts occur in the long run, which adaptation activities are induced under different incentive regimes, and finally which economic impacts result from climate change under adaptation under these different incentive regimes.


Contact:
DI Franz Sinabell
WIFO
Arsenal, Objekt 20, 1030 Vienna
T +43 1 7982601481
F +43 1 798 93 86
sinabell@wifo.ac.at
Homepage

Building regional capacities for portfolio-development and adaptive experimentation

Project Management: DI Mag. Dr. Harald Rohracher, MSc., und Philipp Späth, M.A., IFZ - Inter-University Research Centre for Technology, Work and Culture; DI Dr. Matthias K. Weber, M.A., Austrian Research Centers GmbH, ARC systems research, Technology Policy
Duration: 2 years (beginning 2007)


Abstract

Strategies to mitigate and adopt to climate change have to address different geographical scales and require mutually supporting activities at different governance levels. There is a great potential to develop and implement such strategies at the regional level, where tight social networks and initiatives can be linked with national and international carbon management programmes. Moreover, regionalised global climate change data are now available to support strategy processes profoundly influenced by regional specificities. The project elaborates a process design for developing regional portfolios of climate change adaptation and mitigation measures and applies this design in a participative strategy process for an alpine, rural district in Upper Styria (Murau). Building on previous research on vision building (Leitbilder) in Murau and other regions with high awareness regarding localised sustainable energy systems, Murau is expected to provide good practice and institutional starting points that should be assessed with regard to their transferability.


Contact:
IFZ - Inter-University Research Centre for Technology, Work and Culture
Schlögelgasse 2, 8010 Graz
DI Mag. Dr. MSc. Harald Rohracher
T +43 316 813909-24
F +43 316 810274
rohracher@ifz.tugraz.at
Philipp Späth, M.A.
T +43 316 813909-22
F +43 316 810274
spaeth@ifz.tugraz.at

DI Dr. Matthias K. Weber, M.A.
Austrian Research Centers GmbH
ARC systems research
Technology Policy
Donau-City-Strasse 1, 1220 Vienna
T +43 50550-4561
F +43 50550-4599
matthias.weber@arcs.ac.at