During periods of world wide depression or drawn-out stagnation, monetary problems tend to dominate economic discussion. And so they do at present in Japan and Euro-Europe. Interest rates are low now and trigger long-term investment projects, e.g. long term basic research. Historically quite unusually, they also lead to large international capital movements into the world's richest nation, the USA - capital movements that are largely financed by East Asian and South East Asian Central Banks and to a lesser extent by Europe. Since 1973, exchange rates (the prices of one currency against another) have lost their last link to gold via the US-dollar. They have become highly unstable. Consequently analysis of their likely movements is of the greatest importance for business decisions in a globalised world. But this is a difficult endeavour. Do exchange rates merely follow a random walk or are systematic effects predominant after all?

Moderator:
Gunther Tichy (ÖAW)

Veranstalter:
Österreichische Akademie der Wissenschaften (ÖAW) und Industriellenvereinigung Wien

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